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Brexit

Discussion in 'General Chat' started by Park bantam, Jun 14, 2018.

  1. Stafford Bantam

    Stafford Bantam Captain
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    Anything but that Theresa May deal, which would have been a mess for this country and wouldn't have been welcomed by remainers, leavers and inbetweeners alike.

    I think that a limited or no deal is the way to go, not because no deal is good for us, but because I think it's the only way we'll get the EU to negotiate a fair deal with us (probably afterwards).

    I also worry that Boris may panic in the last few days, leading up to the deadline, and agree a bad deal. Please Boris don't blink first.
     
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  2. Dennis

    Dennis Captain
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    Just remind me again, why would a 'no deal' (or rather having to revert solely to WTO rules or as some like to use the euphemism 'Australia' rules) be advantageous to the UK?

    Just to be clear, we are very much a services led economy. Our exports to the world comprise nearly 60% in services and there are no provisions within the WTO rules dealing with services between trading partners. For us to trade in our biggest export in the future will require us to negotiate a whole series of FTAs with other countries (including the EU) in order to encompass services. And that's before our manufacturers particularly in the car sector who export much of their production elsewhere are then hit with a 10% surcharge on vehicle exports.
     
  3. Stafford Bantam

    Stafford Bantam Captain
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    It wouldn't but, in the short term, it may be the only way we can get to where 'we' want to be.
     
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  4. Dennis

    Dennis Captain
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    I don't fully understand that. It's the bit about getting to 'where we want to be' which isn't clear to me.

    Do you mean we should come away from the negotiations in December without a deal with the EU; revert to WTO rules for all trade with the EU and non-EU countries; and then try to negotiate a series of bilaeral free trade deals with the non-EU countries?

    Or do you mean that saying we want a 'no deal' with the EU is simply a negotiating ploy to get the EU to give more to us than they have done alrready?
     
  5. Stafford Bantam

    Stafford Bantam Captain
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    It's just that I think that the EU will not give us anything like the deal we want, because they expect us to cave in and sign up to a poor deal (for us). I think if we hold our nerve, then the EU will compromise and we can get a fair deal. However, I fully accept that that compromise deal may come on or just after the deadline meaning, for a short while at least, we could be on WTO rules.

    Whilst I think the EU is a bureaucratic mess, I was never convinced that leaving the EU was worth all the hassle. However, once the decision (vote) was made, I am of the firm belief we should get on with it and we have dithered and stretched this out for far too long.

    One way or another, the deals will come.
     
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  6. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Important Player
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    But what exactly do you mean by a 'fair deal'?

    From what I've seen, most Brexit supporters seem to want the EU to give us easy access to their internal market without tariffs, customs checks, compliance with their standards, their system of legal adjudication or the free movement of labour that is an intrinsic part of their market. And they expect us to get these concessions without being a member of the club or paying our subs.

    That's not a fair deal, it's wanting to have our cake and eat it. There's no way the EU will give us that and they'd be absolutely bonkers to do so.

    Brexiteers talk about the EU being intransigent but so are we. We want all the benefits of membership alongside the freedom to do as we please. That's not going to happen. What concessions have we made? None, as far as I can see.
     
  7. Stafford Bantam

    Stafford Bantam Captain
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    Eventually, a number of compromises will have to be made on both sides. It will happen.
     
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  8. How

    How Knows Football
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    Have we got a deal or not? Or was it a good way to win an election?
     
  9. trevor

    trevor Squad Player
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    One deal we could impose is equality on car import/export, We could impose a limit on EU imports of cars to the amount we export to them, We sell 800.000 to the EU and they sell us 2.3 million to the UK market, The loss of a market of 1.5 ,million cars would hit the EU and Germany Very hard where it matters,
     
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  10. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Important Player
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    Yeah, that will be popular with millions of Britons who want a new BMW, Audi, Skoda, Seat, Volvo, Fiat, Renault, Citroen etc etc and can't get one.
    The reason we import so many cars is because we no longer have a car industry to speak of. Not everyone wants to drive a Nissan , even assuming they're still here once the tariffs kick in.
     
  11. trevor

    trevor Squad Player
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    Plenty here to choose from,
    Made in Britain
    • MINI – MINI, MINI Clubman and MINI Countryman, in Cowley, Oxford
    • Honda – Civic and CR-V in Swindon
    • Toyota – Auris, Auris hybrid and Avensis in Burnaston, Derbyshire
    • Nissan – Juke, Qashqai, Note and Leaf and Infiniti Q30 in Sunderland, Tyne and Wear
    • Lotus – Elise, Evora and Exige in Norfolk
    • Aston Martin – DB9, Vantage, Rapide, Vanquish, and DB11 in Gaydon, Warwickshire
    • Bentley Motors – Continental, Flying Spur and Mulsanne in Crewe, Cheshire
    • Rolls Royce – Ghost and Wraith in Goodwood, West Sussex
    • Jaguar – F-Pace and XE in Solihull, and F-type, XJ, XF and XE in Castle Bromwich, Birmingham
    • Land Rover – Discovery Sport and Range Rover Evoque in Halewood, Merseyside, and Range Rover, Range Rover Sport and Land Rover Defender in Solihull, West Midlands
    • Vauxhall – Astra at Ellesmere Port and Vivaro van in Luton
    Maybe more will move here to keep market share,
     
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  12. Get Rid Of It

    Get Rid Of It Squad Player
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    Honda in Swindon is closing down, FYI.

    Plus, Lotus/Aston Martin/Bentley Motors/Rolls Royce/Jaguar and Morgan are a wee bit out of my price range.
     
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  13. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    Yes I thought @trevor@trevor reply was more appropriate to @Fordy117@Fordy117 ;).
     
  14. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Important Player
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    Funnily enough, that list doesn't look much like the majority of cars I see on our streets. But bring it on, I say. If anything is likely to cause a Brexit backlash, your idea to create endemic shortages of all the nation's most popular cars is likely to be pretty high on the list.
     
  15. Dennis

    Dennis Captain
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    You missed McLaren from your list of 'British' manufacturers! ;)

    ps According to PSA, the Astra is only guaranteed a future at Ellesmere Port until 2021. After that, its future depends on there being a trade agreement between the UK and EU for cars and vans. PSA already has an Astra plant in Poland and is now building another one in Germany.

    pps Toyota have already said that if there is a no-deal and the UK reverts to WTO rules and has to impose a 10% tariff, it would put its UK manufacturing plants in doubt. That's a very similar message given by Nissan's head of global operations who described its Sunderland plant as 'unsustainable' if the UK adopts WTO rules.

    Given the uncertainty, I think I'll be looking to buy a British Land Rover Discovery as my next car .. now built in Slovenia!
     
  16. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Regular Starter
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    Who in their right mind would build a car plant in the UK now regardless of Brexit? Better off in Poland whose infrastructure is growing all the time and labour rates are dirt cheap.
     
  17. Dennis

    Dennis Captain
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    Trevor appears to suggest they will. Maybe British Leyland will arise from the ashes like a phoenix!
     
  18. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Regular Starter
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    This country served its purpose for the wealthy industrialist starting around 200 years ago with the industrial revolution, which we were leaders of. Times have changed and most of this countries industrial might has been in decline from after the first world. Brexit or no brexit isn't going to change that. Globalisation has led big business to set up in untapped countries where primarily labour is cheap and plenty and where building new infrastructure is not dependant on building round 200 years of old roads, railways and airports. Its why Trump can never gain on his promise to take industry back to the US, its quite clearly never gonna be cost effective to his big business mates. The reason why his MAGA hats, t shirts and hoodies were made in the far east.
     
  19. trevor

    trevor Squad Player
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    The average Tariff on a no deal outcome will be very low on most goods to and from the EU, The Tarrif on cars is 10% but as the EU sell us 1.2 million more cars than we do to them then a deal will be done at least on cars, The pressure on the EU by Hyundai, Kia and Suzuki who supply the UK from Hungary along with the German and French and Italian manufacturers will grow and encourage the EU negotiators to finalise a deal
     
    #2519 trevor, Jun 9, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2020
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  20. Offside

    Offside Impact Sub

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    Perhaps The Ford Transit factory at Eastleigh nr southampton would be a better example , moved to TURKEY funded with an EU grant . The Transit was / is by far the UKs most popular van . We've left except it move on .
     

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