Argentina
Cape Verde
Round of 32 · Friday 3 July, 23:00 BST · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens
Defending champions versus the smallest nation ever to reach a World Cup knockout stage. Cape Verde held Spain goalless and went through the entire group phase without conceding, a record nobody else at this tournament can match. Argentina won all three games and have Messi scoring at roughly every other opportunity. Cape Verde's story has been one of the great ones of this tournament, but tonight is a different proposition entirely.
Argentina — La Albiceleste
Emiliano Martínez should start in goal behind a back four of Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martínez and Facundo Medina. Rodrigo De Paul, Enzo Fernández, Alexis Mac Allister and Thiago Almada look set to make up the midfield four, with Lautaro Martínez and Lionel Messi up top.
Medina and Lautaro were both working as starters in training, which lines up with this predicted XI. Cristian Romero is carrying a knee concern and is worth monitoring before kickoff, though he remains in the expected lineup for now. Leandro Paredes is fit again and back in the squad picture after missing earlier games. The one alternative worth flagging up front is Julián Álvarez, who gives Scaloni a different option to Lautaro if he wants more movement off the second striker. The 4-4-2 setup with Messi as a second forward rather than a floating ten is the shape Scaloni has leaned on when he wants control, and against a side that will sit deep, that control is the whole point.
Cape Verde — Blue Sharks
Vozinha should start in goal behind a back four of Sidny Cabral, Diney, Roberto Lopes and Steven Moreira. Kevin Pina looks set to sit as the lone defensive midfielder, with Willy Semedo, Deroy Duarte, Jamiro Monteiro and Ryan Mendes across the four in front of him and Dailon Livramento as the lone striker.
Telmo Arcanjo has a fitness concern and his involvement is uncertain. The tactical blueprint will not change regardless of personnel: deep block, narrow shape, deny Messi time and space, and trust the counter when they can win the ball. Cape Verde have pulled this off against better opposition than most people expected. The question is whether Argentina's patience and individual quality can eventually unlock the structure that frustrated Spain for an entire game.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Lionel Messi vs Cape Verde's defensive shape. Kevin Pina sits as the lone holding midfielder with four in front of him, so the narrow band of space between the lines is exactly where Messi looks to operate. Pina will have a very busy evening trying to cut off those angles before Messi can turn and face goal.
Prediction
Opta gives Cape Verde just a 13.7% chance of progressing overall, and that feels about right. Cape Verde will make this as hard as they can and will probably stay in it for a long stretch, but Argentina have too much quality for the block to hold across 90 minutes. Once the first goal goes in, the game opens up in ways that suit Argentina far more than the underdog.
Argentina 3–0 Cape Verde — Messi, Lautaro Martínez, Almada