USA
Belgium
Round of 16 · Tuesday 7 July, 01:00 BST · Lumen Field, Seattle
The last game of the round takes co-hosts USA into the small hours against a Belgium side that somehow found a way past Senegal last time out. Mauricio Pochettino's team beat Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 to move within one win of a first World Cup quarterfinal since 2002, while Belgium trailed 2-0 with five minutes of normal time left before an extraordinary extra-time turnaround. The winner meets France in the last eight.
USA — the Stars and Stripes
Folarin Balogun looked set to miss this one after his red card against Bosnia, but his suspension has since been overturned on appeal, and the predicted XI has him leading the line after all, though that's worth reconfirming closer to kickoff given how recent the change is. That's a significant update on what most previews were working from earlier in the week, several of which had penciled in Ricardo Pepi as a like-for-like replacement. The rest of the side is tipped to line up as Matt Freese in goal behind a back three of Tim Ream, Chris Richards and Alex Freeman, with Antonee Robinson and Sergino Dest as wing-backs either side of Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams, and Christian Pulisic and Malik Tillman just behind Balogun in a 3-4-2-1.
Balogun has scored three of USA's goals so far this tournament from just 11 shots, a conversion rate of 27.3% that dwarfs his teammates' combined return of five goals from 41 attempts. Only Bert Patenaude and Landon Donovan have scored more for the USA at a single World Cup. Getting him back changes the complexion of this game considerably. Mark McKenzie (foot) and Cristian Roldan (strain) are both still being assessed after knocks picked up against Bosnia, though neither was in line to start here regardless.
Belgium — the Red Devils
Belgium look set to make two changes from the side that laboured past Senegal. The predicted XI has Thibaut Courtois in goal behind a back four of Maxim De Cuyper, Brandon Mechele, Arthur Theate and Timothy Castagne, with Nicolas Raskin and Youri Tielemans in a double pivot. Jeremy Doku, Kevin De Bruyne and Leandro Trossard support Romelu Lukaku up top in a 4-2-3-1.
Raskin comes in after a strong impact off the bench, and Lukaku starts up top for the first time this tournament having managed 75 minutes last time out, with Charles De Ketelaere and Hans Vanaken making way. Zeno Debast remains a doubt after training with the group since last Sunday but is not expected to start. The turnaround against Senegal is still the story of Belgium's tournament: 2-0 down with five minutes of normal time left, Lukaku pulled one back before Tielemans levelled 159 seconds later, then converted a 120th-minute penalty, the latest goal on record at a World Cup. Trossard has created 16 chances from open play this tournament, the second-most at any World Cup in the last three editions behind only Lionel Messi's 17 in 2022.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Kevin De Bruyne vs Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams. De Bruyne does his best work with a couple of seconds to turn between the lines, and McKennie and Adams are the pair tasked with denying him that room in front of the back three. How often USA force him sideways rather than forward will go a long way to deciding whether Belgium's attack functions or stalls.
Prediction
This is the tightest match of the round on paper. The Opta supercomputer gives USA a narrow edge at 37.2% to win in normal time, just ahead of Belgium's 36.5%, with a draw and extra time on 26.3%. Balogun's return looks like the difference. He has scored three goals from just 11 shots this tournament, a far sharper conversion rate than anyone else involved in this game, and home advantage on top of that should be enough to nose USA in front. Lukaku's first start of the tournament ought to give Belgium something to work with too, and it wouldn't be a shock if this one needed extra time to actually separate them.
USA 2-1 Belgium — Balogun (2); Lukaku
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