Canada
Morocco
Round of 16 · Saturday 4 July, 18:00 BST · NRG Stadium, Houston
Everything that has happened for Canada at this tournament already exceeds what anyone outside this programme thought possible. First-ever World Cup win. First-ever knockout victory. And now a last-16 tie against the side that knocked them out in the group stage four years ago in Qatar. The rematch nobody saw coming. Morocco are favourites and rightly so, but they know exactly how dangerous Canada can be, because they have already seen it.
Canada — Les Rouges
Maxime Crepeau should start in goal behind a back four of Richie Laryea, Derek Cornelius, Luc de Fougerolles and Alistair Johnston. Alphonso Davies, Nathan Saliba, Stephen Eustaquio and Tajon Buchanan look set to make up the midfield four, with Cyle Larin and Jonathan David up top.
Davies should finally get his first start of the tournament here after coming off the bench against South Africa, and his introduction should push Liam Millar out of the side. De Fougerolles played well enough when he came on in the South Africa tie to make a genuine case for starting over Bombito, whose 45 minutes last time out weren't convincing enough to guarantee him the shirt. Tani Oluwaseyi drops to the bench after a difficult outing. Kone is out for the tournament with a broken leg sustained against Qatar, Flores isn't available either with an ACL tear, and with those absences in mind, Eustaquio's goal-scoring impact and Saliba's work-rate in midfield become even more central to how Canada tries to control games. Eustaquio's injury-time winner against South Africa was the moment that defines this run so far.
Morocco — Atlas Lions
Yassine Bounou should start in goal behind a back four of Noussair Mazraoui, Chadi Riad, Issa Diop and Achraf Hakimi. Neil El Aynaoui and Ayoub Bouaddi look set to screen as the double pivot, with Bilal El Khannouss, Azzedine Ounahi and Brahim Díaz in the three behind Ismael Saibari up top.
No injuries flagged, no rotation expected. Regragui should go with the same XI that beat the Netherlands on penalties, and why would he change it? Bounou was the hero of that shootout and Hakimi's attacking threat on the right flank is the best individual weapon Morocco carry going forward. The one thing worth noting about how Morocco set up is how rarely opponents get in behind them. Eustaquio and whoever starts wide for Canada will need to find angles rather than running in behind, because the back four is well-drilled and very hard to get the better of in a footrace. Canada's best route to goal is probably going to be set pieces rather than open play.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Achraf Hakimi vs Canada's left side. Hakimi is Morocco's most dangerous outlet and will attack whatever is on Canada's left repeatedly across 90 minutes. If Davies is at left back, it is the best individual matchup on the pitch. If he is further forward, Laryea drops in and that is a different, tougher task. Whoever manages Hakimi's runs in behind on that side will decide how many of Morocco's counter-attacks turn into something threatening.
Prediction
The last meeting between these two ended 2-1 to Morocco in Qatar, with Ziyech's opener following a goalkeeping error and a second before an own goal made the closing stages uncomfortable. The historical record outside World Cups also leans heavily Morocco's way, including a 4-0 win in 2016. Morocco are rated around 52% to win inside 90 minutes against Canada's 21%, with the draw at 27%. With Davies back and de Fougerolles in the XI Canada are a better side than the numbers suggest, but Morocco's defensive organisation and knockout experience should see them through.
Canada 1–2 Morocco — David — Saibari, Hakimi