Paraguay
France
Round of 16 · Saturday 4 July, 22:00 BST · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Paraguay knocked out four-time world champions Germany and their reward is the hardest draw left in the bracket. The blueprint was clear: sit deep, soak up pressure, take the one chance that falls your way, and let Orlando Gill do the rest. It worked because Germany found a way to miss chance after chance across 120 minutes. The question is whether Paraguay can hold that line for another 90 against a France side that does not waste the openings Germany did.
Paraguay — La Albirroja
Orlando Gill should start in goal behind a back four of Juan Cáceres, José Canale, Gustavo Gómez and Junior Alonso. Miguel Almirón, Andrés Cubas, Diego Gómez and Matías Galarza look set to make up the midfield four, with Julio Enciso and Gabriel Ávalos up top.
Diego Gómez returns from suspension, which matters a great deal given how important his creativity and range has been when available. Omar Alderete is out for around two weeks and will not feature here. Both Enciso and Ávalos are carrying knocks and listed as questionable, so keep an eye on team news before you submit your prediction. Enciso should be ok to start per current indications, but check for late team news. If he is fit, he is Paraguay's best route to the kind of early goal that unsettled Germany, and he is also the most likely to manufacture something from very limited touches in a game where Paraguay may barely see the ball in the opposition half. Alfaro will ask his side to be more disciplined than they were in moments against Germany, where France's clinical front line would punish the same mistakes far more heavily.
France — Les Bleus
Mike Maignan should start in goal behind a back four of Jules Koundé, William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano and Lucas Digne. Adrien Rabiot and Aurélien Tchouaméni look set to sit as the double pivot, with Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola in the three behind Kylian Mbappé up top.
Digne gets the nod over Théo Hernandez, with the defensive stability he offers the deciding factor. The front four is the same that dismantled Sweden 3-0. Barcola tucks in from the left rather than staying wide, which gives France a fourth body in the pockets between Paraguay's lines and creates a different kind of problem to pace in behind. Désire Doué is probably the first attacking change if the game becomes stubborn and France need a different look. Marcus Thuram has a calf issue but is not in the projected starting XI. The wider France bench, including Bernardo Silva and Gonçalo Ramos, means Deschamps can introduce completely different attacking profiles if the block holds for a long time.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Julio Enciso vs France's double pivot. If Enciso is fit, he is Paraguay's best hope of finding the goal that makes France uncomfortable. Rabiot and Tchouaméni will be set up specifically to deny him time on the ball between the lines. How much space Enciso finds in those moments and whether he can take his chance when it comes may decide whether this is a comfortable France win or a nervous one.
Prediction
These two have history at the World Cup. They first met in 1958, when Paraguay led 3-2 before France ran out 7-3 winners, and they met again in the last 16 in 1998, when France needed a golden goal from Laurent Blanc in the 114th minute to finally get past a stubbornly organised Paraguay side. Both times Paraguay made it harder than it should have been. This time the pattern is probably the same, but France are too clinical to let it stay close indefinitely. Opta gives France around 80% to win. I think Paraguay get a look at goal or two, but France find the net at least twice and close it out comfortably enough.
Paraguay 0–3 France — Mbappé, Dembélé, Olise