Where will it end... 12th September as it happens

There will be no resucitation attempt. Especially if we are attacking.

 

If we are attacking?

Plenty of time for resuscitation then.

 

Death rate amongst hospital admissions drops from 6% to 1.5%.If the death rate is so much lower amongst hospital admissions, it must be also be lower amongst the general population. I've seen some poor isolated data hinting at only a 0.1-0.2% mortality rate now (mild to average flu) but no concrete numbers. This is more promising - but is the virus weakening, treatment getting better or are more young people getting it with all the street and beach parties?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8462623/Are-doctors-better-treating-Covid-19-Uks-death-rate-FALLEN-quarter-peak-level.html

 

That's been the case everywhere.

I get that because areas haven't all had it that there is scope for a rise as and when they do but it simply isn't hitting places twice.

 

They said the same about Malham and the boozy VE day parties. Nothing happened. Rammed seaside towns at the end of May with lack of spacing? Nothing happened. York riverside parties? Nothing happened. Another two weeks of bigger poorly-spaced seaside gatherings and still nothing has happened. There's been illegal raves and car meets. Nothing happened. I doubt we'll see any flare-ups from outdoor activities or we would have seen it happen already.

 

Lets hope your correct you seem to be well up on the present situation.

 

What are the government trying to achieve though? Boris the worst leader ever came out yesterday and said you might be young and the virus more than likely won't effect you but you can still carry it and it will effect the older people(over 70's). That isn't going to stop people like me who is young and anyone under 50 going about their business, doing what they want.

You'll see next week when the pubs open that people will be drinking in numbers not caring.

When the government decided to open pubs (because Boris is a people pleaser) instead of opening gyms and swimming pools which improves people's health and drinking doesn't that was another sign the government doesn't care now about this virus.

When Leeds get promoted then Leeds will be packed. Make no mistake about that..

If the government are looking for the virus not to be in England then it's not going to happen. It will be around until a vaccine is found. So, we all need to learn to live with it.

 

We need to get every back in offices now though. The government needs to send out that message to see where we really are at with this virus.

 

Sadly I think there are one or two signs that the slowdown of the virus is stalling. I would be looking closely at the figures this week and wouldn’t be afraid to rein back on some of the changes coming next weekend

 

You need to get it in to your head that everything is about the economy now. The government will make sound bites but they won't do anything.

In fact it seems that they will be droppping the 14 day quarantine for holidays and people will be able to travel into the country as they please.

It's done..Beaches open, pubs will be open, holidays....It's over!!!

 

Thoroughly agree.

 

Economics were always going to take over can't keep paying people to stay at home forever. People will just have to get on with it, should have done that all along, in stead of a pointless half hearted lock down.

 

I disagree, lock down should have come sooner and it wouldn't have needed to be so restrictive. Stopping everything was a mistake, but closing schools and non essential businesses was the way forward.

You would think we will have cast iron plan for the next virus, which will happen sooner or later.

Limit the spread, limit the economic damage.

We got it ALL wrong, and continue to do so with a nonsensical half open-half closed farce.

 

Remember back in the run up to the lockdown people were asked voluntarily to be careful do you remember the scenes that weekend. The lockdown was a necessity

 

Don't always agree with you Fordy,but you could be right this time.

 

Unfortunatly the lock down measures were advisory, the majority acknowledged that and stuck by them unfortunatly many didnt.
I agree there had to come a point where the economy became number 1 priority @Aleman is putting some very interesting information out and if people return to normality as much possible we can control the virus, with volunteers being guinea pigs for this new developed vaccine we can only hope it is the answer and is available sooner rather than later.

 

Several of the US states being hit in wave 1b look like they might be starting to show the same topping pattern as the previously hard hit states in wave 1a as deaths approach very roughly the 100-200/million level (Texas 83/Florida 158/California 149). Although daily numbers of infections in wave 1b states are still rising, the rate of rise is decelerating. In wave 1a, this was usually quickly followed a few days later by the highest daily number of daily infections after which new cases started the long drift downwards seen first in Sweden and the many places hit hard in wave 1a that didn't lock down or locked down after missing the peak. They are now seeing 1b showing the same pattern - though perhaps a little more weakly due to slight herd immunity or a weaker virus or social spacing, masks, etc. Meanwhile those hit hard in wave 1a, with deaths above 300/million, are showing little or no increase in daily cases and deaths and often a continued fall. With social spacing and mask usage falling away in areas hit hard in March and April, this could be down to changes in the virus but is far more likely to just be herd immunity. To see such strong herd immunity at this time suggests either far more have had it than even antibody testing is indicating or there was a large degree of natural immunity already out there in much of the population before the virus hit for some reason.


Basically, the last couple of days' new case figures in US states suggest that these R numbers in the USA have actually been nearer the bottom of their error range, which is similar to what we found in the UK in recent weeks. We were told at 0.6-0.9 and 0.7-1.0 that we were close to one yet actually saw cases fall away rapidly, suggesting we were right at the bottom.

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