Where will it end... 12th September as it happens

The overall figure Nationaly has risen for the last 7 days this virus hasn’t gone

 

This virus hasn't gone anywhere.

 

Careful. Testing has been increasing, particularly in places where there have been flare-ups, so they might just be picking up a higher number even thought there might not be more cases out there. (This has been happening a lot in the USA where tests have been increasing but hit rates falling.) If you look here, you'll see UK test numbers have increased very roughly 15% in each if the last two weeks.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-covid-19-tests-per-day

Here you can see positive rates in tests have continued to fall, although more slowly



Look here and you will see hospital numbers and admissions continue to fall

http://covidtracker.uksouth.cloudapp.azure.com/

Put these all together, and it suggests the virus is still getting less common but more slowly, and we have seen some modest increases in new cases recently due to more testing, not more virus.

 

Virus eradicated in most places. There's not much to see until you zoom in. Shame they chose shades of blue. Claret and amber would have been nicer to look at.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

 

Yikes. Nearly half of all Yorkshire's 106 new cases were in Bradford on Tuesday.

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/health/locations-106-new-coronavirus-cases-18643529

If I've made no mistake, Bradford's Pillar 1+2 combined since available from 3rd of July is:
38 ,28,14,39,26,22,30,27, 21,29,36,38,33,32,27,27,33,35,50.

There does look to be some modest signs of spread from the original hot spot, but how much does increased testing account for?

 

Doing more tests and doing more of them in hotspots gives a misleading trend on the virus if you just look at new cases. This does not. The virus is still decreasing rapidly even though we are mostly unlocked. It's gone in most places and won't come back on this trend.</font>

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/903450/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_30_FINAL_UPDATED.pdf

"In week 29, the weekly admission rates for both hospitalisations and ICU/HDU COVID-19 admissions decreased. The hospitalisation rate was at 1.07 per 100,000 in week 29 compared to 1.28 per 100,000 in the previous week. The ICU/HDU rate was at 0.09 per 100,000 in week 29 compared to 0.13 per 100,000 in the previous week (Figure 23)."



That's only about 60 people entered ICUs last week. Most will survive so it suggests death rates in very low single figures per day soon.

Note how antibodies fade in Figure 36. This means every antibody study done will not fully represent infection levels. Those under 2 weeks from infection don't test positive and an increasing number after 3 or 4 weeks do not either. Wait a couple of months to do blood tests and you will probably seriously underrepresent the peak.

 

Premier League just announced a 12th September restart date so would expect the EFL to go with the same.

 

The EFL are a joke..PL get down to business. How long ago did div 2 finish and the PL new season has been announced before the EFL.

Anyway, yeah think it will be on the same weekend.

However, who is paying for testing?

 

Apparently testing will be scaled down massively to once a fortnight/once a month or scrapped altogether. Which does make sense considering grassroots football is returning with zero testing protocols.

 

EFL now confirmed the same date for the restart.

 

12th September for the start of the new season! Confirmed by the efl

 

Forest green and barrow away back end of the season please computer generator

 

Computer says no

 

Barrow away on Boxing Day if recent years are anything to go by

 

Recent years, like 1970 recent .

 

I was more thinking of Sunderland, Carlisle and another move in a westerly direction to the few clubs North of us

 

That's like looking to the future in Barrow

 

Improved again despite increased testing.

https://www.leeds-live.co.uk/location-breakdown-85-new-coronavirus-18652865

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/tabletConfig/tabletConfig_topic/tabletConfig_topic_news/tabletConfig_topic_news_Yorkshire/locations-103-new-coronavirus-cases-18659018

If I've made no mistake, Bradford's Pillar 1+2 combined since available from 3rd of July is:
38 ,28,14,39,26,22,30,27, 21,29,36,38,33,32,27,27,33,35,50,30,23.

 

Have they gone decimal yet?

 

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/health/location-breakdown-more-100-new-18663143


If I've made no mistake, Bradford's Pillar 1+2 combined since available from 3rd of July is:
38 ,28,14,39,26,22,30,27, 21,29,36,38,33,32,27,27,33,35,50,30,23,35.