France

vs

Spain

Semifinal · Tuesday 14 July, 02:00 BST · AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

France eased past Morocco 2-0 to reach a third straight World Cup semifinal, while Spain needed a stoppage-time Mikel Merino goal, and a spell of chaos after Thibaut Courtois went off injured, to edge past Belgium. Plenty are already calling this the true final: France's front four against a Spain side that has conceded once all tournament, and it doubles as Didier Deschamps's last stand, his 26th match in charge at a World Cup, breaking Helmut Schon's old record, in what is his final tournament after 14 years as manager. The winner meets England or Argentina on Sunday.

France — Les Bleus

The predicted XI has Mike Maignan in goal behind a back four of Lucas Digne, William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano and Jules Kounde, with Adrien Rabiot and Aurelien Tchouameni holding, and Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise and Desire Doue in behind Kylian Mbappe in a 4-2-3-1. Tchouameni is genuinely touch and go with a thigh issue and remains a game-time call, with Manu Kone the direct alternative if he isn't risked from the start, so that's worth double-checking closer to kickoff. Doue's own spot is also live, with Bradley Barcola the alternative on the left, and Deschamps isn't expected to confirm which of the two starts until the morning of the game.

Mbappe was withdrawn in the second half against Morocco with an ankle sprain but is expected to be fine to start, and he now has eight goals this tournament, level with Messi at the top of the Golden Boot race after his goal in the quarterfinal. Dembele and Mbappe have combined for 19 created chances between them this summer, and with Olise continuing to break tournament creativity records from the other side, France's front four is the most dangerous grouping left in the competition on paper. France have also reached all four of their last World Cup semifinals, winning the last three without conceding.

Spain — La Roja

The predicted XI has Unai Simon in goal behind a back four of Marc Cucurella, Aymeric Laporte, Pau Cubarsi and Pedro Porro, with Fabian Ruiz, Rodri and Dani Olmo across midfield, and Nico Williams, Mikel Oyarzabal and Lamine Yamal across the front in a 4-3-3. The back four picks itself again, but other outlets see it differently further forward, predicting Pedri back in for Ruiz and Alex Baena preferred to Williams instead. There's also a growing case being made for Merino to start outright after becoming the first player in World Cup history to score a knockout-round winner as a substitute in back-to-back ties.

Reaching the semifinal was the target set before a ball was kicked, and Spain have got there playing the most cohesive, possession-dominant football of any side left in the tournament. They had gone six games without conceding before Belgium's Charles De Ketelaere finally got one past them, and are unbeaten in 36 matches outside of shootouts, one short of Argentina's all-time record. Penalties are the one blemish: Spain have won just once in five World Cup shootouts and lost last year's Nations League final on spot kicks.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Rodri vs Aurelien Tchouameni. This is the zone that decides the game: if Rodri sets the tempo unchallenged, Spain can pull France's block around until it cracks, but Tchouameni is exactly the kind of ball-winner built to stop that happening. His fitness is the whole tie in miniature. If he's right, France get the platform to break at pace; if he isn't, Spain's control could be difficult to interrupt for long spells.

Prediction

The Opta supercomputer gives France a 43.9% chance of winning in 90 minutes, the largest single outcome but the tightest split of any match previewed so far, with Spain on 29.0% and a draw on 27.1%. This is genuinely attack against defense: France have the individual quality to break down anyone, but Spain have conceded only once all tournament and rarely give anything away cheaply, and their own strength through the middle is exactly the kind of test France's pivot hasn't faced yet. Mbappe feels overdue extending his Golden Boot lead rather than just matching it, and with Olise offering a second source of goals, France's greater individual quality in the final third should just about be enough, though Spain's habit of finding a substitute match-winner in Merino makes a reply from the bench a real possibility.

France 2-1 Spain — Mbappe, Olise; Merino

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Argentina

vs

Switzerland

Quarterfinal · Sunday 12 July, 02:00 BST · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

Argentina trailed Egypt 2-0 with eleven minutes left and still won it, Cristian Romero, Messi and Enzo Fernandez scoring three times inside thirteen frantic minutes. Switzerland went the other way entirely, offering Colombia almost nothing in 120 goalless minutes before Gregor Kobel saved a penalty in the shootout and Ruben Vargas converted the winner, sending them into their first World Cup quarterfinal since 1954. Neither side has lost in regulation at this tournament, and one of those streaks ends in Kansas City. The winner meets Norway or England in the semifinal.

Argentina — La Albiceleste

The predicted XI has Emiliano Martinez in goal behind a back four of Nicolas Tagliafico, Lisandro Martinez, Cristian Romero and Nahuel Molina, with Leandro Paredes, Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister and Rodrigo De Paul across a flat midfield four, and Lionel Messi partnering Julian Alvarez up front in a 4-4-2. There's no fresh team news out of the Argentina camp this week, and this is the same shape and personnel that started against Egypt. Some outlets have pencilled in Lautaro Martinez alongside Messi instead of Alvarez, but the version here keeps faith with the pairing that got them through the last round.

Messi has eight goals so far, the most of anyone in the competition, and Argentina are unbeaten in eleven straight World Cup matches since their opening defeat to Saudi Arabia at Qatar 2022, scoring at least twice in every one of them. Two comebacks in two knockout games have shown a side that doesn't always play well but refuses to stop, with Emiliano Martinez the calm presence behind it all.

Switzerland — the Nati

The predicted XI has Gregor Kobel in goal behind a back four of Ricardo Rodriguez, Manuel Akanji, Nico Elvedi and Denis Zakaria, with Ruben Vargas, Granit Xhaka and Remo Freuler across midfield, and Dan Ndoye, Breel Embolo and Fabian Rieder across the front in a 4-3-3. Coach Murat Yakin has given up on getting Johan Manzambi fit in time, so Rieder comes in on the right of the front three, with Vargas dropping back into the midfield three alongside Xhaka and Freuler rather than staying advanced. Zakaria continues at right-back ahead of Luca Jaquez, though Yakin isn't fully sold on the conversion and it's worth double-checking that spot closer to kickoff. Ardon Jashari has lost his place entirely after a poor showing against Colombia that saw him hauled off at half-time, while Michel Aebischer is also out of favour and carrying a minor injury.

Kobel was the reason Switzerland got here at all, saving Cucho Hernandez's penalty in the shootout before Vargas won it, and he's arguably the tournament's outstanding goalkeeper alongside his opposite number on Sunday. Switzerland were excellent defensively against Colombia but offered almost nothing going forward, especially after Embolo was withdrawn, and with their most creative outlet in Manzambi unavailable, that attacking toothlessness looks like the bigger concern against opposition this much sharper.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Lionel Messi vs Granit Xhaka. Xhaka's job is denying Messi the room to turn and face goal in central areas, the way Switzerland managed for long stretches against a similarly patient Colombia side. Messi with his back to goal against a well-set block is dangerous but containable; Messi facing forward in transition is a different problem entirely, and how well Xhaka reads that moment could decide the game.

Prediction

The Opta supercomputer gives Argentina a 57.1% chance of winning in 90 minutes, comfortably the largest single outcome, with a draw on 24.2% and Switzerland winning outright just 18.7% of the time. Switzerland's defensive record this tournament is genuinely elite, but their attack now goes into a quarterfinal with a converted right-back still bedding in, a discarded double pivot option in Jashari, and Manzambi, their most inventive player, missing entirely. Messi remains the surest source of a moment of quality on the pitch, and with Argentina's pattern of finding a way even when the football isn't pretty, a single goal from him feels like the most likely route through a tight, low-scoring game.

Argentina 1-0 Switzerland — Messi

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Norway

vs

England

Quarterfinal · Saturday 11 July, 22:00 BST · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens

Norway are in uncharted territory, a first World Cup quarterfinal in their history arriving off the back of a stunning 2-1 upset of Brazil. England got here the hard way too, riding out a 3-2 thriller in Mexico City with ten men for the closing stages. Opta rates this the most evenly matched tie of the round, and the head-to-head backs that up: Norway have won just two of twelve meetings with England and haven't scored against them in four straight. The winner meets Argentina or Switzerland in the semifinal.

Norway — the Boys in Red

The predicted XI has Orjan Haskjold Nyland in goal behind a back four of David Moller Wolfe, Torbjorn Heggem, Kristoffer Vassbakk Ajer and Julian Ryerson, with Martin Odegaard, Sander Berge and Patrick Berg across midfield, and Andreas Schjelderup, Erling Haaland and Alexander Sorloth across the front in a 4-3-3. Other outlets have Solbakken going a different way entirely, dropping Sorloth for Oscar Bobb and shifting to a 4-2-3-1 with Odegaard pushed higher as one of three attacking midfielders and Berge-Berg holding as a double pivot, so the exact shape is worth double-checking closer to kickoff. Wolfe was forced off late against Brazil but has trained fully since and isn't a fitness concern, while Marcus Holmgren Pedersen missed out with illness and should be available again from the bench.

Haaland is the story regardless of the exact shape around him. He has scored in 14 straight competitive games for Norway, 27 goals in that run, and has found the net in all four of his World Cup appearances so far at a 39% shot-conversion rate, the best of anyone with 15-plus attempts at the tournament since Gary Lineker in 1986. Norway have scored 12 and conceded nine across their five games, a swashbuckling record matched at this stage only by West Germany's eventual 1954 champions.

England — the Three Lions

The predicted XI keeps Jordan Pickford in goal behind a back four of Nico O'Reilly, Marc Guehi, Ezri Konsa and Djed Spence, with Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson screening in front of them, and Anthony Gordon, Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka in behind Harry Kane in a 4-2-3-1. Guehi and Spence both carry a bit of fitness uncertainty into this one, a hamstring strain for Guehi and a recent return to full training for Spence, while Rice has been managing a minor illness. All three are expected to be fine for kickoff. Jarell Quansah misses out through suspension after his red card against Mexico, and Jordan Henderson is out for the rest of the tournament after an odd fall into the advertising boards during the celebrations.

Kane sits one goal behind Haaland in the Golden Boot race on six, matching his own tally from 2018 and Gary Lineker's 1986 haul, and he has scored in 11 of his last 12 knockout games at major tournaments. Bellingham has four goals of his own after a brace against Mexico, already the most an England midfielder has managed at a single World Cup. England's h2h record over Norway is strong, but their form against European opposition at this stage isn't: they've been knocked out by a European side in five of their last six World Cup knockout games, including each of the last three, last time a 2-1 defeat to France in the 2022 quarterfinal.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Erling Haaland vs Jordan Pickford. This is personal history as much as tactics: Haaland has scored more Premier League goals against Pickford than against every goalkeeper he's faced except three, converting seven of the ten shots on target he's put on Pickford's goal down the years. Pickford will know exactly what's coming and still might not be able to stop it.

Prediction

The Opta supercomputer gives England a 50.4% chance of winning in 90 minutes, comfortably the largest single outcome, with Norway next most likely at 25.1% and a draw on 24.6%, figures Opta itself flags as the closest of any quarterfinal this round. Both sides have leaked goals all tournament while scoring freely at the other end, and with Haaland and Kane both in career-defining form, a tight, low-margin game feels less likely than an open one. Haaland's history against Pickford specifically points to another goal or two for him, but Kane, Bellingham and England's greater squad depth in the final third should just about see them through.

Norway 2-3 England — Haaland (2); Kane, Bellingham, Saka

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Spain

vs

Belgium

Quarterfinal · Friday 10 July, 20:00 BST · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles

Spain needed a stoppage-time substitute goal to get past Portugal, Mikel Merino pouncing in the first minute of added time to end Cristiano Ronaldo's World Cup for good. Belgium needed nothing of the sort, tearing the USA apart 4-1 in Seattle just hours after the Folarin Balogun saga had dominated the build-up. Both sides arrive in Los Angeles unbeaten across a combined eleven matches, and the winner meets France or Morocco in the semifinal.

Spain — La Roja

The predicted XI has Unai Simon in goal behind a back four of Marc Cucurella, Aymeric Laporte, Pau Cubarsi and Pedro Porro, with Pedri, Rodri and Dani Olmo across midfield, and Alex Baena, Mikel Oyarzabal and Lamine Yamal across the front in a 4-3-3. It's the same shape and largely the same names that got past Portugal, with Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino both still short of full fitness and Baena continuing to deputise on the left in Williams' absence.

Spain still haven't conceded at this World Cup: six clean sheets in six games, more than 10 hours without letting anyone score, and Rodri screening in front of the back four has been the biggest reason why. Oyarzabal has racked up 23 goal involvements across his last 17 caps, while Yamal is still waiting for the signature moment his tournament hasn't quite produced yet. Spain have also won nine of their last eleven meetings with Belgium.

Belgium — the Red Devils

The predicted XI keeps Thibaut Courtois in goal behind an unchanged back four of Maxim De Cuyper, Brandon Mechele, Nathan Ngoy and Timothy Castagne, with Nicolas Raskin and Youri Tielemans forming the double pivot, Leandro Trossard, Hans Vanaken and Dodi Lukebakio in behind Charles De Ketelaere in a 4-2-3-1. That leaves out Kevin De Bruyne entirely, even though he was rested rather than dropped against the USA and both RotoWire and SportsMole expect him to reclaim a starting spot for a game this size, so that's worth double-checking closer to kickoff. Amadou Onana's tournament ended with a torn ACL against the USA, which is the reason the midfield picture is unsettled in the first place, and Zeno Debast remains short of full fitness among the bench options.

De Ketelaere scored twice in the demolition of the USA with Vanaken adding a third, and Romelu Lukaku has now scored in three straight games as a substitute. That's a genuine weapon for coach Rudi Garcia to turn to if the game is still there to be won late. Belgium are unbeaten in 18 matches and have scored more than 2.5 goals per game at this World Cup, a run few predicted after their group-stage exit four years ago.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Rodri vs Youri Tielemans. Rodri has been quietly excellent all tournament and reportedly produced his best individual display yet against Portugal, dictating tempo and screening the back four in the same breath. Tielemans is the man Belgium will lean on to match him in that same zone, and whoever wins the battle for the middle of the pitch should decide how much either forward line actually gets to see of the opposition goal.

Prediction

The Opta supercomputer gives Spain a 59.3% chance of winning in 90 minutes, comfortably the largest single outcome, with a draw on 22.4% and Belgium winning outright just 18.3% of the time. Spain's own attack has been pragmatic rather than prolific all tournament, a single stoppage-time goal enough to see off Portugal, but their defense is the headline here: six clean sheets in six games is a different proposition to anything Belgium have faced, and Belgium's form before the USA rout was patchy enough that one big performance shouldn't be mistaken for a settled trend. De Ketelaere's form is the clearest route to a Belgium goal, and Yamal feels overdue the moment his tournament hasn't quite produced yet at the other end.

Spain 2-1 Belgium — Oyarzabal, Yamal; De Ketelaere

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France

vs

Morocco

Quarterfinal · Thursday 9 July, 21:00 BST · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough

This is a rematch of the 2022 semifinal, when France beat Morocco 2-0 in Qatar to end the Atlas Lions' famous run and reach the final. Four years on, Morocco are back in the last eight having gone unbeaten through their opening five games at a World Cup for the second tournament running, a feat no other African nation has managed even once. France, chasing a third straight semifinal, have needed late moments to get here themselves, needing a 70th-minute Kylian Mbappe penalty to see off a stubborn Paraguay. The winner meets Spain or Belgium in the last four.

France — Les Bleus

The predicted XI has Mike Maignan in goal behind a back four of Lucas Digne, William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano and Jules Kounde, with Adrien Rabiot, Michael Olise and Manu Kone across midfield, and Bradley Barcola, Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele across the front in a 4-3-3. Aurelien Tchouameni is the biggest selection story here: he wasn't expected to train again until Wednesday, and this lineup has him missing out again after sitting out the Paraguay game, so it's worth double-checking his status closer to kickoff in case he forces his way back in. Marcus Thuram is back in the squad after his own injury, and Digne looks to have won the left-back battle with Theo Hernandez, while Barcola keeps his place ahead of Desire Doue for now.

Mbappe leads from the front on seven goals this tournament, level with Erling Haaland and one behind Messi's eight in a tight Golden Boot race. He has also created 12 chances and made two assists, while Olise has been the tournament's standout creator, becoming the first player since Brazil's Zico in 1978 to complete 10 or more dribbles, create 10 or more chances in open play, and make 10 or more through balls in his debut World Cup. France have won 11 of their last 12 competitive matches, seven in a row, and have not strung together eight straight since 2002 to 2004.

Morocco — the Atlas Lions

The predicted XI keeps faith with the shape that saw off Canada: Yassine Bounou in goal, a back four of Noussair Mazraoui, Chadi Riad, Issa Diop and Achraf Hakimi, a double pivot of Ayoub Bouaddi and Neil El Aynaoui, and Bilal El Khannouss, Azzedine Ounahi and Brahim Diaz in behind Soufiane Rahimi in a 4-2-3-1. Ismael Saibari is the notable absence up front after his hamstring injury against Canada, with Rahimi, who scored off the bench in that game, stepping in. Riad is passed fit enough to continue after missing the last round with a knee issue, though he's the one place in this XI still worth a final check.

Ounahi is the player in form, his second-half brace having turned the Canada tie in Morocco's favour, and his movement between the lines gives coach Mohamed Ouahbi a genuine creative and goalscoring threat. Diaz already holds the all-time African record for World Cup assists and has been directly involved in more goals than any other Moroccan player since last year's Africa Cup of Nations, while Hakimi has created more chances than any other defender across the last two World Cups. Morocco arrive on a 34-match unbeaten run stretching back to January's Africa Cup of Nations final.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Azzedine Ounahi vs Manu Kone. Ounahi does his best work receiving between the lines and turning before a midfielder can close him down, and that is exactly the kind of shadow striker that Tchouameni would normally be trusted to eliminate. With him missing, it falls to Kone to deny Ounahi the space he found repeatedly against Canada and the Netherlands, and how well he does that could decide how much Morocco threaten in behind France's high line.

Prediction

The Opta supercomputer gives France a 61.7% chance of winning in 90 minutes, comfortably the largest single outcome, with a draw on 22.1% and Morocco winning outright just 16.2% of the time. Morocco's defensive record this tournament, including seeing off the Netherlands without conceding in normal time, suggests this won't be the free-scoring afternoon France's squad depth might promise elsewhere, and Les Bleus have needed a late moment to break down a well-organised defence in each of their last two knockout games. Mbappe feels overdue the goal that draws him level with Messi at the top of the Golden Boot race, and a single moment of quality from him looks the most likely way this stays goalless for long spells before France edge it.

France 1-0 Morocco — Mbappe

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Switzerland

vs

Colombia

Round of 16 · Tuesday 7 July, 21:00 BST · BC Place, Vancouver

The last tie of the round is also one of the hardest to call. Switzerland beat Algeria 2-0 without much fuss to reach the last 16, while Colombia edged Ghana 1-0 through Jhon Arias. Neither side has been spectacular so far, but both are one win away from uncharted territory: Switzerland have not reached a World Cup quarterfinal since 1954, and Colombia have only got there once, in 2014. The winner meets Argentina or Egypt in Kansas City.

Switzerland — the Nati

The predicted XI has Gregor Kobel in goal behind a back four of Ricardo Rodriguez, Manuel Akanji, Nico Elvedi and Denis Zakaria, with Ruben Vargas, Granit Xhaka and Remo Freuler across midfield, and Dan Ndoye, Breel Embolo and Johan Manzambi across the front in a 4-3-3. Zakaria is the one to watch: he's been converted from central midfield to right-back over the last couple of weeks, and only just gets the nod there ahead of the returning Silvan Widmer and Luca Jaquez, who has also been tried in the role. Michel Aebischer has lost his place entirely, with Vargas and Manzambi both in form enough to keep him on the bench.

Manzambi has been the story of Switzerland's tournament, arriving from relative obscurity to become Murat Yakin's most reliable source of creativity, while Xhaka continues to set the tone from deep. Switzerland have won three straight since an opening draw with Qatar and have not conceded more than once in any game this summer.

Colombia — Los Cafeteros

James Rodriguez remains the biggest name in the squad even after a quiet tournament, and the predicted lineup has him continuing in a 4-4-2 alongside Camilo Vargas in goal, a back four of Johan Mojica, Davinson Sanchez, Jhon Lucumi and Daniel Munoz, and a midfield of Jefferson Lerma, Rodriguez, Gustavo Puerta and Jhon Arias behind Luis Diaz and Luis Suarez up front.

Rodriguez was hooked at half-time against Ghana for tactical reasons rather than injury, with Richard Rios impressing after coming on, and he still has zero goals and zero assists in four games at what was billed as his farewell tournament. His set-piece delivery keeps him relevant regardless. Suarez steps in for the injured Jhon Cordoba, who is out for the rest of the tournament, having already scored an assist within six minutes of coming off the bench against Ghana. Colombia have kept clean sheets in three straight and have conceded only once all tournament.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Daniel Munoz vs Ruben Vargas. Munoz's overlapping runs from right-back have been Colombia's most consistent source of width all tournament, and he'll come up directly against Vargas, who provides the same threat in the opposite direction for Switzerland. Whichever side wins the battle for that flank should dictate which team does more of the attacking.

Prediction

There's no head-to-head history here and not much separating these two sides on paper. Colombia's route through the bracket gives them a 57.1% chance of advancing to the quarterfinal against Switzerland's 42.9%, largely down to Luis Diaz's ability to create something from nothing against a well-organised Swiss block. Switzerland should make this difficult and might well get a goal of their own through Embolo's aerial threat, but Colombia's extra quality in the final third should just about be enough over 90 minutes.

Switzerland 1-2 Colombia — Embolo; Diaz, Suarez

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Argentina

vs

Egypt

Round of 16 · Tuesday 7 July, 17:00 BST · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Argentina needed extra time and a deflected header from Cristian Romero to see off Cape Verde 3-2 in the last 32, twice surrendering the lead before a 111th-minute own goal finally settled it. Egypt got here the hard way too, needing penalties to beat Australia after a 1-1 draw, and now stand one win away from a first World Cup quarterfinal in their history. Both sides played 120 minutes on Friday, so fatigue is as much a talking point here as anything on the team sheet.

Argentina — La Albiceleste

The predicted XI has Emiliano Martinez in goal behind a back four of Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martinez and Nicolas Tagliafico, with Leandro Paredes, Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister and Rodrigo De Paul across a flat midfield four, and Lionel Messi partnering Julian Alvarez up front in a 4-4-2. Some reports had tipped Facundo Medina to continue at left-back with Lautaro Martinez or Thiago Almada alongside Messi instead, but Medina picked up cramp late against Cape Verde and Tagliafico looks the safer call, so treat the forward pairing as the one detail still worth confirming closer to kickoff.

Messi is chasing history again. His penalty-box header against Cape Verde took him to seven goals this tournament, making him the first player to reach seven at two separate World Cups, a feat Kylian Mbappe matched a few hours later against Paraguay. One more goal would draw Messi level with Guillermo Stabile's all-time Argentina record of eight in a single edition, and would also make him only the sixth player ever to score in his country's first five games at a World Cup. Argentina have scored at least twice in ten straight World Cup matches and could equal Uruguay's run of eleven in a row, set between 1930 and 1954, if the goals keep coming here.

Egypt — the Pharaohs

The predicted lineup keeps Mostafa Shobeir in goal behind a back four of Karim Hafez, Rami Rabia, Yasser Ibrahim and Mohamed Hany, with Marwan Attia and Hamdy Fathy screening in front of them. Mostafa Ziko, Emam Ashour and Mohamed Salah support Omar Marmoush in a 4-2-3-1. Hafez was withdrawn late against Australia and there had been some question over his fitness, and other outlets had pencilled in a recalled Mohannad Lasheen alongside Marwan Ateya in the double pivot instead, but the version here keeps the same pairing that started the shootout win.

Salah's tournament has been extraordinary given he arrived as a free agent after leaving Liverpool in May. He has created 16 chances so far, the joint-highest tally in the competition, and two more would draw him level with Kevin-Prince Boateng's record for an African player at a single World Cup. He also converted a Panenka in the shootout against Australia. Egypt have now scored and conceded in six straight World Cup matches, level with Ghana's run from 2010 to 2022, and a win here would make them only the fifth African nation ever to reach a World Cup quarterfinal, after Cameroon in 1990, Senegal in 2002, Ghana in 2010 and Morocco, who have already done it twice, including this summer.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush vs Argentina's back four. Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martinez are top-class centre-backs on a normal day, but both had uneasy moments against a Cape Verde side ranked 67th in the world. Salah and Marmoush in transition, with room to run at that same back line, are the sharpest attacking pairing Egypt have ever brought to a World Cup, and the clearest route to an upset.

Prediction

The Opta supercomputer gives Argentina a 69.1% chance of winning in 90 minutes, with Egypt on 12.3% and a draw, which would mean extra time again, on 18.5%. Argentina's class across the squad should tell in the end, and Messi extending his scoring streak feels overdue given the history on the line. But this Egypt attack is a different proposition to Cape Verde's, and Emiliano Martinez may have to be Argentina's best player again for the second knockout game running to keep it that way.

Argentina 2-0 Egypt — Messi, Alvarez

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USA

vs

Belgium

Round of 16 · Tuesday 7 July, 01:00 BST · Lumen Field, Seattle

The last game of the round takes co-hosts USA into the small hours against a Belgium side that somehow found a way past Senegal last time out. Mauricio Pochettino's team beat Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 to move within one win of a first World Cup quarterfinal since 2002, while Belgium trailed 2-0 with five minutes of normal time left before an extraordinary extra-time turnaround. The winner meets France in the last eight.

USA — the Stars and Stripes

Folarin Balogun looked set to miss this one after his red card against Bosnia, but his suspension has since been overturned on appeal, and the predicted XI has him leading the line after all, though that's worth reconfirming closer to kickoff given how recent the change is. That's a significant update on what most previews were working from earlier in the week, several of which had penciled in Ricardo Pepi as a like-for-like replacement. The rest of the side is tipped to line up as Matt Freese in goal behind a back three of Tim Ream, Chris Richards and Alex Freeman, with Antonee Robinson and Sergino Dest as wing-backs either side of Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams, and Christian Pulisic and Malik Tillman just behind Balogun in a 3-4-2-1.

Balogun has scored three of USA's goals so far this tournament from just 11 shots, a conversion rate of 27.3% that dwarfs his teammates' combined return of five goals from 41 attempts. Only Bert Patenaude and Landon Donovan have scored more for the USA at a single World Cup. Getting him back changes the complexion of this game considerably. Mark McKenzie (foot) and Cristian Roldan (strain) are both still being assessed after knocks picked up against Bosnia, though neither was in line to start here regardless.

Belgium — the Red Devils

Belgium look set to make two changes from the side that laboured past Senegal. The predicted XI has Thibaut Courtois in goal behind a back four of Maxim De Cuyper, Brandon Mechele, Arthur Theate and Timothy Castagne, with Nicolas Raskin and Youri Tielemans in a double pivot. Jeremy Doku, Kevin De Bruyne and Leandro Trossard support Romelu Lukaku up top in a 4-2-3-1.

Raskin comes in after a strong impact off the bench, and Lukaku starts up top for the first time this tournament having managed 75 minutes last time out, with Charles De Ketelaere and Hans Vanaken making way. Zeno Debast remains a doubt after training with the group since last Sunday but is not expected to start. The turnaround against Senegal is still the story of Belgium's tournament: 2-0 down with five minutes of normal time left, Lukaku pulled one back before Tielemans levelled 159 seconds later, then converted a 120th-minute penalty, the latest goal on record at a World Cup. Trossard has created 16 chances from open play this tournament, the second-most at any World Cup in the last three editions behind only Lionel Messi's 17 in 2022.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Kevin De Bruyne vs Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams. De Bruyne does his best work with a couple of seconds to turn between the lines, and McKennie and Adams are the pair tasked with denying him that room in front of the back three. How often USA force him sideways rather than forward will go a long way to deciding whether Belgium's attack functions or stalls.

Prediction

This is the tightest match of the round on paper. The Opta supercomputer gives USA a narrow edge at 37.2% to win in normal time, just ahead of Belgium's 36.5%, with a draw and extra time on 26.3%. Balogun's return looks like the difference. He has scored three goals from just 11 shots this tournament, a far sharper conversion rate than anyone else involved in this game, and home advantage on top of that should be enough to nose USA in front. Lukaku's first start of the tournament ought to give Belgium something to work with too, and it wouldn't be a shock if this one needed extra time to actually separate them.

USA 2-1 Belgium — Balogun (2); Lukaku

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Portugal

vs

Spain

Round of 16 · Monday 6 July, 20:00 BST · AT&T Stadium, Arlington

Round of 16 saves its standout tie for last this week. Portugal and Spain meet in Arlington with a quarterfinal against the winner of USA vs Belgium in Los Angeles on the line. Portugal needed a stoppage-time Goncalo Ramos header and a VAR intervention to see off Croatia, while Spain cruised past Austria without much fuss. The Opta supercomputer makes Spain clear favourites, though this fixture has rarely gone to script down the years.

Portugal — A Selecao

The predicted XI has Diogo Costa in goal behind a back four of Joao Cancelo, Renato Veiga, Ruben Dias and Nuno Mendes, with Joao Neves and Vitinha screening in a double pivot. Bruno Fernandes is pencilled in at the number 10 with Pedro Neto and Rafael Leao either side, and Cristiano Ronaldo leading the line in a 4-2-3-1.

Vitinha and Fernandes both came off around the hour mark against Croatia, which is worth watching before kickoff, and though both are pencilled in to start again here, that's the one part of this XI worth double-checking closer to kickoff. The bigger story is what happens around Ronaldo. He scored his first-ever World Cup knockout goal from the penalty spot against Croatia, was substituted at 81 minutes, and watched Ramos win it from the bench in the fourth minute of stoppage time after Josko Gvardiol's equaliser was ruled out on VAR review. Ronaldo has scored four goals against Spain across his career, the joint-most of any player against them alongside Eduardo Vargas, and Roberto Martinez will need every bit of that record here.

Spain — La Roja

The predicted XI keeps faith with the group that beat Austria: Unai Simon in goal, a back four of Marc Cucurella, Pau Cubarsi, Aymeric Laporte and Pedro Porro, a midfield three of Pedri, Rodri and Dani Olmo, and Alex Baena, Mikel Oyarzabal and Lamine Yamal across the front in a 4-3-3.

Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino remain out through injury, and Williams in particular looks more likely to be an impact substitute than an immediate starter even with the extra days of recovery. Everything else points to consistency. Spain have not conceded in four matches, only the second European side to open a World Cup with four straight clean sheets after Switzerland in 2006, and their average expected goals difference of plus 1.80 per game is the best by any European nation to reach the knockouts since France's plus 1.82 in 1998. Oyarzabal's double against Austria took him to four goals for the tournament, the most by a Spain player in a single edition since David Villa scored five in the side that won it all in 2010.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Rodri vs Bruno Fernandes. Fernandes is Portugal's most dangerous outlet when he finds space between Spain's lines, and Rodri is widely regarded as the best defensive midfielder in the world at shutting exactly that kind of space down. Whoever wins that individual battle probably decides which side dictates the tempo for most of the 90 minutes.

Prediction

Spain's defensive record and momentum make them the favourites, and the Opta supercomputer agrees, giving them a 49.2% chance of winning in normal time against Portugal's 25.6%, with a draw on 25.2%. Oyarzabal is the man in the sort of form where a second goal wouldn't surprise anyone, already on four for the tournament and up against a Portugal defence that has looked shaky all competition. Ronaldo's record against this specific opponent, four goals and counting, suggests Spain's clean sheet run ends here even if the result doesn't. Their control in midfield should just about be enough to get them over the line.

Portugal 1-3 Spain — Ronaldo; Oyarzabal (2), Yamal

⚽ Don't forget to submit your prediction at bantamtalk.com/predictionleague before kickoff!

Mexico

vs

England

Round of 16 · Monday 6 July, 01:00 BST · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

The second last-16 tie of the night takes England into the furnace of the Estadio Azteca in the small hours of Monday morning UK time, 2,200 metres above sea level and a stadium where co-host Mexico have never lost a World Cup match. Thomas Tuchel's side scraped past DR Congo through two Harry Kane goals in the last round; Javier Aguirre's side have not even conceded yet this summer. Whoever wins this one meets Brazil or Norway in Miami next Saturday.

Mexico — El Tri

Aguirre has no fitness worries to speak of, so the only real selection question is at centre back. The predicted XI has Raul Rangel in goal, a back four of Jesus Gallardo, Johan Vasquez, Cesar Montes and Jorge Sanchez, a midfield three of Gilberto Mora, Erik Lira and Luis Romo, and Roberto Alvarado, Raul Jimenez and Julian Quinones across the front. Some reports have Israel Reyes keeping his place at right back ahead of Sanchez instead, so it's worth a final check before kickoff.

Mexico have been close to untouchable defensively. They have not conceded in four matches, only the second side since 1994 to open a World Cup with four straight clean sheets, after Switzerland in 2006, and one more shutout here would draw them level with Italy's run of five to start the 1990 tournament. Quinones has been the story of their attack, involved in four goals so far, three scored and one assisted, the joint-most by a Mexican player in a single World Cup since 1966, level with Luis Hernandez's mark from 1998. One more goal would draw him level with Hernandez's separate record for goals scored in a single edition by a Mexican player, currently set at four. Alvarado's three assists are already a record for a Mexican player in a single edition, and he also leads the squad for chances created, possession won and tackles made.

The numbers around home advantage are just as striking. Mexico have never lost a World Cup match at the Azteca in ten attempts, eight wins and two draws, and their unbeaten run in competitive fixtures at the stadium now stands at 22 games. This will be the eleventh time Mexico have played a World Cup match there, more than any team has played at a single venue in the competition's history.

England — the Three Lions

Right back remains Tuchel's headache. Reece James and Jarell Quansah are both still crocked, and with Tino Livramento already ruled out before a ball was kicked, Djed Spence filled in against DR Congo and should continue there again. The predicted XI has Jordan Pickford in goal, Spence, Marc Guehi, Ezri Konsa and Nico O'Reilly across the back, Elliot Anderson and Declan Rice screening in midfield, and Anthony Gordon, Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka in behind Kane. Rice has been playing through nerve pain rather than a fresh injury and looks fine to start, while some outlets still have Marcus Rashford pencilled in on the left instead of Gordon, who made a real impact off the bench against DR Congo.

Kane is the headline act regardless of the uncertainty behind him. His second goal against DR Congo, a header, was his fourth headed goal at the World Cup in his career, three of them coming at this tournament alone; only Miroslav Klose and Gerd Muller have scored more headers at the competition since 1966. He has now scored 72 goals in 62 appearances for club and country since last August, more than anyone else at this World Cup, from an underlying total of just 50.2 expected goals. England are chasing a third straight quarterfinal appearance, something they last managed across three tournaments running from 1962 to 1970.

The altitude is the bigger worry, though. Tuchel has already called it a "huge disadvantage" for a squad with only three days to prepare, and the numbers back him up: the Azteca produced the lowest combined distance covered, fewest high-speed runs and fewest sprints of any World Cup 2026 venue across the group stage. England have had more of the ball than most teams this tournament, 63.8% possession on average against Mexico's 48.4%, and holding onto it will matter more than usual if Tuchel wants to limit how much chasing his players have to do in the thin air.

Predicted Lineups

Key Battle

Julian Quinones vs Djed Spence. Quinones has been the most direct and dangerous wide forward of Mexico's tournament, and Spence is the least experienced defensive option Tuchel has at right back. If Mexico are going to create the transition moments their whole system is built around, that channel down England's right is the most likely place for it to happen.

Prediction

The Opta supercomputer has this as close to a coin flip as any last-16 tie so far: England 40.6% to win in normal time, Mexico 31.5%, with 27.9% going to a draw, and that draw looks like the single most likely outcome across 90 minutes. Kane's underlying numbers suggest he is overdue at least one more moment even in unfamiliar air, but Mexico's home record and their press should be good for a goal of their own too. Bantam's scoring is based on the 90-minute result, so back this one to still be level when the whistle goes, with the tie needing extra time, and possibly penalties, to actually settle it.

Mexico 1-1 England — Quinones; Kane

⚽ Don't forget to submit your prediction at bantamtalk.com/predictionleague before kickoff!