Mexico
England
Round of 16 · Monday 6 July, 01:00 BST · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
The second last-16 tie of the night takes England into the furnace of the Estadio Azteca in the small hours of Monday morning UK time, 2,200 metres above sea level and a stadium where co-host Mexico have never lost a World Cup match. Thomas Tuchel's side scraped past DR Congo through two Harry Kane goals in the last round; Javier Aguirre's side have not even conceded yet this summer. Whoever wins this one meets Brazil or Norway in Miami next Saturday.
Mexico — El Tri
Aguirre has no fitness worries to speak of, so the only real selection question is at centre back. The predicted XI has Raul Rangel in goal, a back four of Jesus Gallardo, Johan Vasquez, Cesar Montes and Jorge Sanchez, a midfield three of Gilberto Mora, Erik Lira and Luis Romo, and Roberto Alvarado, Raul Jimenez and Julian Quinones across the front. Some reports have Israel Reyes keeping his place at right back ahead of Sanchez instead, so it's worth a final check before kickoff.
Mexico have been close to untouchable defensively. They have not conceded in four matches, only the second side since 1994 to open a World Cup with four straight clean sheets, after Switzerland in 2006, and one more shutout here would draw them level with Italy's run of five to start the 1990 tournament. Quinones has been the story of their attack, involved in four goals so far, three scored and one assisted, the joint-most by a Mexican player in a single World Cup since 1966, level with Luis Hernandez's mark from 1998. One more goal would draw him level with Hernandez's separate record for goals scored in a single edition by a Mexican player, currently set at four. Alvarado's three assists are already a record for a Mexican player in a single edition, and he also leads the squad for chances created, possession won and tackles made.
The numbers around home advantage are just as striking. Mexico have never lost a World Cup match at the Azteca in ten attempts, eight wins and two draws, and their unbeaten run in competitive fixtures at the stadium now stands at 22 games. This will be the eleventh time Mexico have played a World Cup match there, more than any team has played at a single venue in the competition's history.
England — the Three Lions
Right back remains Tuchel's headache. Reece James and Jarell Quansah are both still crocked, and with Tino Livramento already ruled out before a ball was kicked, Djed Spence filled in against DR Congo and should continue there again. The predicted XI has Jordan Pickford in goal, Spence, Marc Guehi, Ezri Konsa and Nico O'Reilly across the back, Elliot Anderson and Declan Rice screening in midfield, and Anthony Gordon, Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka in behind Kane. Rice has been playing through nerve pain rather than a fresh injury and looks fine to start, while some outlets still have Marcus Rashford pencilled in on the left instead of Gordon, who made a real impact off the bench against DR Congo.
Kane is the headline act regardless of the uncertainty behind him. His second goal against DR Congo, a header, was his fourth headed goal at the World Cup in his career, three of them coming at this tournament alone; only Miroslav Klose and Gerd Muller have scored more headers at the competition since 1966. He has now scored 72 goals in 62 appearances for club and country since last August, more than anyone else at this World Cup, from an underlying total of just 50.2 expected goals. England are chasing a third straight quarterfinal appearance, something they last managed across three tournaments running from 1962 to 1970.
The altitude is the bigger worry, though. Tuchel has already called it a "huge disadvantage" for a squad with only three days to prepare, and the numbers back him up: the Azteca produced the lowest combined distance covered, fewest high-speed runs and fewest sprints of any World Cup 2026 venue across the group stage. England have had more of the ball than most teams this tournament, 63.8% possession on average against Mexico's 48.4%, and holding onto it will matter more than usual if Tuchel wants to limit how much chasing his players have to do in the thin air.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Julian Quinones vs Djed Spence. Quinones has been the most direct and dangerous wide forward of Mexico's tournament, and Spence is the least experienced defensive option Tuchel has at right back. If Mexico are going to create the transition moments their whole system is built around, that channel down England's right is the most likely place for it to happen.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has this as close to a coin flip as any last-16 tie so far: England 40.6% to win in normal time, Mexico 31.5%, with 27.9% going to a draw, and that draw looks like the single most likely outcome across 90 minutes. Kane's underlying numbers suggest he is overdue at least one more moment even in unfamiliar air, but Mexico's home record and their press should be good for a goal of their own too. Bantam's scoring is based on the 90-minute result, so back this one to still be level when the whistle goes, with the tie needing extra time, and possibly penalties, to actually settle it.
Mexico 1-1 England — Quinones; Kane
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