The Voice - Match preview Carlisle United vs Bradford City Saturday 20th May 2023 @ 3:00pm

League Two Play Off Semi-Final (First Leg)

Saturday 20th May 2023 15:00
Carlisle United (5th) vs Bradford City (6th)
Brunton Park

Most Recent Results:

1: Bradford City 2 – 2 Gillingham
2: Northampton Town 1 – 2 Bradford City
3: Crewe Alexandra 3 – 2 Bradford City
4: Bradford City 1 – 1 Leyton Orient
5: Bradford City 1 – 0 Carlisle United

Form: WDLWD

1: Carlisle United 2 – 2 Stockport County
2: Barrow 0 – 1 Carlisle United
3: Carlisle United 2 – 3 Salford City
4: Sutton United 1 – 1 Carlisle United
5: Bradford City 1 – 0 Carlisle United

Form: LDLWD

Head-to-Head Results:

Head-to-Head Form:

08 Jan 2022: Carlisle United 2 – 0 Bradford City
07 May 2022: Bradford City 2 – 0 Carlisle United
26 Dec 2022: Carlisle United 1 – 0 Bradford City
21 Mar 2023: Bradford City 0 – 0 Carlisle United
14 May 2023: Bradford City 1 – 0 Carlisle United

Head-to-Head Results (All Time): WDLWL

Won: 23
Drawn: 15
Lost: 21

Biggest Margin of Victory:

24 Nov 1951: Bradford City 6 – 1 Carlisle United
07 Apr 1953: Bradford City 7 – 2 Carlisle United



Carlisle United 2022/23:
Paul Simpson's Carlisle narrowly lose at Valley Parade, and are now 3 games without a win

Carlisle United manager Paul Simpson has framed the second leg of the EFL League Two play off semi-finals as 'an opportunity', and 'something to go at'. That's the right way to approach a home tie against opposition that haven't won their since 1985.

Still, Simpson would be lying if he claimed this was the ideal scenario at this stage of the competition. Carlisle United were able to avoid defeat in either of the previous league fixtures this season, but fell behind to a well-worked first half strike from Jamie Walker. Meanwhile, Simpson's centre forwards (both pairs) looked a little off their game at the other end of the pitch – as has been the case more often than not in recent games.

Still, they say 'pressure creates diamonds', and it will be up to any one of Kristian Dennis, Ryan Edmondson, Omari Patrick or Joe Garner to turn the screw on The Bantams by leading from the front.

Simpson will be concerned by the fact that Corey Whelan (2) and Jack Armer (2) shared the highest number of shots for Carlisle United in the first leg – both defenders, neither troubling Harry Lewis in the Bradford City goal. He will be disappointed also that the only statistic Joe Garner in particular took the lead in was the number of fouls committed!

Not exactly a stellar showing from the Carlisle United front men, then, but the best chance of the game did fall to substitute striker Ryan Edmondson, whose poor header met Jack Armer's superb cross, putting it well high and wide of the target.

Still, Carlisle United had the better of the second half, and although the stats were dead even in terms of possession (a perfect 50:50) and shots on/off target (both sides had 10 shots in total, with 2 on target), Carlisle may just be able to convince themselves they came out of the game with momentum on their side.

Whether that's true or not, Carlisle United will need more in the second leg. Paul Simpson may be tempted to shuffle the starting line up, and it would seem a no brainer to start top 20 goal top scorer Kristian Dennis if he's fit. Joe Garner's inclusion in particular was puzzling, the 35 year old January signing from Fleetwood Town having scored just 1 goal since February 4th.

But maybe Simpson had designs on keeping the game tight, and possibly sneaking it at the end – or perhaps he has lost faith in Dennis, another striker off form for stuttering Carlisle.

Either way, there's one objective come Saturday afternoon: a win, by any means necessary, against a side they've had the better of several times in recent years – particularly on home soil!

Bradford City 2022/23:
Bradford City take the narrowest of edges into the second leg of the play off semi-finals

Realistically, most Bradford City fans would have taken a narrow lead to Brunton Park, even knowing their record there has been very poor in recent decades. A draw in Carlisle would be just the ticket, now, and seems very plausible – but they will have to be prepared for a Cumbrian side going hell for leather now, with nothing left to lose.

Goals are the order of the day for Carlisle United. Fortunately, Bradford City have only conceded once against Carlisle this season across all 3 ties. That's a positive, promising statistic, but not one that Bantams fans will be hoping Mark Hughes – and the players in particular – lean on too heavily.

It will be hearts in mouths time every time Carlisle United surge forward, and while Romoney Crichlow and Sam Stubbs looked to be at their best in the home fixture, there's only so much the superb centre backs can do. Harry Lewis must be on his finest form to take care of any ambitious long range strikes, while Brad Halliday and Liam Ridehalgh will be tasked with blocking as many crosses as possible – as it was a cross from out wide from full back Armer that came closest to undoing all of City's good work on Sunday night.

Jamie Walker and Scott Banks were battered and bruised during the encounter, but it was the pair that ultimately made the difference, linking up with Andy Cook to allow Walker to score the only goal of the game with a fine low strike past 6'9 man mountain Tomas Holy. While Andy Cook had another quiet game against his former side (by his standards at least), his ever-present threat will still require careful marshalling from The Cumbrians, and potentially ensuring Carlisle cannot go too gung-ho in search of a leveller.

Indeed the threat of a 30 goal striker is a serious psychological advantage in this tie. A threat from counters, mistakes, corners, and other set pieces, Cook will be eager to break a career-long duck against his former boyhood club, and fire Bradford City to Wembley. One goal, any goal, particularly if scored first, will give Carlisle United a mountain to climb!

With pace on the flanks and such a significant threat up front, Bradford City's front 3 will have a fantastic chance to make themselves heroes. While the likes of Clayton, Smallwood and Gilliead will likely be asked to defend first and foremost, it could also be an opportunity for Gilliead in particular – easily City's most mobile midfielder – to get himself into good positions. As unlikely a goal scorer as he is, his strike against Grimsby Town got the ball rolling last month in a 3-2 win. More of the same please!

Highlights:

Carlisle United 1 – 0 Bradford City



Bradford City 0 – 0 Carlisle United



Bradford City 1 – 0 Carlisle United



Outlook:

Bradford City will take a draw – but an early goal will be an immense prize, and it's perfectly possible that City try to make another quick start, just as they did on Sunday night. Get themselves in front on Saturday, and Carlisle United will need 3 goals to guarantee a spot at Wembley – a big ask, considering they haven't scored 3 or more since late February, when they trounced lowly Crawley Town away. Hardly the same calibre of opposition, and hardly as big of an occasion!

While a two goal advantage wouldn't necessarily mean the tie was over and done with, it would at least give City fans some much-needed breathing space in what could become a very tense and stressful affair. Another potential permutation would be that Carlisle score first, levelling up the tie on aggregate, and likely getting their tails up. That would be a near-nightmare scenario, but one from which the City players would need to show real character – a trait that hasn't always been there in the biggest of games.

That said, there was absolutely no lack of character on Sunday night.

Bradford City were compact in formation, solid in possession (particularly in the first half), and netted with the best move of the game – in a move that was more direct than some home fans will have been used to! Mixing it up like that, and aiming for Andy Cook with longer balls, could be a game changer at Brunton Park. Bradford City must do everything in their power to never let Carlisle United forget how quickly the 1-0 deficit could double, or even triple. While attack will be the order of the day from Paul Simpson and the Carlisle United fans, not getting caught out at the back will be a nagging doubt and a headache for the Carlisle back line.

Can they do it? Well, Carlisle will need to do a job on Bradford City's most effective passer of the ball in Adam Clayton, who scored an 81% pass accuracy stat on Sunday night, the second highest of any player in either starting eleven (Jamie Walker topped him with 85 % pass completion). While Richie Smallwood was far more active on the ball, his pass completion percentage was much lower at just 65 % - but that's similar to that achieved by rivals Ben Barclay (69 %) and Owen Moxon (68 %), neither of whom blew the Bradford City midfield away with their performances – though Moxon's delivery from set pieces was of notable high quality.

They say games are won and lost in midfield: well if Sunday night was anything to go by, that ultimately appears to favour Bradford City. But then, Saturday afternoon is a completely different game, with completely different requirements all round. City need to get the balance right, while Carlisle United need to prove they haven't run out of steam at just the wrong time.

Expect some frayed nerves by the end of this one!

Odds:

11/10: Carlisle United
12/5: Draw
5/2: Bradford City

Predicted Outcome (THE VOICE):

Carlisle United 1 – 1 Bradford City