Argentina
Switzerland
Quarterfinal · Sunday 12 July, 02:00 BST · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Argentina trailed Egypt 2-0 with eleven minutes left and still won it, Cristian Romero, Messi and Enzo Fernandez scoring three times inside thirteen frantic minutes. Switzerland went the other way entirely, offering Colombia almost nothing in 120 goalless minutes before Gregor Kobel saved a penalty in the shootout and Ruben Vargas converted the winner, sending them into their first World Cup quarterfinal since 1954. Neither side has lost in regulation at this tournament, and one of those streaks ends in Kansas City. The winner meets Norway or England in the semifinal.
Argentina — La Albiceleste
The predicted XI has Emiliano Martinez in goal behind a back four of Nicolas Tagliafico, Lisandro Martinez, Cristian Romero and Nahuel Molina, with Leandro Paredes, Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister and Rodrigo De Paul across a flat midfield four, and Lionel Messi partnering Julian Alvarez up front in a 4-4-2. There's no fresh team news out of the Argentina camp this week, and this is the same shape and personnel that started against Egypt. Some outlets have pencilled in Lautaro Martinez alongside Messi instead of Alvarez, but the version here keeps faith with the pairing that got them through the last round.
Messi has eight goals so far, the most of anyone in the competition, and Argentina are unbeaten in eleven straight World Cup matches since their opening defeat to Saudi Arabia at Qatar 2022, scoring at least twice in every one of them. Two comebacks in two knockout games have shown a side that doesn't always play well but refuses to stop, with Emiliano Martinez the calm presence behind it all.
Switzerland — the Nati
The predicted XI has Gregor Kobel in goal behind a back four of Ricardo Rodriguez, Manuel Akanji, Nico Elvedi and Denis Zakaria, with Ruben Vargas, Granit Xhaka and Remo Freuler across midfield, and Dan Ndoye, Breel Embolo and Fabian Rieder across the front in a 4-3-3. Coach Murat Yakin has given up on getting Johan Manzambi fit in time, so Rieder comes in on the right of the front three, with Vargas dropping back into the midfield three alongside Xhaka and Freuler rather than staying advanced. Zakaria continues at right-back ahead of Luca Jaquez, though Yakin isn't fully sold on the conversion and it's worth double-checking that spot closer to kickoff. Ardon Jashari has lost his place entirely after a poor showing against Colombia that saw him hauled off at half-time, while Michel Aebischer is also out of favour and carrying a minor injury.
Kobel was the reason Switzerland got here at all, saving Cucho Hernandez's penalty in the shootout before Vargas won it, and he's arguably the tournament's outstanding goalkeeper alongside his opposite number on Sunday. Switzerland were excellent defensively against Colombia but offered almost nothing going forward, especially after Embolo was withdrawn, and with their most creative outlet in Manzambi unavailable, that attacking toothlessness looks like the bigger concern against opposition this much sharper.
Predicted Lineups
Key Battle
Lionel Messi vs Granit Xhaka. Xhaka's job is denying Messi the room to turn and face goal in central areas, the way Switzerland managed for long stretches against a similarly patient Colombia side. Messi with his back to goal against a well-set block is dangerous but containable; Messi facing forward in transition is a different problem entirely, and how well Xhaka reads that moment could decide the game.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer gives Argentina a 57.1% chance of winning in 90 minutes, comfortably the largest single outcome, with a draw on 24.2% and Switzerland winning outright just 18.7% of the time. Switzerland's defensive record this tournament is genuinely elite, but their attack now goes into a quarterfinal with a converted right-back still bedding in, a discarded double pivot option in Jashari, and Manzambi, their most inventive player, missing entirely. Messi remains the surest source of a moment of quality on the pitch, and with Argentina's pattern of finding a way even when the football isn't pretty, a single goal from him feels like the most likely route through a tight, low-scoring game.
Argentina 1-0 Switzerland — Messi
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