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Exam results

Discussion in 'General Chat' started by Aaron Baker, Aug 13, 2020.

  1. Storck

    Storck Regular Starter

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    no they aren’t. They are more meaningful as the algorithm has been removed so we are back to the predicted much higher grades
     
  2. Storck

    Storck Regular Starter

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    I would love you to explain that fully. The figures I spoke about were both post algorithm and pre. The post bit was that overall grades had increased even with the algorithm. The second part is that around 40% of grades were reduced by the algorithm, so getting rid of it means the grades revert to the higher level which then will increase the overall increase
     
  3. ConnecticutBantam

    ConnecticutBantam Impact Sub
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    There is no fair way of doing it. It's like when universities hand out unconditional offers - they're based on AS results and final predicted grades. As it goes my predicted grades ended up worse than what I finished with. At the time your A-levels are such an important factor in your next step. I really do feel sorry for school leavers this year. What I would say to anyone that didn't get into their first choice uni... As long as your back up is similar there's nothing to worry about. For most subjects do employers really see a difference between Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, Birmingham etc etc?
     
  4. Keefly Bantam

    Keefly Bantam Important Player
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    Well I will see at first hand how this is really panning out when my son gets his teacher assessed results on Thursday and then compare them with the Governments effort to be released a week on Thursday. Don't ask as I have no idea why they cant be given at the same time.
    We have a pretty fair idea what grades he should get as we looked at his mocks and previous meetings with teachers and ongoing marking figures. We were given realistic targets for him and up until lockdown he seemed to be on track.

    I have to say listening in on conversations around on the last parents evening I did hear teachers giving parents an honest appraisal of their child. I don't expect teachers to give higher grades to less talented pupils as that does no one any good in the short or long term.
    I will say that in 1 subject he is expecting an 8 or a 9-that's what he did in his mocks and in continual assessment. Let's see what he is actually given by the teacher and government. That is my litmus test on this.
     
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  5. YungNath

    YungNath Impact Sub

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    when would they be able to retake a levels alongside doing a degree, because the workload for a levels is higher than degree level. when would they be able to find the time to study properly to retake said exams, given they'll be studying for a degree and subsequently after that in the world of work. would you as an employer sign your employee for time off to study to get a qualification they already have because the govt decided it was null and void? you can't just expect them to rock up and do it all again with no prep, or you're just setting them up to fail which is what i thought we wanted to avoid.
     
  6. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Regular Starter
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    My lad finds out tomorrow regarding his GCSEs. He's fairly optimistic as he put a fair amount of time into his mocks and coursework but i'm nt holding my breath. Its clear a system has been deliberately implemented to benefit the marks of kids from a more privileged background but that doesn't surprise me from this government. On a purely shits and giggles moment though it would have been nice to wipe the smiles of the faces of some of these pretentious young twats that you see every year opening their results on breakfast TV, 'Lets have a word with Tarquin Chomley Warner who has been predicted 15 A******* grades, what has Daddys ill gotten fortunes got you, you over privileged w@nker'.
     
  7. SimonW

    SimonW Administrator
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    I'm assuming you went to Uni. You do remember your first semester right, hey the first year tbh. It's not exactly that intensive. I was in lectures maybe 3 or 4 hours a day with 1 day off completely for much of that first year, the hardest thing about it tbh was getting used to the day I had a 2 hour lecture at 9am and then not having another lecture until 7pm. Getting used to doing classes after 4pm was tough in itself but balancing that wasteland between the two lectures so you were in the right mindset for the later one was tough.

    It's not like they need classroom time as long as its done within the first semester of uni (which if Uni's are open there is no reason why exams can't be taken, they can use the uni's examination spaces). The biggest issue is when the exams are taken, if its during the week it needs some flexibility from both the unis and exam boards as either the uni needs to shift lectures or every exam is going to need multiple different exams of the same level so that you can book a time to take it around your lectures. Although they could just do them on Weekends

    And its not like they would have to take it. In general your A-levels are less important when you have a degree so it would be upto each student. Do you want formal A-level grades or have a need for them OR is do you trust in your ability to get your degree and that that will be more important in later life
     
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  8. SimonW

    SimonW Administrator
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    It's not though. The reason it seems like the rich were impacted less is mentality of the teachers. You see more aspirational predictions at State School as they are trying to drive people who have no expectations of doing further or higher educational on by getting them provisional places at colleges and uni's. If your family is rich enough to send you to Public School you have most likely grown up with the expectation you will goto uni and a good one at that. That means they have a different mindset, being aspirational with them isn't really going to motivate them. You are more likely to hence get slightly pessimistic predictions to use them as a stick. That means that actually Public Schools predictions are closer to reality so in this setup they see less adjusting down as its more inline with what they statistically would achieve if they had the exams


    I would also hazard a guess just from living in a town that had two prestigious public schools and seeing some examples (mainly from afar but I do know someone who went to to the girls school so I have heard first hand stories) of how their teachers were with them that State School teachers are perhaps more likely to be emotionally invested in their students than the stand off Public school ones which then will impact predictions. Its easier to be realistic if you are detached than if there is an emotional attachment
     
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  9. Keefly Bantam

    Keefly Bantam Important Player
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    So if my son gets a grade 7 at maths and so does hooray henry at Bradford Grammer -hooray has worked harder to get it? Is that what you are trying to say. Cos that's bollocks.
     
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  10. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    That isn't close to what he said. The post was about the mentality of teachers - using aspirational grading to motivate vs using realistic/pessimistic grades and it made complete sense.

    Nothing to do with the work ethic of the individual students.
     
  11. Tolly856

    Tolly856 Squad Player

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    Students will be given 2 grades- their aspiring target grade and the one they are currently working at. The latter has got nothing to do with teacher bias or any of that sort as it is taken from previous assessments such as exams and coursework.

    Generally, students have a pretty good idea as to where they are currently at in comparison to where they need to be.
     
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  12. SimonW

    SimonW Administrator
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    Where are you getting they will be getting an aspiring target and one that they are currently working at? What they are actually getting is their 'predicted' grade which is full of 'bias' despite the predicted grade they are using being the one after the mock exams so in theory has been adjusted and the adjusted grade that tries to take account of that. They then get to choose which ever is highest.

    If the grades were unbiased we wouldn't be seeing an increase that is almost ten times the normal year on year increase. Even with the adjustments its a bigger increase than we have seen year on year for atleast the last decade.
     
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  13. Tolly856

    Tolly856 Squad Player

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    That’s what it was like when I was at school. We’d get a current grade and an aspiring grade. Asked my younger brother who’d finished doing his GCSE’s just a few years ago and it was exactly the same for him too.

    Not sure if it differs between primary and secondary school but I’d be interested to hear your thoughts @Hoochy-Min@Hoochy-Min @Hulmebantam@Hulmebantam . Do your students know what their current attainment grade is or do you hide it from them? I’m assuming you at the very least make track of their progress and log it somewhere, or do you only deal with predicted grades “full of bias” as our friend Simon W is suggesting?
     
    #93 Tolly856, Aug 19, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2020
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  14. SimonW

    SimonW Administrator
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    Where did I say anything about hard work? If you think your kid working hard has anything to do with how well they do in comparison to others then you are massively deluded. You can have the most dedicated kid in the world who spends 5 hours a night revising and doing independent study and they will still most likely be beaten by someone who doesn't try in class, would rather be down the park either playing football or drinking etc etc. Working hard might edge you over to the next grade but it absolutely does not guarantee you do better than those who try less hard.

    If teachers could be trusted to get the predictions right we wouldn't have standardised testing still due to the negatives it brings. But they can't, Uni's have also been complaining for years about the fact they have to make decisions on the inaccurate teachers predictions. Really we shouldn't be relying on just one exam, strangely when I was doing A-Levels certain subjects were actual modular, for example in Business Studies we did an exam after each module but in Computer Science and Maths and the AS Accounting I did in the second year it was just a single exam. With the move to the A2 system it seemed that even more they were going that way but I believe its pretty much been reverted back to a single exam and even in many cases not even having a coursework element. If exams were being taken after every module it would be much easier in situations like this for teachers to give a fair mark as they would already have a fair chunk of their final mark in the bag and you could extrapolate from that.
     
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  15. SimonW

    SimonW Administrator
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    The thing is though the prediction that will go down officially won't be the 'this is what you are working at' grade, its the 'this is what we think you can do' grade. If it was the you are working at grade then it wouldn't only have a 16% accuracy rate or at the very least if it was still 16% it would be 78% achieved 1 or more grades better than the prediction not 78% performing 1 or more grades worse than the prediction. Again what you are talking about is teachers attempts to motivate students, especially students who don't have an expectation of carrying their education on so need that push to better their chances in life
     
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  16. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    If that's the case why are predicted grades (which are now being taken as gospel) only correct 16% of the time in a usual year?

    I just can't get that bit at all.
     
  17. Keefly Bantam

    Keefly Bantam Important Player
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    A wrong prediction includes the kid getting a higher mark than predicted.
    So it will even itself out as it always does.
     
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  18. SimonW

    SimonW Administrator
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    Only 10% get a grade or more higher than they were predicted. 78% get a grade or more lower. So no it doesn't even out
     
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  19. Hulmebantam

    Hulmebantam Squad Player
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    In response to @Tolly856@Tolly856, in primary school we try to avoid putting pressure on the kids, as the SATs are an exercise in measuring the school not the individual.

    However, conversations are had with parents as to whether their children are performing below, at or above age expectations.

    With regard to the main debate here. I'll say this. I worked for five years in a University, including the management of admissions and clearing. Of course there is variability, but I don't remember huge differences between predicted grades and actual results.

    From a teacher's perspective, they need to have credibility with their bosses, peers and most importantly parents. That provides a significant incentive to provide predictions which are based on what they know about a student and what can be attained. They will have the conversations about capability, current attainment and what needs to be done.

    The major problem with the using algorithm approach is that it is taking a global view to predict an individual's outcomes. Exams do the other, they are based on an individual's endeavours in comparison to the global cohort.

    There is a serious lack of data points to use about an individual's historical performance as the basis to inform what they are likely to achieve. This is what a teacher does.

    The algorithms being used may use large data sets about performance in certain post codes, schools etc and use statistical analysis to produce a most likely outcome. However, this approach would never predict Leicester winning the league a few years ago, for example.

    My friend is a headmaster of a school in Norfolk. It was in special measures but he is now turning it round after a couple of years. Lots of his A level students were downgraded significantly. As he said, he has thirty years of experience and knows a good group of students and would not sign off on unrealistic expectations or grades.

    The right decision has been made to go back to expected grades. Not perfect, but way better than the alternative.
     
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  20. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    It doesn't though. Why not look at the facts before making such statements?

    upload_2020-8-19_13-28-14.png

    Only 8.5% improve.

    You're basically just as likely to lose 5 grades between predicted and actual as you are to improve by 1.

    So explain to me again how it evens out?
     
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