Australia
Egypt
Round of 32 · Friday 3 July, 19:00 BST · AT&T Stadium, Arlington
Two firsts collide at AT&T Stadium tonight. Australia have never won a World Cup knockout game. Egypt are playing in their first-ever knockout tie at the tournament. Whichever of those records ends here, someone is making history. The irony is that both sides would probably have preferred an easier draw, and neither is going to give the other anything easily.
Australia — Socceroos
Patrick Beach should keep his place in goal ahead of the more experienced Mathew Ryan, the younger keeper having held the shirt all tournament. The back three of Alessandro Circati, Harry Souttar and Lucas Herrington looks set to stay intact, with Herrington likely keeping his spot after a solid display against Paraguay. Jordan Bos and Aziz Behich should provide the width at wing-back, with Aiden O'Neill and Paul Okon-Engstler in the midfield pivot and Connor Metcalfe and Nestory Irankunda offering support behind Mohamed Toure up top.
Mathew Leckie and Jacob Italiano are both out for the rest of the tournament, which reshapes things slightly at the edges. Okon-Engstler has edged ahead of Irvine for that central midfield spot based on recent form, and Toure leading the line with Irankunda just behind him gives Australia a physical focal point they can build the counter around. Australia's approach will be the same regardless of the personnel: defend in numbers, frustrate opponents and find Toure or Irankunda on the break. It has worked well enough to get them here.
Egypt — Pharaohs
Mostafa Shobeir should start in goal behind a back four of Mohamed Hany, Hamdy Fathy, Yasser Ibrahim and Ahmed Fatouh. Marwan Attia and Mahmoud Saber look set to sit as the double pivot, with Mostafa Ziko, Mohamed Salah and Emam Ashour in the three behind Omar Marmoush up top.
The whole game shapes around one question: is Salah fit? He is carrying a hamstring concern and listed as questionable, though he is still in the predicted XI. Keep an eye on any late team news before you submit your prediction. If he starts and is anywhere near his best, Egypt have the quality to find a way through Australia's deep block; he already has 67 international goals, and Behich at left wing-back faces a very long evening on the side Salah operates. Without him, or with a Salah running at half speed, Egypt's threat thins out considerably. Marmoush can still cause problems on the counter, but the creative thread through the middle goes with him.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Mohamed Salah vs Australia's defensive block. If Salah is fit and sharp, he dictates this game. Australia's back five is organized and hard to break down, but their collective discipline gets tested by a player who finds the half-yard nobody else spots. The whole Egypt attacking structure runs through him finding those pockets, and if he does, the opener is likely not far behind.
Prediction
Egypt are slight favourites given their attacking quality, and the Opta supercomputer agrees. Australia have been hard to beat all tournament and carry a real counter-attacking threat through Irankunda, but I think Egypt's individual class edges it, most likely in the second half rather than early. Salah's fitness is the single biggest variable here.
Australia 1–2 Egypt — Irankunda — Salah, Marmoush