World war 3....

Indeed. And the more he'll lash out at other nations who provide assistance

 

I read yesterday that the number of such nations is now some 25... I don't know them all, but US, UK, Canada, Estonia, Lithuania, Germany, Poland, France, Czech Rep., the Netherlands, Portugal, Azerbaijan, Australia come immediately to mind. I expect some help but wish to remain anonymous.

I agree with @WilsdenBantam -- the permanent removal of Putin from this world, let alone power, is necessary. But, it always seems that tyrants (Putin, Hitler, Stalin, Mao, etc. etc.) lead charmed lives while the good leaders get killed. Putin has become another Hitler -- the ranting speech, the disconnexion from reality, the bluster, the threats, the military actions -- absolute power has corrupted absolutely.

RCB

 

We need to send Andy Mcnab and Chris Ryan over there. I’m sure there’s several itching to have a pop at him. Problem is, it’ll start a full scale war if someone does knock him off.

 

Talks to take place between Russian and Ukrainian delegations. I think Russia knows its bitten off more than other can chew, but it'll want to avoid an embarrassing climb down.

 

I just can't see what they'll agree on. Vlad saying "oh yeah, we've now decided that those parts of Ukraine we think are part of Russia, now aren't. And actually, we wanted to take all of Ukraine, but have now decided we don't want to". And the Ukranian president "yeah thanks for realising that. Let's just go back to how things were. We're not worried you might do it again".

 

I have a feeling something will get sorted. An uneasy ceasefire at least.

 

There's no shortage of suitable people/organisations! The SAS, various US special forces, Canadian special forces, Mossad (especially)... I think they would probably have to take out a few more besides, e.g. Lavrov, but I'm not so sure a big war would follow. Again from yesterday's Estonian news (article on ERR), there was an interview where a specialist described that broadcast meeting between Putin and his team not so much as leader and advisors, but master and servants. Moreover, some of those servants seemed distinctly uneasy and afraid.

That would be a start. This war is not going Russia's way; I can see demands to keep the separatist areas and the Crimea at minimum, plus assurances of Ukrainian neutrality. The latter need not be a problem; like Sweden and Finland, for example, Ukraine could join the EU but not NATO. The former would be problematic, though historically, Crimea indeed was part of Russia. Still, its presence as part of Russia would always be a problem for Ukraine. However, could/would anyone believe any assurances Russia would now make about another nation's security and rights to self-rule and self-determination? But ways out for Russia have to be left open.

At least there is some humour in all this. I read yesterday of a Russian vehicle stalling in Kharkiv (I believe it was), due lack of diesel. A passerby was heard asking if they'd like a tow back across the border!

RCB

 

I won't do it justice, but I read yesterday about the likely Russian military tactics for this invasion, and why they're now feeling the pain. Essentially, it goes something along the lines of: Russia didn't worry too much about supply lines and logistics, As they expected rapid progress and little resistance, the front edge of their force are multiple prongs of armoured divisions moving at pace, across many fronts and where progress is made, supply is then consolidated. The response to this approach, which the Ukrainians would have anticipated, was to 'allow' these armoured units to progress and become exposed, then halt the advance and allow supply line logistics to become such and issue that the armoured divisions are massively reduced in terms of their efficacy.

The level of opposition has clearly taken Putin by surprise. The question is whether he responds in a conciliatory manner, or whether he loses his shit

 

Putin will demand the Donbass region transferred to Russia and that the Ukraine gives a cast iron guarantee not to join NATO, Not much to ask for peace.

 

The FA have now come out and said England will not play Russia in any competition for the immediate future, well done the FA.

 

Cracking post River_City_Bantam

 

Russia have always been an overrated nation when it comes to war. They always get their backsides kicked to steal the ministry of defences phrase. Afghanistan, World war 2 was just sheer numbers and the Nazis were so stretched because Hitler had gone mad and kept moving troops like chess pieces. World war 1 had to give up, Japanese war got spanked to a so called inferior nation and against Britain in Crimea. Their leaders always put little value on life, Stalin once said they’re just numbers on a board when the death toll was being shown to him.

The real danger unfortunately is that they have nuclear capabilities and it doesn’t take strategy or superior fire arms to use one of them, just a total madman, which they aren’t short of. The worry is even if Putin was killed off are his government who help him in his madness much better? Operation Valkyrie showed why you can’t just kill the leader because usually equally dangerous nutters follow them.

Let’s hope some sort of peace can be agreed, even if for the time been.

 

That analysis of the defence tactics agrees in general with what I've read too -- sacrifice the open spaces and concentrate on defending the major cities. So far it is working. And yes, the resistance has certainly surprised Putin.

On the one hand, the population of the Donbas is heavily weighted towards ethnic Russians, and historically it wasn't really Ukraine proper. So let it go. On the other hand, appeasing a tyrant only emboldens him. Remember Chamberlain. Thus do not let it go. On the next hand, would you want to keep within your country such a large number of people who may not only not be friendly, but also work actively against you? So let it go. Finding yet another hand, one worries that one redrawing of the border will lead to more. First the currently occupied areas, then the whole of the two provinces, and so on. Thus do not let it go. No easy answer.

NATO is perhaps easier, in that joining the EU but staying out of NATO might work. I would hope though, in that case, that the EU and NATO make it very clear that in case of any future invasion, all promises are off. I expect one would also need a permanent UN peacekeeping presence along the entirety of the Ukrainian border.

Indeed. A few tens of millions of bodies scattered throughout the grounds of the former Soviet Union testify to that. THe nukes and threats to use them are a worry, but at this moment I would still prefer to have Putin's hands removed from the button. Eliminating him alone mightn't be a complete answer, but it would be a start.

RCB

 

I thought I'd put this bit into a separate post. It's extracted from the Ukraine thread on the Estonian World website, and Terras is eminently qualified to speak on such matters, and I have no reason to believe either he or the website are putting out fake news. Whether the information he has received is correct or not, who can say.

"26 February 2022 – Estonian MEP: If Ukraine holds off Russia for 10 days, Russia will have to negotiate
The official Facebook page of the European People’s Party’s European Parliament group posted “intel” from Riho Terras, an Estonian MEP and the former Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, who’s saying that he received information from a Ukrainian officer about a a meeting in Russian president Vladimir Putin’s lair in the Urals. “Oligarchs convened there so no one would flee. Putin is furious, he thought that the whole war would be easy and everything would be done in 1-4 days.”

“Russians didn’t have a tactical plan. The war costs about $20 bln/day. There are rockets for 3-4 days at most, they use them sparingly. They lack weapons, the Tula and 2 Rotenberg plants can’t physically fulfil the orders for weapons. Rifles and ammo are the most they can do.

The next Russian weapons can be produced in 3-4 months – if even that. They have no raw materials. What was previously supplied mainly from Slovenia, Finland and Germany is now cut off.”

“If Ukraine manages to hold the Russians off for 10 days, then the Russians will have to enter negotiations. Because they have no money, weapons, or resources. Nevertheless, they are indifferent about the sanctions.”“Alpha Spec Ops have been near Kyiv since the 18th February. The goal was to take Kyiv and instal a puppet regime. They are preparing provocations against innocent civilians – women and children – to sow panic. This is their trump card.” "

I hope he's right about the problems. I fear he will be right about the atrocities.

The overall thread can be found here:

https://estonianworld.com/security/blog-russia-ukraine-crisis-a-view-from-estonia/

RCB

 

I agree it’d be a start, but when state tv are putting the below out it’s obvious a case of more than one man he’s simply the Hitler to the Nazi party. If it were one man and nobody followed people like Hitler, Starlin, Hussain and Putin would be assassinated with ease.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621be528980bea49f4b7a634%26%27Why%20do%20we%20need%20a%20world%20if%20Russia%27s%20not%20in%20it%3F%27%262022-02-27T21%3A41%3A51.572Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:65b867c5-fcf1-453c-82b6-fed8d2645265&pinned_post_asset_id=621be528980bea49f4b7a634&pinned_post_type=share

 

He won’t be far off, if nuclear weapons weren’t involved I’d expect Britain to be able to beat Russia in a boots on the ground war, let alone the rest of NATO I’ve said it on here before, their GDP is similar to Italy’s and they still use a fair bit of Cold War equipment. Their geographical size is something that works against them as many east of the Ural Mountains don’t see themselves as ‘Moscow Russians’. Their population is very small for the size of their country and many people are rural and poor. These aren’t a super power, but unfortunately nuclear weapons are a great and horrible leveller. If the madman gets desperate which he may it maybe where he turns. He must be hurting as well after China didn’t vote for them in the Security Council and told them to negotiate. It’s like America telling us off. I imagine Putin is very disillusioned atm.

 

FWIW, a post from an aviation website that I read. The poster is a now long-retired former aircraft salesman for at least one British company, and has extensive experience dealing with Russia and what was known as the Eastern Bloc. He has written a short book about his career; it would have been longer were he able to publish all he knows.

"From electronic conversations with my Ukrainian contacts last night:

The doctor lady is working in a huge basement underneath a hospital in Kiev. They have moved as many patients as possible there and staff are working continuously. She does not go home and has a bed in her office, which as she says, is probably safer than being in her flat, but everyone is frightened. She said that people are amazed and emboldened by the support from the rest of the world and it helps them a lot. She is dealing with the injured, both civilian and military. They are busy, but not overwhelmed, apparently."

So for civilians: keep up the protests -- not much more we out here can do, other than contribute to the various Red Cross appeals for aid. And for governments: keep up the shipments of equipment and other goods.

"My other contact, who has direct links to the military, told me the following: (there is no way of verifying any of the figures at the moment, but knowing the person as I do, I am prepared to take them at face value). More than 3,500 Russian troops have been killed and the Ukrainians have taken 200 prisoners. (I wouldn't want to be one of them!). Also, they've downed eight helicopters, destroyed 102 tanks and 536 armoured vehicles. On Friday night they spotted an IL-76 flying near Odesa. They suspected it would be dropping a stick of paratroopers, and they were right. They reckon about 50 left the aircraft, but none of them made it to land. Neither did they make it out of the icy waters of the Black Sea. A senior officer apparently made the statement on TV. They also showed on TV the crew of a captured armoured vehicle, who, when questioned, said they thought they were on an exercise and didn't fully understand that they were fighting a war. Well, to paraphrase the fragrant Mandy Rice-Davies, 'They would say that wouldn't they?' However, I can well believe that they may have been misinformed to stop them from defecting. It is also reported that they shot down an IL-76 in one of the northern regions, which it was believed was about to land.

I am surprised that the MSM are not announcing figures about losses. Obviously there will have been a lot from the Ukrainian side too, but usually you get some sort of indication about what's going on. The 'I counted them all out and I counted them all back' type of thing. Perhaps they don't want to annoy Vlad any more than he probably is. I imagine incandescent might be a good description. We don't want him throwing his nuclear toys out of his cot, though."

I've seen these sorts of numbers elsewhere too. I at any rate think they are believable.

On the topic of Putin and his health: I have seen rumours of cancer diagnoses in recent years, and the suggestion that his current ranting is reminiscent of someone on lots of steroids. No idea if there is any truth to either suggestion, but a terminal illness coupled with a desire to leave his mark could go some way to explaining his current behaviour.

RCB

 

Another good piece RCB, I would assume the Russian properganda would be similar to the Chinese with Covid, they tell you their side of the situation which is not actually the case.

 

How do posters think the world will react if Belarus send their troops into the Ukraine, at the moment Belarus is allowing Russian troops to cross their borders to invade the Ukraine but fighting along side Russian troops is quite another thing.

Belarus may be about to send its troops into Ukraine, US official says (msn.com)