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Brexit

Discussion in 'General Chat' started by Park bantam, Jun 14, 2018.

  1. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Important Player
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    I've certainly accepted it. It's going to happen. But as for moving on, that's a different matter. We've had to listen to Brexiteers whining about the EU and blaming it for all sorts of nonsense for decades. So the idea that Remainers (ie half the country) should now just shut up and learn to like it is laughable. Why should we? The economic consequences of Brexit will be with us for a very long time. I fully expect it to be disastrous for us and I'll have no hesitation in saying I told you so when it is.

    I just thought it was funny that Trevor was proposing we deprive ourselves of access to all our favourite cars in order to punish the EU for not giving us a great deal to reward us for ditching them. The phrase cutting off our nose to spite our face came to mind.
     
  2. Dennis

    Dennis Captain
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    Brexit will change things. Not on low end manufacturing but on higher end manufacturing and articularly on what's far more important to us, the selling of services to the rest of the world.

    We have certainly off-shored much of our low end manufacturing to China et al over many years and we are now very dependent on these countries for many of our basic manufactured items especially clothing and other low value things. But we are still an important presence in medium to high end manufacturing particularly in pharma, vehicles, defence and aerospace. And certainly in vehicles and aerospace, we are part of a very complex supply and manufacturing chain. To take a typical example, there are many plants in many countries working together under JIT programmes to produce a car or a van. Engines produced at one plant, gearboxes at another, electrical systems at a different and all assembled at yet another. The same applies to aerospece albeit with fewer players. And Brexit will add time, delays and compexity to these processes without a free trade deal with the EU whose members are our partners in these things. Delays to JIT manufacturing will soon disadvantage the UK and jeopardise our role in the manufacturing processes. It's quite wrong to say that Brexit, or rather not having a trade deal with the EU, won't affect these things

    Which takes me on to the most important issue around a no deal Brexit. Manufacturing in all its forms is now less than 20% of our economy. Our economy is now very much a services based economy selling our wide range of services - financial, engineering, business, professional sevices, marketing etc etc - to the EU and the rest of the world. Services represent about 60% of our exports to the world. They are so important to the wealth of our country. Without a free trade deal with the EU on these services, and they are our biggest export sector with the EU, we'll have to rely on WTO rules. And that will also apply to selling our services to most of the rest of the world. And the WTO rules have no provision in them for exporting services. It's just unknown territory. WTO is not designed to be used to such a large extent by modern economies which is why every advanced economy in the world prefers to trade with its local economic bloc rather than rely on the WTO. Nobody knows whether our expertise and standards will continue to be recognised by the EU or anybody else for that matter. For example, 'passporting', which is the arrangement where the UK's financial standards are fully recognised by the EU ( we wrote the rules so of course they are!) and allows 'us' to sell our financial services, banking services, asset management services etc throughout the EU without hindrance disappears without a trade deal. And there is nothing even similar to that in WTO rules. Nobody knows how continuing to rely on the export of our services will work in the future when there aren't any rules. Others, including our major competitors in these areas can simply say No or Non or Nein or America First when we try and export our services to their countries. And we have little to stop them doing that if we finish up with a no deal with the EU. The WTO rules provide absolutely no protection to us in the services sectors where we get most of our exports earnings these days.

    And all of this is just around the corner at the moment.
     
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  3. Offside

    Offside Impact Sub

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    I work for an American company , 4th largest in America not sure world wide , they dont rate the EU 1 iota , it will have no impact whatsoever on future trade . The isea that the EU is the B all and end all of trade in this country is bull shit , the original concept of the EEC was in the main great , the fact it's morphed into it's current form is unacceptable , the EU produce nothing , the EU is basically a very expensive closed shop . Blair Brown Major and the rest surrendered vast swathes of this country with no mandate they promised votes on any " Major issues " they lied , 1st vote we had we voted to leave , the EU refuse to believe and have done everything in it's power to stop it and failed ,
     
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  4. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Important Player
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    American companies hate the EU, because it's big enough to stand up to them, and they aren't used to that. That's why we have cheap drug prices and they don't. Until this government sells us down the river to the USA as they are doing with our agriculture.

    The idea that import and export tariffs between us and our overwhelmingly largest trade market will have no impact is laughable.
     
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  5. Offside

    Offside Impact Sub

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    It works both ways , i'm sure the French wine growers and Car manufacturers and German car manufacturers will fight against tarriffs put on thier products to be sold in the UK . I have a Korean car , superb and cheaper than a French or German car of similar high spec .
     
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  6. trevor

    trevor Squad Player
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    On financial services such as financing and insurance the world uses the UK as it uses contracts subject to English law which the world of business use as a standard and will continue to do so, Most of this business has and will be now done online and as such it will be difficult for the EU to stop it,The banks, Insurance and finance houses already know this which is why there is no public fuss or complaints from them, The remainers use it as a fear item but is a red herring, The paper world in these industries has moved on
     
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  7. Dennis

    Dennis Captain
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    Don't be silly! Some of our clients who are London based subsidiaries of major global banks etc already have their plans in place to transfer some operations to other financial centres in the EU so that EU clients can continue to be serviced. In the real world of financial sevices which it appears you have little knowledge of, banking and other licences have to be held to operate in the EU (or indeed most other countries) and those licences cannot be held by businesses who are not present in the EU without a trade deal in place to enable this. That's the reason why the big American, Japanese, Swiss, Canadian etc banks currently all have a presence in London because a licence from our own FSA/BoE is recognised in the EU which allows these businesses to operate there. That won't be the case after the transition period and we don't negotiate a trade deal with the EU. No trade deal, no licence. No licence, no trade!
     
  8. trevor

    trevor Squad Player
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    The world is bigger than the EU and world trade from outside the EU is huge and will continue, Business within the EU under no no deal will be re - routed to and from other world centres to the Uk to enable trade, Money always talks loudest
     
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  9. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    I believe the end of July is the deadline to see if there can be a deal negotiated by the end of the year as was agreed.
    The EU look more and more like a basket case every time your read a comment from leaders of other countries, Hungary, Spain, Italy etc where as Macron, Merkel are trying to make out all is good, we won't be controlled by the by the EU negotiators, Barnier keeps on about the "political declaration" it is and never was a legally binding document but was to set the direction of the future relationship negotiations.
    When May's team were negotiating most leavers knew she wanted a deal that would help pull the Tory party together as well as deliver a type of brexit that many weren't happy with, being tied to the customs union being a none negotiable deal but she was happy to put that as part of her deal, we've moved on with a new team of negotiators who see that being a member of the EU is not the be all and end all some on here try to convince us it is,
     
  10. Offside

    Offside Impact Sub

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    End of June is the cut off point @Bronco@Bronco , this is why the left and MSM are shit stiring , they started with the pandemic , then kept asking about an extension , then Cummings now the BLM protests , all seems to be some part of a master plan .
     
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  11. Offside

    Offside Impact Sub

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    The UK have formally announced today they will not be seeking an extension of the transition period . Michael Gove announced to the EU negotiators , the moment for any extension as now passed . On the 1st of January 2021 we will regain our Political and economic independence . Marcos Sefcovic confirmed this and said he hoped a formal deal could be in place , but are preparing for a no deal scenario .
     
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  12. YungNath

    YungNath Impact Sub

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    Where will all this new magical trade come from? surely if it was that profitable we'd be trading with all these countries of plenty already?
     
  13. trevor

    trevor Squad Player
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    It is not new it is there already, We already trade with most of the world already, If you do not understand the subject best not to post,
     
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  14. YungNath

    YungNath Impact Sub

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    I think thats a ridiculous comment given you just tried to propose putting a quota on european car imports
     
  15. trevor

    trevor Squad Player
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    First off, My posts if you trouble to read the thread and replies were about financial services and pass porting to the EU and options if we fail to get agreement in re routing financial trade,
    Second, There could well be quotas of goods if we end up on WTO terms or similar under a no deal and part of that is reciprocal quotas between countries to protect vital industries from swamping, It is quite relevant to point out an option we have on trade talks as only a fool would not consider all the options available, Its what grown ups do,.
    As I said if you do not understand the subject of world trade then best say nothing
     
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  16. YungNath

    YungNath Impact Sub

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    I worked for VW group for two and a half years dealing with the supply chain, I assure you Trev I probably know a damn sight more on the matter than you would.

    I did read the thread and I think Dennis is talking a lot more sense than yourself actually. You're just talking about industries you don't seem to have any knowledge or experience in like you're an expert.
     
  17. BradfordBanter

    BradfordBanter Squad Player

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    What was your role at VW?
     
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  18. YungNath

    YungNath Impact Sub

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    Mobility Advisor and later ended up dealing with insurance claims for audi UKs fleet of company cars. Weird job title but basically if you broke down with a warrantable fault, I worked with the dealership carrying out the repairs and the parts teams to co-ordinate any parts that were needed, arranging a replacement vehicle and/or import of a new vehicle if it was sufficiently bad. Worked across all 5 brands in the group until I started doing the insurance thing which was just for Audi. understanding the JIT system and working within it was a very important aspect of the job.

    This was also during the emissions scandal which popped off whilst I was there, was a very interesting time to work for VW to say the least. Got loads of overtime from that haha
     
  19. trevor

    trevor Squad Player
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    Well you think @Dennis@Dennis is correct on financial services that they will have to stop and the City move abroad to trade if we have a no deal, I believe they will mostly carry on because money always finds a way to trade, we will see what happens but you will be wrong, Trade always finds a way in the end, The world of finance worldwide uses London and English law by choice and that will not change
     
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  20. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Important Player
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    Firstly, the EU is overwhelmingly our biggest export and import market. 'Eighty-five per cent of all our fresh vegetables and fruit and two thirds of our bacon, bangers and ham arrive in 10,000 lorries each day from the continent. Lidl alone has 1,300 trucks bringing food each day.' (Dennis McShane).
    It's extreme fantasy to believe that we can just switch that trade instantly to the rest of the world. Our economy and our basic ability to feed our population will continue to be highly dependent on trade with the EU, and that is not going to change, however much you might wish it to. So the imposition of tarffs both ways, in the event of a no deal Brexit, will have a disastrous effect on our economy and on the price of food.

    Secondly, even if we could, it's ecological madness to switch large amounts of our trade away from our near neighbours to far away lands. We should be trading as locally as possible, not moving even bigger mountains of goods halfway round the world by plane and boat, massively adding to the global warming issue.
     

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