December: Things Could Look Better Before The Window

You’ll have to tell me Dave what he actually did wrong after getting rid of Rahic .He brought in Rhodes to sort out the mess, he lets Sparks and Hughes run the club with no interference, he refused to sell to Beavis and Butthead who would have killed the club. I know you blame him for lack of atmosphere which was bizarre to say the least now you blame him for the home form which is even more laughable. Was Rhodes responsible for the crap home form under Todd ? If Hughes ever says He’d love to play 4-3-3 but Rupp won’t let him or the only thing stopping him playing 2 up front is Rupp giving orders from his bunker in Germany then you can hold Rupp responsible.

 

Whoa…..the data that is the most insightful here - xG - should be setting alarm bells ringing.

xGF is currently 15th best in the division overall
xGF at home is 15th best in the division
xGA is 13th best in the division

xGA is 12th best in the division overall
xGA is 20th best in division
xGA is 6th best in the division

…….so out of that only our defensive performance away from home looks anything like that of a promotion winning team.

we don’t look anything like as robust at home, and both home and away we don’t create enough decent chances to think our current away form will be sustained, or that our home form will pick up.

this clearly points to a system which could collapse at any point.

there are some sides who bely xG - Parky’s side used to be low scoring but were tight as a crabs bottom at home……and Hughes’ City are not.

I’m worried because the stats reinforce the frustrations we see with our own eyes. 4-2-3-1 might work for Brazil when you have goals from your three but ours don’t score. We have two crabs in defensive midfield who slow play down and if Cook, who scores the overwhelming majority of our goals, gets injured, we are stuffed.

Maybe Hughes should take a leaf out of Southgate’s book and move to 4-3-3. At least it might give us a bit more drive from midfield.

 

https://footystats.org/england/efl-league-two/xg

the top six for xGF overall are

1st Stevenage
2nd Stockport
3rd Swindon
4th Orient
5th Mansfield
6th Grimsby
7th Barrow

top six for xGA (reverse the stats as the teams giving away most chances are listed first)

1st Orient
2nd Mansfield
3rd Stevenage
4th Stockport
5th Tranmere
6th Barrow
7th Sutton

…….Stevenage and Barrow are in the top seven on merit.

We are winging it!

 

Not every team can be replicated obviously. But there is a reason most football clubs employ sports analysts now and use xG and similar to influence their transfer business. Similarly, there is a reason why shrewd gamblers a lot richer than most have pumped millions into working with such data, which drives betting markets.

come the end of the season, teams winging it get found out. There might be odd exceptions, but on balance the XG should be telling Sparky that bad times are around the corner.

We need Gillead out of that midfield. We need a front-foot approach at home. We need more goals from midfield and we need more support for Cook.

Most fans can see all that without needing xG stats to back up their views, but when the numbers are reinforcing those views, our performance analyst (do we even have one) should be knocking on Sparks’ door, looking to reinforce in January. Present it to Stefan and get a new box to box midfielder signed off!

 

In answer to your first sentence... He stayed on at our club. But then Rahic and December 2018 should not have needed to happen. An astute businessman shouldn't be taken in, even when motive is simply to make money. From December 18 to Hughes, we have gone through 6 managers(plus caretaker) so the picture is more defined...

From Todd to Hughes...you don't have to answer publicly but Rupp as the money man from summer 16 has regressed this club.

For the record, I never suggested Rupp was to blame for the atmosphere but used factual data to compare our home record under his 'ownership' in relation to the ongoing discussion. The truth and data backs it, under Rupp we have 'questionable' home form. I have not looked at our away form under Rupp but at the top of my head, I fear the data will not be obliging....

Captain, as a fellow City man, I'm not looking for conflict with yourself. We both want the best for our club. It's my viewpoint, wrong or right.....

I have never wished any ill on the man, nor his people but Christ, I wish the stain of Rupp would feck off.

 

Over a season all teams have a lean spell, city are having theirs now, and are still in the mix. Orient, Northampton and other teams around us will have theirs at some point, and that COULD change the look of the table dramatically.

 

Orient will have to have a disastrous run to not go up now.

 

I shall agree to disagree Dave,as you say we both want the best for our club.

 

Agree. But a couple of defeats and draws and thats 10 points dropped.just trying to look on the bright side

 

I reckon we should easily get 11 points from those four games

 

I just worry about our lack of goals from the rest of the team apart from Cook who we rely too much on to score. I predict a draw at Gillingham a home win against Rochdale, a narrow defeat at Carlisle with Patrick and Gibson giving us a load of stick. A rare win against Harrogate at home and a dull goalless draw against Salford. A total of 8 points from the five games.

 

How can you get eleven points from four games?.

 

Aaaah.....you fell for it then...