Most liked posts in thread: World war 3....

I don’t believe that Putin is crazy. But I do believe that he’s an unreconstructed Cold War USSR apologist who believes that Russia should still be in control of most of Eastern Europe. He despises the fact that most of the former satellite Russian states have chosen to ditch Russia and become western democracies. His denial of independent Ukrainian history is a classic example of that. He believes that Ukraine is part of Russia and is not entitled to its own identity or separate history and culture. His schools are busy brainwashing captured Ukrainian children into believing that they are really Russians.

When he illegally annexed a big chunk of Eastern Ukraine in 2014 he confirmed the worst fears of the former USSR states. Nobody forced those countries to join the EU or NATO - they primarily did it as protection from Putin. In my view, anyone who seriously believes that Putin would stop at Ukraine, if he succeeds in fully capturing it, is living in cloud cuckoo land. Moldova and Georgia would be next, then the three Baltic States etc etc.

Heaven knows I’m no big fan of US cultural and military imperialism. And there’s very little that @Tony Wilkinson and I agree with politically. But I’m with him on this one. The threat of the US is a major factor in reining in the worst of Putin’s imperial ambitions. I shudder to think what will happen if Trump gets back in and rolls over to have his tummy tickled by his dictatorial hero, Putin.

 

I can guarantee you that none of us with roots in such countries want to return to that. For starters, we all have too many missing branches already in our family trees... It is why it was so important, despite some disadvanteages, for all of those countries to get into NATO and into the EU as quickly as possible.
For Putin and the Russians, lying is as natural as breathing to the rest of us, but sometimes the truth does come out. Putin has spoken of restoring the Russian Empire -- not, mark you, the USSR -- and in that we should believe him. At the moment, we still have the chance to stop him, with the Ukrainians doing all the hard work and the dying. If they fail, then we and our children will be doing the dying.

There may be even more sides, but not all sides are equally valid, nor worthy of equal consideration. Putin is not Churchill, who could, and did, write books on history that remain worth reading. He is a dictator trying to justify his war on completely invalid, invented, grounds -- as is clearly and thoroughly pointed out by Snyder. When it comes to Ukrainian and related history, you can very easily do a lot worse than Snyder, but will find it hard to do better. The linked article is important.

With easily-debunked pseudo-history.

Carlson was the useful idiot, whose function was to get this particular piece of propaganda out to a wider audience.

RCB

 

All about narratives no matter which side you look at. As you get older you realise there is no such thing as news, merely agendas that are covered as 'news'. Putin is no worse than the likes of Blair or Bush, I don't watch news channels so I don't get blinded by the bullshit they broadcast.

 

wow. That’s hilarious…..

 

In 2017 we spent a fortnight on holiday in Russia. We were amazed at the number of their people that we met who made disparaging comments about Putin and the KGB.
Hopefully once the sanctions affect the masses in Russia the protests will grow and lead to him being overthrown.
The Russian Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin, has a background in industry and economy and must be worried about future if the Western Alliance stands firm.

 

I disagree it makes a big difference to their ability to wage war if it gets to the stage where there are mass riots around the country. That and huge economic sanctions would cripple moral and their ability to wage war. It also effects soldiers on the front line if they’re worried about family back home being punished by a government which they are fighting for.

There is every reason we should exclude Russia from every thing possible. A fed up unmotivated population is no good when at war. The thing we shouldn’t do is attack or bomb them and give them chance to be victims, the blitz was a huge mistake by Hitler and strengthened British resolve not weakened it. Let Russians know there is a way out of it if they pull out and encourage peace.

 

A few general comments with the replies to your posts:

First, a big tip of the hat to the Ukrainians, especially the soldiers and civilian volunteers for their resistance, and all for their endurance. If anyone was in any doubt, it is clear where their sympathies lie. There should be no hesitation now about putting Ukraine on the road to EU membership.

An equally big tip of the hat to Ukraine's political leaders, who have remained to lead from the front. Even Poroschenko is there, despite his problems with the current government. This is courage, and leadership. Leaders of other countries take note. That said, I do hope that alternate arrangements have been made, so that if Kiev and/or Zelensky falls, the government will continue, presumably from Lviv.

As the Estonian President Karis said yesterday, this is not the Russian people's war, but Putin's. There is a deep discontent in Russia today, amongst elites and the rest, with Putin's government, but for obvious reasons it has had to stay underground. One hopes that the discontent will become more widespread, and public. I see now that the number of arrests for dissent has risen to over 4000, and that protests have occurred in 44 cities so far.

It is, has been, and always will be, worrying for anyone living in any country bordering Russia, until the mindset of the leadership changes. You can never be certain of the future, must always have an escape plan, and must be ready to drop everything and flee.

I think that there have to be serious questions about the state of Putin's mind. He is not the same, shrewd, wily character of the past. The other day in America a ranking Republican -- and thus one who gets the intelligence briefings -- said there was something "off" about Putin. The threats to use nukes, made twice now, is nothing new; he has made such threats before. Still, it is a worrying indicator of his state of mind. There is no threat to Russian territory from the "West;"
not even the US wants to invade -- I'd say the only real threat of invasion Russia has is from China. This, again, is manufacturing pretexts.

And Putin his miscalculated in several major ways. First, in thinking that Ukraine would roll over and surrender, as the Crimea and Luhansk/Donetsk operations had worked. But, at least in L/D, he had majority Russian populations to deal with; no surprise they'd be friendly. But he seems to have expected the Ukrainians and the Ukrainian armed forces to be the same.

Second, leading from the first: logistics and training of the invasion army.

Third, in thinking the West would be weak. Instead, he has unified and strengthened the West -- Europe and North America in particular, along with NATO and the EU. He now has, all along his borders, much more of exactly what he didn't want. And I note that Germany is now going to boost its military in mighty fashion, and see about building LNG terminals and finding alternate sources of energy.

It is also good to see a vindication of the intelligence departments of the US/UK, after poor work in the recent past. Thanks to the release of information about Putin's plans, the whole world now sees clearly who has been telling the truth, and who has been lying. For the US, I read the other day that there was a deliberate shift in emphasis once Biden took over, from counterterrorism operations, in which one was always reacting to the past, to focussing on future threats, namely Russia and China. That change has paid off.

RCB

 

I read yesterday that the number of such nations is now some 25... I don't know them all, but US, UK, Canada, Estonia, Lithuania, Germany, Poland, France, Czech Rep., the Netherlands, Portugal, Azerbaijan, Australia come immediately to mind. I expect some help but wish to remain anonymous.

I agree with @WilsdenBantam -- the permanent removal of Putin from this world, let alone power, is necessary. But, it always seems that tyrants (Putin, Hitler, Stalin, Mao, etc. etc.) lead charmed lives while the good leaders get killed. Putin has become another Hitler -- the ranting speech, the disconnexion from reality, the bluster, the threats, the military actions -- absolute power has corrupted absolutely.

RCB

 

You really should be on the stage

Trump is Putin's poodle. He'd have appeased him until doomsday.

 

There is no good end game here is my view. Putin will push and push until Ukraine is "his" and Ukraine will continue resisting as best they can.

For once I'm not sure the West's decisions come down to money for the most part - the sanctions to a degree bite both ways so are already costing. If it's a simple choice between giving up Ukraine and a full on war with Putin they are going to pick the first option. We're not going to do anything that's seen to start a war with Russia until we're 100% obligated to. That is the Russian strength and our weakness.

 

They do have drones, and there was a report/video the other day, I think it was on CNN, about a successful strike. Ithink this might be part of their overall plan to sacrifice the open spaces and protect the cities. They could pick off bits and pieces as the convoy moves, but I fear that then it would be easy for the convoy to take out the source of the attack. Maybe it's better to have them all massed in one place -- certainly an attack then on the convoy would be more damaging.

Yes, he certainly has miscalculated. LIke other tyrants, he may well have no one left around him who will tell him "no," even when these people know that "no" is the right answer. Crimea and the separatist insurgency went well; he seems to have expected the rest of the country to be the same. But the rest of the country is overwhelmingly Ukrainian. No matter what he believes, they are not the same.

There's been some good analysis of just this question on (primarily) CNN. Whatever proportion of the country he eventually controls -- beyond the Crimea and the separatist parts of the Donbas -- he will have an overwhelmingly hostile population to deal with. There will be no consent to being governed, just toleration and biding one's time.

The forces he has are not thought to be enough to maintain control, not of the cities let alone the country. For example, if he were to take the whole country, 44 million people, and only keep 150,000 troops in, that works out to 293 Ukrainians per soldier, or roughly 3.4 soldiers per 1000 Ukrainians. By comparison, the allies in post-WWII Germany had 89 troops per 1000, and in more recent wars the numbers have ranged between 10-20 troops per thousand. He will also have to deal with a counter-insurgency, that will be well-armed and funded, and will continue for years. Any puppet regime would have to eliminate free elections, or they won't last.

There is indeed no good endgame for Putin in this.

* * *

There is only one man to blame for this war, Putin. The Ukrainians have made it very clear where their sympathies lie, with the West, Europe, and democracy. They are fighting and dying for this. They have proven their worth. They must be put on the road to EU membership. It is very encouraging to see the open letter published by 8 of the EU nations yesterday urging just this. And they must be supported by us with arms, humanitarian aid, and funds.

RCB

 

I think from the bits I’ve heard on radio 5 today, there are some sanctions going on the Belarus top brass, can’t recall exactly what they said. But it sounds like a start, they’ve facilitated the movement of Russian troops and vehicles, which is maybe not surprising given it looks like he is allied with Putin or at least in his pocket - tbf he soonds like a ‘lovely bloke’ the leader of Belarus, from what info we hear, here. It’s all immaterial as he is basically helping them and who knows, it may go further yet with them helping militarily. It’s going to hit the normal people in the long run, same as in Russia, no matter what protests they make it seems pretty impotent, almost like Nato’s position! I feel the protestors in place like Moscow and St Petersburg in their own right are showing amazing courage doing that but it’s not like they can overthrow a government.

 

I know left wing people who haven't voted for years for various reasons - eg, they think it's pointless because the overwhelmingly right wing press will always skew the result rightwards; they believe that the establishment will always close ranks to thwart any meaningful change towards a more just society; because they think the Labour Party is too middle of the road; because they live in rural areas where their vote has no chance of making any difference, etc etc. So it's not just social conservatives who don't vote.
The majority of habitual non voters are likely to be unaligned and centrist. Most people who have strong and relatively fixed left or right sympathies tend to vote out of duty.

 

Where have you got this information from?

According to fact-checking organisation Newsguard, this is one of a number of myths promoted online by Russian backed websites. Have you seen or read it in any reputable news media?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/russia-ukraine-conflict-top-10-war-myths-newsguard?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

 

It's a strange logic trying to blame the leader of the country that has been invaded through no fault of its own other than being a carriage to add to a mad dictators train set.

 

That isn't zelenskys fault, it isn't up to russia to dictate what a sovereign country can and cannot do. I dont necessarily agree with them joining nato either, but what I certainly don't agree with is russia saying something isn't allowed to a completely sovereign and independent nation.

 

Talk of going after Putin as a war criminal which I'd love to see as it should mean we would go after the likes of Blair and Bush.

 

I think we've got more chance of signing putin as a backup centre forward for city than getting him to the hague. I don't even think he would really care that much if he did get charged as a war criminal to be honest, in his mind nothing he's doing is any worse than the actions of the west in other regions

 

It's as I mentioned earlier when talking about realpolitik -- you get these "weird" situations where supplying arms is fine, but not joining in and using them yourselves; an economic blockade is fine but a naval blockade would be an act of war...and thus the problems with Poland (or anyone else) giving Ukraine their old MiGs. If flown into Ukraine from Poland (or another NATO country) by Polish (i.e. NATO) pilots, then there would be the chance that those pilots would get into a dogfight with Russians, and thus be joining the war. If flown by Ukrainian pilots, then there is still the problem of launching from a NATO airfield to possibly engage with Russians. I've seen a suggestion that perhaps the planes could be partly dismantled and taken in by road or rail, to be reassembled in Ukraine. That would be alright, but I've no idea if that is feasible.

In normal life one never really thinks about these sorts of things (well, I don't), but this all does drive home how complicated wars and international relations actually are.

RCB