Portugal
Spain
Round of 16 · Monday 6 July, 20:00 BST · AT&T Stadium, Arlington
Round of 16 saves its standout tie for last this week. Portugal and Spain meet in Arlington with a quarterfinal against the winner of USA vs Belgium in Los Angeles on the line. Portugal needed a stoppage-time Goncalo Ramos header and a VAR intervention to see off Croatia, while Spain cruised past Austria without much fuss. The Opta supercomputer makes Spain clear favourites, though this fixture has rarely gone to script down the years.
Portugal — A Selecao
The predicted XI has Diogo Costa in goal behind a back four of Joao Cancelo, Renato Veiga, Ruben Dias and Nuno Mendes, with Joao Neves and Vitinha screening in a double pivot. Bruno Fernandes is pencilled in at the number 10 with Pedro Neto and Rafael Leao either side, and Cristiano Ronaldo leading the line in a 4-2-3-1.
Vitinha and Fernandes both came off around the hour mark against Croatia, which is worth watching before kickoff, and though both are pencilled in to start again here, that's the one part of this XI worth double-checking closer to kickoff. The bigger story is what happens around Ronaldo. He scored his first-ever World Cup knockout goal from the penalty spot against Croatia, was substituted at 81 minutes, and watched Ramos win it from the bench in the fourth minute of stoppage time after Josko Gvardiol's equaliser was ruled out on VAR review. Ronaldo has scored four goals against Spain across his career, the joint-most of any player against them alongside Eduardo Vargas, and Roberto Martinez will need every bit of that record here.
Spain — La Roja
The predicted XI keeps faith with the group that beat Austria: Unai Simon in goal, a back four of Marc Cucurella, Pau Cubarsi, Aymeric Laporte and Pedro Porro, a midfield three of Pedri, Rodri and Dani Olmo, and Alex Baena, Mikel Oyarzabal and Lamine Yamal across the front in a 4-3-3.
Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino remain out through injury, and Williams in particular looks more likely to be an impact substitute than an immediate starter even with the extra days of recovery. Everything else points to consistency. Spain have not conceded in four matches, only the second European side to open a World Cup with four straight clean sheets after Switzerland in 2006, and their average expected goals difference of plus 1.80 per game is the best by any European nation to reach the knockouts since France's plus 1.82 in 1998. Oyarzabal's double against Austria took him to four goals for the tournament, the most by a Spain player in a single edition since David Villa scored five in the side that won it all in 2010.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Rodri vs Bruno Fernandes. Fernandes is Portugal's most dangerous outlet when he finds space between Spain's lines, and Rodri is widely regarded as the best defensive midfielder in the world at shutting exactly that kind of space down. Whoever wins that individual battle probably decides which side dictates the tempo for most of the 90 minutes.
Prediction
Spain's defensive record and momentum make them the favourites, and the Opta supercomputer agrees, giving them a 49.2% chance of winning in normal time against Portugal's 25.6%, with a draw on 25.2%. Oyarzabal is the man in the sort of form where a second goal wouldn't surprise anyone, already on four for the tournament and up against a Portugal defence that has looked shaky all competition. Ronaldo's record against this specific opponent, four goals and counting, suggests Spain's clean sheet run ends here even if the result doesn't. Their control in midfield should just about be enough to get them over the line.
Portugal 1-3 Spain — Ronaldo; Oyarzabal (2), Yamal
⚽ Don't forget to submit your prediction at bantamtalk.com/predictionleague before kickoff!