Brazil
Norway
Round of 16 · Sunday 5 July, 21:00 BST · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
Round of 16 week continues on Sunday when Brazil and Norway meet at MetLife Stadium for a place in the quarterfinals in Miami. Brazil go in as favourites with the bookies and the Opta supercomputer alike, but Carlo Ancelotti has fresh selection problems after losing two more attackers to injury since the Japan game, and Norway have Erling Haaland, who has barely stopped scoring all summer. Brazil have never actually beaten Norway in four meetings across all competitions, including a 2-1 defeat at the 1998 World Cup, the only previous meeting between these two at the tournament.
Brazil — the Selecao
Ancelotti has needed to rebuild his side for the first time all tournament after fielding an unchanged XI in the Japan win, and the changes here are enforced rather than chosen. The version doing the rounds ahead of kickoff has Alisson in goal behind a back four of Douglas Santos, Gabriel Magalhaes, Marquinhos and Danilo, with Casemiro and Bruno Guimaraes expected to screen in front of them. Gabriel Martinelli looks set to take the central role vacated by the injured Lucas Paqueta, flanked by Vinicius Jr and Rayan, with Matheus Cunha predicted to lead the line in what would be a 4-2-3-1. None of it is official until Ancelotti actually names his side, so treat it as an educated guess rather than confirmed team news.
Paqueta is the big absence. He came off at half time against Japan with a thigh strain and might not be back until the final, if Brazil get there. Raphinha is already ruled out with a hamstring injury, and Casemiro walked off gingerly after the Japan win, though he looks to have shaken that off and should be fine to start. Some reports had tipped Neymar Jr for a recall in the number 10 role given his return to full training, and others floated Endrick coming in with Cunha dropping deeper, but Martinelli looks to be the man Ancelotti trusts there for now.
The numbers back up the eye test on Vinicius Jr. He has been directly involved in five goals so far this tournament and remains Brazil's biggest threat regardless of who lines up around him, while Bruno Guimaraes's assist for Martinelli's late winner against Japan took him to four for the tournament, the most for Brazil in a single World Cup since Pele managed six in 1970. Brazil have won three straight at this World Cup and are chasing a fourth in a row, something they have not managed since an 11-game run between 2002 and 2006. They have also progressed from nine of their ten previous last-16 ties, with the one blot a 1-0 defeat to Argentina back in 1990.
Norway — the Vikings
Norway look likely to make just one change in personnel from the side that beat Ivory Coast in the last round. Julian Ryerson is still short of full fitness after the thigh issue that has kept him out since going off against Senegal, so Marcus Holmgren Pedersen should continue at right back in his absence. The rest of the XI is tipped to stay the same: Orjan Haskjold Nyland in goal, a back four completed by David Moller Wolfe, Torbjorn Heggem and Kristoffer Vassbakk Ajer, a midfield three of Martin Odegaard, Sander Berge and Patrick Berg, and a front three of Antonio Nusa, Haaland and Alexander Sorloth, though Solbakken could always spring a surprise.
Everything still runs through Haaland. He has scored in each of his last 13 competitive internationals, 25 goals in that stretch, and his five goals in North America already make up most of the story of Norway's run to the last 16. Another against Brazil would make him the eighth European player to score in each of his first four World Cup games, and the first to do it since Italy's Christian Vieri in 1998. Odegaard has quietly built a case of his own: his assist for Nusa's opener against Ivory Coast means he has set one up in each of Norway's four games so far, and one more would make him the first player on record to do that across four straight World Cup matches.
The worry for Stale Solbakken is at the other end. Norway have scored and conceded in all four of their games at this tournament already. Doing it again on Sunday would make them only the sixth side in World Cup history to do that through their first five matches of a single edition, joining Brazil in 1938, Sweden in 1950, Germany in 1970, Belgium in 1986 and Sweden in 1994. Against a Brazil side with Vinicius Jr and Cunha in behind, that record needs fixing fast. Even so, this is already uncharted territory for Norway: the 2-1 win over Ivory Coast last time out was their first ever World Cup knockout victory, after defeats in their only two previous knockout games at a major tournament, both against Italy, in 1938 and 1998.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Erling Haaland vs Gabriel Magalhaes and Marquinhos. Norway's plan is to sit in a mid-block, soak up Brazil's possession and spring Haaland into the space in behind once Brazil's back line commits forward. One line of thinking doing the rounds before this one is that Haaland will look to target Marquinhos rather than Gabriel Magalhaes, on the theory that Marquinhos has struggled in the past against bigger, more physical forwards. One mistimed step from either centre-back and Haaland rarely needs a second invitation.
Prediction
Brazil are missing more first-choice quality than at any point so far this tournament, but the gap in overall depth between these squads still looks significant even with Raphinha and Paqueta out. The Opta supercomputer backs that up, giving Brazil a 53.6% chance of winning in normal time against Norway's 22.4%, with the remaining 24.0% going to a draw that would send this to extra time. Vinicius Jr has been directly involved in five goals already this tournament and should find room again here, with enough joy down the left to have a real shot at a brace of his own. Haaland will still get his moment at the other end against a Brazil side that has looked shaky at the back all summer, but Brazil's extra numbers up top should be enough over 90 minutes.
Brazil 3-1 Norway — Vinicius Jr (2), Cunha; Haaland
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