Where will it end... 12th September as it happens

R rate in London higher than Yorkshire, yet we’re in lockdown hmm

 

Just two areas of Yorkshire have seen their coronavirus infection rate rise in the latest figures from Public Health England.

And the three local authority areas currently under stricter lockdown measures have all seen their rates fall, as councils demand the government release them from the tougher rules. An announcement on the restrictions is expected later today.

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/local-news/covid-infection-rates-fall-bradford-18835706

There's been 4 deaths in Yorkshire in the last 8 days.

 

can see the other areas coming out but not Bradford

 

This is all bollocks now...

We all know whats what. If the death rate is low then we should be cracking on as normal.

Vaccine talk seems to have stopped. So let people make their own minds up now.

 

It's worth noting that Yorkshire was seeing about 100 cases per day at the end of July (often posted on this thread) and we now have about 0.5 deaths per day a month later. If we picked up EVERY SINGLE infection in testing, that would be a mortality rate of 0.5% - about 3 times as bad as average UK flu. We clearly are not getting every single case when testing is voluntary and maybe 80% of cases are asymptomatic so most don't get tested as they don't feel ill. Nationally, comparing the weekly household infection survey to daily swab testing results suggests 2/3rds of cases were missed recently by swab testing. That means (crudely if the same applied, which it might not) the mortality rate from actual Yorkshire infections of maybe 300 per day at the end of July and 0.5 deaths now was maybe somewhere around 0.17% - marginally ahead of normal seasonal flu. (Note, media often mention 0.1% for flu but that is the global figure, including hotter countries. UK tends to be around 0.15%, though it varies considerably from year to year. 9 of the last 10 years have been above 0.1%.)

 

Would agree but there does seem to be an unhealthy amount of pro footballers/rugby guys catching or getting close to the virus...

 

Surely the flu figure will also be out as well as not everyone is tested for that either so the number of actual cases will be a lot higher.

 

They're human. They will catch a cold and the flu.

The issue with sport though is it might stop fans coming back in this season.

 

Yes, the historic flu figure might be higher if it were recorded like Covid has been.

 

or a lot lower if we had such heavy testing for it

 

Didn't know what you meant at first. Yes, flu mortality might be a lot lower if widespread testing uncovered 80% of asymptomatic cases. But flu is well researched so I imagine that would already be documented if it were the case. I've never read anything. I might have a look for it.

 

How are they working the flu mortality out? And for COVID?

 

I don't know everything and never pretended to!

It's probably as confusing as everything else is - you can have umpteen variants of what figures you want yet media just report the scary ones and don't explain them. UK cases jumped to 1522 today? No - not really. The headline might be misleading. 940 were REPORTED today that were actually tested in previous days and 249 were over a week old! This useful series of tweets shows:

Backlog in the number



By date they rose for 6 weeks but now look to be falling maybe?



But the hit rate has not risen much. Most rise is due to more testing



Regional hit rates in the last week

Falling - Yorkshire, Northwest, E.Midlands, W.Midlands. Flat - Northeast, East England. Up - London, Southeast, Southwest.

 

I might be wrong but, from what I've read, the latest days' data are not complete enough and local lockdowns will be based on the week to the 23rd, for which there is an interactive map in this link:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12307697/interactive-map-reveals-coronavirus-cases-rising-local-area/

Edit - it now seems announcements will be tomorrow so maybe they can use later days' data.

 

News starting to leak out?

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/huddersfield-colne-valley-come-out-18845125

 

https://www.strayfm.com/news/local-news/3170555/coronavirus-local-lockdown-lifted-in-some-parts-of-bradford-district/

 

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/local-news/restrictions-lifted-kirklees-bradford-calderdale-18847027