Where will it end... 12th September as it happens

I thought I'd posted this here but could not see it when I looked back so I'll do it again.

Fig 24 on page 20. Emergency Department Covid attendances (as primary diagnosis) fell quite sharply in the week to 09/08/20. The daily 09/08/20 figure was only half a week earlier. That could be a blip but the 7 day average keeps going down, too. Ask yourself how new cases can be going up and up for the last 5 weeks and yet ED attendances can keep falling over that time. Also, page 21 shows hospital admissions down about 14% on the last week and Intensive Care admissions down 1/4. The virus is still making fewer and fewer people ill enough to go to hospital regardless of what media headlines say about new cases.

Https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909424/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_33_FINAL.pdf

Viruses tend to mutate weaker and this one has been mutating a little. More cases and less illness could be down to a weaker virus or down to more testing picking up previously missed cases rather than any real increase in prevalence. It could also be both.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6501/238?rss%3D1=

 

I'm sorry but that makes no sense as an explanation even if true. Hospital admissions have fallen from 1.2/100k per week 4 weeks ago to under 0.7/100k last week and Emergency Department attendances have about halved. Deaths are down about 3/4 in English hospitals in the last month from 20-25 to about 5. I don't think an increase in young people getting it in the last month or two since the measured positives started increasing leads to 50% fewer people needing hospital treatment and deaths falling by 3/4. Surely greatly reduced hospital activity is old people getting the virus less or the virus getting weaker, either of which is great news.

 

3 deaths in all settings on Friday under the 28-day cut-off. On the 4000 estimated new cases per day from the household infection survey, anything under about 15 and no restrictions are justified. Even though the 28-day cut-off is probably undercounting it a bit. It's starting to look like all restrictions should end. Latest numbers look no worse than flu and maybe even less. It could do with sustaining for a week or two first to see a steady number but this looks like it might be over very soon with a bit of luck.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

 

If I've made no mistake, Bradford's Pillar 1+2 new case numbers combined since available from 3rd of July is:
32,28,14,31,39,26,22,30,27,21,29,36,38,33,32,27,27,33,35,50,30,23,39,38,41,44,46,57,31

From August 1st
20,60,24,41,47,54.16,73,29, no data, 105(2 days), no data, 99 (2 days), 13

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/health/locations-134-new-cases-coronavirus-18775780

 

EU Covid deaths continued to fall in August - down about 20% - as new cases rose about 50%. (Fig.1). So, like the UK, increasing new cases are not being matched with increasing hospitalisations and deaths.

Individual country trends (page 26+) show the only EU countries with rising death trends were: Bulgaria, Croatia (peaking?), Czechia, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia. Data was not complete but, despite a 60%+ rise in new cases across the EU over the previous two week period, hospitalisations had only increased in Bulgaria, Croatia,Czechia, Luxembourg, Romania and Slovenia. There will be a delay as new cases progress to illness, severe illness and death, but it looks like strong rises in new cases are not translating into significant hospital activity as yet.


Https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/covid-19-rapid-risk-assessment-20200810.pdf

The above figures are a week or two out of date but the trend seems the same since. A couple of Eastern European countries have seen improving trends on infection and deaths, though Poland has got worse. Big "wave 1" countries have seen significant increases in cases but virtually no increases in deaths - UK, Italy, Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium. Although Spain has seen a slight rise in deaths, the rise of about 14 per day is pretty modest compared to the rise in new cases of 3000 per day since mid-June before it peaked a week ago.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The same picture seems to be occurring everywhere. Deaths don't seem to be following the increases in new cases, and hospital activity and deaths in most places are still flat or falling, as they are in the EU overall.

 

Think we just need to be careful about the lag between cases and deaths. If cases are still "high" in 6-8 weeks but the death or even hospitalization rate is unchanged then we can be a bit more positive and confident.

It's at least a start of potential good news but maybe a tad early to be absolutely sure yet.

 

That's better - lowest 2-day total in the series.


If I've made no mistake, Bradford's Pillar 1+2 new case numbers combined since available from 3rd of July is:
32,28,14,31,39,26,22,30,27,21,29,36,38,33,32,27,27,33,35,50,30,23,39,38,41,44,46,57,31

From August 1st
20,60,24,41,47,54,16,73,29, no data, 105(2 days), no data, 99 (2 days), 13, 26

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/locations-131-new-cases-coronavirus-18779334

 

Much better for Bradford and a good number for all of Yorkshire at only 82.

If I've made no mistake, Bradford's Pillar 1+2 new case numbers combined since available from 3rd of July is:
32,28,14,31,39,26,22,30,27,21,29,36,38,33,32,27,27,33,35,50,30,23,39,38,41,44,46,57,31

From August 1st
20,60,24,41,47,54,16,73,29, no data, 105(2 days), no data, 99 (2 days), 13, 26, 24

https://www.leeds-live.co.uk/news/leeds-news/number-new-covid-cases-leeds-18785510


Also, UK figures new cases figures look a little better. Western European summer rises in new cases are just not being matched with rising deaths and there are signs it's peaked (some schools gone back, holiday jobs finished and Eastern Europeans gone home again). Spain has seen a rise in cases AND deaths but parts of Spain missed wave 1 (as did most of Greece). Have a look at Italy though - new cases up from 180 to 480 in 6 weeks. Deaths down from 20 to 5. Netherlands' new cases rose around 600 to a 650 peak a week ago while deaths rose 1 to 2. (All 7-day averages)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/

Because swab testing probably picks up no more than 20% of new cases in Europe (25-35% in UK where testing is higher) , wave 2 summer flurries seem to have death rates no worse than flu where they have risen. I grant young people might skew figures but I think this is exaggerated when old and vulnerable people have been coming out of shielding. It's more likely we lost the very vulnerable early on and most of the damage is already done. I think this is nearly over and we should consider lifting all restrictions. We've seen we can reimpose short-term lockdowns if it takes off anywhere again. It's time to try live normally again.

 

Government decides to expand community testing. Talk about taking your time. An expanded community study could mean it's all over soon. Will the end come in time for Christmas to save retail and leisure businesses that are struggling on life support? I hope this means restrictions for everyone, including sports spectators, might be lifted in, perhaps, November?

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53806117

 

Up again but 7-day average might still be falling so long as they stay under 50 for the next few days.

If I've made no mistake, Bradford's Pillar 1+2 new case numbers combined since available from 3rd of July is:
32,28,14,31,39,26,22,30,27,21,29,36,38,33,32,27,27,33,35,50,30,23,39,38,41,44,46,57,31

From August 1st
20,60,24,41,47,54,16,73,29, no data, 105(2 days), no data, 99 (2 days),13,26,24,49

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/local-news/bradford-once-again-sees-biggest-18791748

 

Bradford still improving. A total of 90 for Yorkshire is also a good figure.

If I've made no mistake, Bradford's Pillar 1+2 new case numbers combined since available from 3rd of July is:
32,28,14,31,39,26,22,30,27,21,29,36,38,33,32,27,27,33,35,50,30,23,39,38,41,44,46,57,31

From August 1st
20,60,24,41,47,54,16,73,29, no data, 105(2 days), no data, 99 (2 days),13,26,24,49,29

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/locations-90-new-coronavirus-cases-18797918

 

Spain have had a weirdly quick uptick in deaths today. From 14/15 last week to 24 yesterday and 124 today - the biggest number since May.

Anybody seen any reasoning behind this or is it simply the lag from the uptick in cases from early July. if it's just the lag that's definitely a concern.

 

I've been told Spain reports deaths within 24 hours promptly but deaths reported after 24 hours get totted up and added on a weekly basis. Can't verify.

 

UK hospital admissions down 60% in 6 weeks from about 200 to 80. Exclude Wales and admissions are down 75% in just 6 weeks from about 150 to just under 40. Yorkshire & NE hospital admissions fell from about 30 per day to at the start of July to about 7 or 8 last weekend - also a 75% fall in 6 weeks.

Http://covidtracker.uksouth.cloudapp.azure.com/

 

Still getting better but I suspect they will probably want a bit more improvement to lift lockdown.

If I've made no mistake, Bradford's Pillar 1+2 new case numbers combined since available from 3rd of July is:
32,28,14,31,39,26,22,30,27,21,29,36,38,33,32,27,27,33,35,50,30,23,39,38,41,44,46,57,31

From August 1st
20,60,24,41,47,54,16,73,29, no data, 105(2 days), no data, 99 (2 days),13,26,24,49,29,39

https://www.leeds-live.co.uk/news/yorkshire-news/locations-142-newly-confirmed-cases-18803813

Hospital Covid admissions in Yorkshire and Northeast down again to 64 in 7-days to August 16th. It was 140 in the week to July 16th.

http://covidtracker.uksouth.cloudapp.azure.com/

Yorkshire and Northeast region covers about 8 million people. Hospital Covid admissions of 64 per week would typically produce 4 or 5 deaths per week in a few weeks' time - less than one per day. All other causes would produce about 180 deaths per day in this region in all settings so the extra risk from Covid at current levels of infection is extremely low.

 

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/health/live-coronavirus-updates-west-yorkshire-18786058

The government is introducing a new way of targeting local authorities which could see parts of Kirklees, Calderdale and Bradford where COVID-19 is less prevalent exempted from restrictions. There has been frustration among West Yorkshire residents where there are very few if any cases of COVID-19 that they have to suffer the same restrictions where the virus is thriving. So as of Wednesday, leaders of Calderdale, Bradford and Kirklees councils and local MPs will be tasked with providing a resume of the situation for a meeting of the Joint Biosecurity Centre. The government is stressing that local leadership will be expected to seek consensus between councils and local MPs and recommend the appropriate geography which fits local travel patterns, work and social behaviours for restrictions to be active in. Areas within the local authority where COVID-19 is less prevalent are expected to be exempt from any restrictions. Then on Thursday the Joint Biosecurity Centre Gold Meeting, chaired by the Secretary of State Matt Hancock with the Chief Medical Officer, Prof Chris Whitty, will then make the final decision based on the local recommendation, or recommendations if consensus cannot be reached.

 

No comments on lockdowns going more local?


Bradford has shown a good improvement in the last few days.

If I've made no mistake, Bradford's Pillar 1+2 new case numbers combined since available from 3rd of July is:
32,28,14,31,39,26,22,30,27,21,29,36,38,33,32,27,27,33,35,50,30,23,39,38,41,44,46,57,31

From August 1st
20,60,24,41,47,54,16,73,29, no data, 105(2 days), no data, 99 (2 days),13,26,24,49,29,39,28

https://www.leeds-live.co.uk/news/yorkshire-news/locations-100-newly-confirmed-cases-18810970



Northeast and Yorkshire hospital admissions continue to ease to only 60 in the 7-days ending 18th August - down from 78 the previous week. (Recent mortality rates suggest 4 of those will die in early September - so working out about one every other day.) Wales had 337 in the last week which accounts for about half of all UK hospital admissions (from 357 week earlier). The Southwest (up from 16 to 18) and Midlands (up from 59 to 90) have seen increasing hospital admissions.

http://covidtracker.uksouth.cloudapp.azure.com/

 

Disappointing. Friday's numbers are often lower.

If I've made no mistake, Bradford's Pillar 1+2 new case numbers combined since available from 3rd of July is:
32,28,14,31,39,26,22,30,27,21,29,36,38,33,32,27,27,33,35,50,30,23,39,38,41,44,46,57,31

From August 1st
20,60,24,41,47,54,16,73,29, no data, 105(2 days), no data, 99 (2 days),13,26,24,49,29,39,28,36

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/health/latest-coronavirus-figures-every-place-18814127

 

Does this thread end on September 12th?