Colombia
Ghana
Round of 32 · Saturday 4 July, 02:30 BST · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Colombia won Group K without losing a game and conceded just once all group stage. Ghana held England to a goalless draw and then showed an entirely different, more fragile side when they chased Croatia. This is a tie that will be decided by which Ghana turns up. Colombia, for their part, have been grinding out results and doing it well.
Colombia — Los Cafeteros
Camilo Vargas should start in goal behind a back four of Johan Mojica, Davinson Sánchez, Jhon Lucumí and Daniel Muñoz. Jefferson Lerma, James Rodríguez, Gustavo Puerta and Jhon Arias look set to make up the midfield four, with Luis Díaz and Luis Suárez paired up top.
No fitness concerns and no suspensions heading in, so this looks like the settled XI Lorenzo has built around. James sits in the middle of that flat four rather than further forward, which gives Colombia a proper creative hub in midfield while Díaz and Suárez carry the goal threat up top. Muñoz's overlapping runs from right-back have been one of their better attacking outlets all tournament, and a note on the single goal conceded: that came from a Vargas error against Uzbekistan, so the defensive record flatters him slightly. Colombia have won four of their last five meetings with Ghana, with one draw, so the head-to-head is comfortably in their favour.
Ghana — Black Stars
Benjamin Asare should start in goal, having taken over from the injured Lawrence Ati-Zigi after the first game and earned the shirt since. A back four of Gideon Mensah, Derrick Luckassen, Jonas Adjetey and Marvin Senaya looks likely, with Adjetey only a 60% probability call given he was substituted at half-time against Croatia. Luckassen keeps his place after stepping in for the injured Jérôme Opoku and scoring. Thomas Partey and Caleb Yirenkyi should sit as the double pivot, with Yirenkyi back in after being rested against Croatia to protect his yellow card count. Abdul Fatawu, Kwasi Sibo and Antoine Semenyo look set to fill the three behind Jordan Ayew up top.
There is real competition on both flanks. Fatawu, Nuamah, Iñaki Williams and Kamaldeen have all rotated in and out, so treat the wide positions as the most uncertain part of this XI. Semenyo has started all three group games but carries a slight ankle concern worth checking before kickoff. Ayew leads the line at 34 and is the captain, though Brandon Thomas-Asante has given the coaches something to think about from the bench. The midfield is the part that worries me for Ghana: Partey and Yirenkyi are good, but two holding midfielders against a Colombia side that can recycle possession for long periods is a tough ask if Sibo can't add enough between the lines to release some of that pressure.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Luis Díaz vs Ghana's right side. Almost everything Colombia create in open play flows through Díaz drifting across from the left. Senaya at right-back has been one of Ghana's more reliable performers, but Díaz at full tilt is a different kind of problem. If he gets in behind early, Colombia could be out of sight before half-time.
Prediction
Colombia are clear favourites and the market prices them accordingly. Ghana's discipline is real but their lack of attacking output in the group stage is a concern, and Colombia do not concede much. I see this going a lot like the DR Congo game: plenty of Colombian possession, a stubborn Ghana block, and one moment from Díaz or a set piece that settles it.
Colombia 1–0 Ghana — Díaz