France
Morocco
Quarterfinal · Thursday 9 July, 21:00 BST · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
This is a rematch of the 2022 semifinal, when France beat Morocco 2-0 in Qatar to end the Atlas Lions' famous run and reach the final. Four years on, Morocco are back in the last eight having gone unbeaten through their opening five games at a World Cup for the second tournament running, a feat no other African nation has managed even once. France, chasing a third straight semifinal, have needed late moments to get here themselves, needing a 70th-minute Kylian Mbappe penalty to see off a stubborn Paraguay. The winner meets Spain or Belgium in the last four.
France — Les Bleus
The predicted XI has Mike Maignan in goal behind a back four of Lucas Digne, William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano and Jules Kounde, with Adrien Rabiot, Michael Olise and Manu Kone across midfield, and Bradley Barcola, Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele across the front in a 4-3-3. Aurelien Tchouameni is the biggest selection story here: he wasn't expected to train again until Wednesday, and this lineup has him missing out again after sitting out the Paraguay game, so it's worth double-checking his status closer to kickoff in case he forces his way back in. Marcus Thuram is back in the squad after his own injury, and Digne looks to have won the left-back battle with Theo Hernandez, while Barcola keeps his place ahead of Desire Doue for now.
Mbappe leads from the front on seven goals this tournament, level with Erling Haaland and one behind Messi's eight in a tight Golden Boot race. He has also created 12 chances and made two assists, while Olise has been the tournament's standout creator, becoming the first player since Brazil's Zico in 1978 to complete 10 or more dribbles, create 10 or more chances in open play, and make 10 or more through balls in his debut World Cup. France have won 11 of their last 12 competitive matches, seven in a row, and have not strung together eight straight since 2002 to 2004.
Morocco — the Atlas Lions
The predicted XI keeps faith with the shape that saw off Canada: Yassine Bounou in goal, a back four of Noussair Mazraoui, Chadi Riad, Issa Diop and Achraf Hakimi, a double pivot of Ayoub Bouaddi and Neil El Aynaoui, and Bilal El Khannouss, Azzedine Ounahi and Brahim Diaz in behind Soufiane Rahimi in a 4-2-3-1. Ismael Saibari is the notable absence up front after his hamstring injury against Canada, with Rahimi, who scored off the bench in that game, stepping in. Riad is passed fit enough to continue after missing the last round with a knee issue, though he's the one place in this XI still worth a final check.
Ounahi is the player in form, his second-half brace having turned the Canada tie in Morocco's favour, and his movement between the lines gives coach Mohamed Ouahbi a genuine creative and goalscoring threat. Diaz already holds the all-time African record for World Cup assists and has been directly involved in more goals than any other Moroccan player since last year's Africa Cup of Nations, while Hakimi has created more chances than any other defender across the last two World Cups. Morocco arrive on a 34-match unbeaten run stretching back to January's Africa Cup of Nations final.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Azzedine Ounahi vs Manu Kone. Ounahi does his best work receiving between the lines and turning before a midfielder can close him down, and that is exactly the kind of shadow striker that Tchouameni would normally be trusted to eliminate. With him missing, it falls to Kone to deny Ounahi the space he found repeatedly against Canada and the Netherlands, and how well he does that could decide how much Morocco threaten in behind France's high line.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer gives France a 61.7% chance of winning in 90 minutes, comfortably the largest single outcome, with a draw on 22.1% and Morocco winning outright just 16.2% of the time. Morocco's defensive record this tournament, including seeing off the Netherlands without conceding in normal time, suggests this won't be the free-scoring afternoon France's squad depth might promise elsewhere, and Les Bleus have needed a late moment to break down a well-organised defence in each of their last two knockout games. Mbappe feels overdue the goal that draws him level with Messi at the top of the Golden Boot race, and a single moment of quality from him looks the most likely way this stays goalless for long spells before France edge it.
France 1-0 Morocco — Mbappe
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