Switzerland
Colombia
Round of 16 · Tuesday 7 July, 21:00 BST · BC Place, Vancouver
The last tie of the round is also one of the hardest to call. Switzerland beat Algeria 2-0 without much fuss to reach the last 16, while Colombia edged Ghana 1-0 through Jhon Arias. Neither side has been spectacular so far, but both are one win away from uncharted territory: Switzerland have not reached a World Cup quarterfinal since 1954, and Colombia have only got there once, in 2014. The winner meets Argentina or Egypt in Kansas City.
Switzerland — the Nati
The predicted XI has Gregor Kobel in goal behind a back four of Ricardo Rodriguez, Manuel Akanji, Nico Elvedi and Denis Zakaria, with Ruben Vargas, Granit Xhaka and Remo Freuler across midfield, and Dan Ndoye, Breel Embolo and Johan Manzambi across the front in a 4-3-3. Zakaria is the one to watch: he's been converted from central midfield to right-back over the last couple of weeks, and only just gets the nod there ahead of the returning Silvan Widmer and Luca Jaquez, who has also been tried in the role. Michel Aebischer has lost his place entirely, with Vargas and Manzambi both in form enough to keep him on the bench.
Manzambi has been the story of Switzerland's tournament, arriving from relative obscurity to become Murat Yakin's most reliable source of creativity, while Xhaka continues to set the tone from deep. Switzerland have won three straight since an opening draw with Qatar and have not conceded more than once in any game this summer.
Colombia — Los Cafeteros
James Rodriguez remains the biggest name in the squad even after a quiet tournament, and the predicted lineup has him continuing in a 4-4-2 alongside Camilo Vargas in goal, a back four of Johan Mojica, Davinson Sanchez, Jhon Lucumi and Daniel Munoz, and a midfield of Jefferson Lerma, Rodriguez, Gustavo Puerta and Jhon Arias behind Luis Diaz and Luis Suarez up front.
Rodriguez was hooked at half-time against Ghana for tactical reasons rather than injury, with Richard Rios impressing after coming on, and he still has zero goals and zero assists in four games at what was billed as his farewell tournament. His set-piece delivery keeps him relevant regardless. Suarez steps in for the injured Jhon Cordoba, who is out for the rest of the tournament, having already scored an assist within six minutes of coming off the bench against Ghana. Colombia have kept clean sheets in three straight and have conceded only once all tournament.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Daniel Munoz vs Ruben Vargas. Munoz's overlapping runs from right-back have been Colombia's most consistent source of width all tournament, and he'll come up directly against Vargas, who provides the same threat in the opposite direction for Switzerland. Whichever side wins the battle for that flank should dictate which team does more of the attacking.
Prediction
There's no head-to-head history here and not much separating these two sides on paper. Colombia's route through the bracket gives them a 57.1% chance of advancing to the quarterfinal against Switzerland's 42.9%, largely down to Luis Diaz's ability to create something from nothing against a well-organised Swiss block. Switzerland should make this difficult and might well get a goal of their own through Embolo's aerial threat, but Colombia's extra quality in the final third should just about be enough over 90 minutes.
Switzerland 1-2 Colombia — Embolo; Diaz, Suarez
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