Spain
Belgium
Quarterfinal · Friday 10 July, 20:00 BST · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Spain needed a stoppage-time substitute goal to get past Portugal, Mikel Merino pouncing in the first minute of added time to end Cristiano Ronaldo's World Cup for good. Belgium needed nothing of the sort, tearing the USA apart 4-1 in Seattle just hours after the Folarin Balogun saga had dominated the build-up. Both sides arrive in Los Angeles unbeaten across a combined eleven matches, and the winner meets France or Morocco in the semifinal.
Spain — La Roja
The predicted XI has Unai Simon in goal behind a back four of Marc Cucurella, Aymeric Laporte, Pau Cubarsi and Pedro Porro, with Pedri, Rodri and Dani Olmo across midfield, and Alex Baena, Mikel Oyarzabal and Lamine Yamal across the front in a 4-3-3. It's the same shape and largely the same names that got past Portugal, with Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino both still short of full fitness and Baena continuing to deputise on the left in Williams' absence.
Spain still haven't conceded at this World Cup: six clean sheets in six games, more than 10 hours without letting anyone score, and Rodri screening in front of the back four has been the biggest reason why. Oyarzabal has racked up 23 goal involvements across his last 17 caps, while Yamal is still waiting for the signature moment his tournament hasn't quite produced yet. Spain have also won nine of their last eleven meetings with Belgium.
Belgium — the Red Devils
The predicted XI keeps Thibaut Courtois in goal behind an unchanged back four of Maxim De Cuyper, Brandon Mechele, Nathan Ngoy and Timothy Castagne, with Nicolas Raskin and Youri Tielemans forming the double pivot, Leandro Trossard, Hans Vanaken and Dodi Lukebakio in behind Charles De Ketelaere in a 4-2-3-1. That leaves out Kevin De Bruyne entirely, even though he was rested rather than dropped against the USA and both RotoWire and SportsMole expect him to reclaim a starting spot for a game this size, so that's worth double-checking closer to kickoff. Amadou Onana's tournament ended with a torn ACL against the USA, which is the reason the midfield picture is unsettled in the first place, and Zeno Debast remains short of full fitness among the bench options.
De Ketelaere scored twice in the demolition of the USA with Vanaken adding a third, and Romelu Lukaku has now scored in three straight games as a substitute. That's a genuine weapon for coach Rudi Garcia to turn to if the game is still there to be won late. Belgium are unbeaten in 18 matches and have scored more than 2.5 goals per game at this World Cup, a run few predicted after their group-stage exit four years ago.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Rodri vs Youri Tielemans. Rodri has been quietly excellent all tournament and reportedly produced his best individual display yet against Portugal, dictating tempo and screening the back four in the same breath. Tielemans is the man Belgium will lean on to match him in that same zone, and whoever wins the battle for the middle of the pitch should decide how much either forward line actually gets to see of the opposition goal.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer gives Spain a 59.3% chance of winning in 90 minutes, comfortably the largest single outcome, with a draw on 22.4% and Belgium winning outright just 18.3% of the time. Spain's own attack has been pragmatic rather than prolific all tournament, a single stoppage-time goal enough to see off Portugal, but their defense is the headline here: six clean sheets in six games is a different proposition to anything Belgium have faced, and Belgium's form before the USA rout was patchy enough that one big performance shouldn't be mistaken for a settled trend. De Ketelaere's form is the clearest route to a Belgium goal, and Yamal feels overdue the moment his tournament hasn't quite produced yet at the other end.
Spain 2-1 Belgium — Oyarzabal, Yamal; De Ketelaere
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