Where will it end... 12th September as it happens

Many old men would love grey hair never mind a ponytail.

 

Many old men (me) would love some hair at all

 

Many old men would love to have a midget...Count yourself lucky you just have no hair.

I've plenty. Sell you some.

 

It's not just a vague theory, statisticians have hypothesised some other form of immunity for some time since the track of cases everywhere was not following the predicted path expected if everybody was vulnerable. It's been accelerating and peaking at lower rates than expected. It has been suggested that half the population might have natural immunity. They've been looking for an explanation - sometimes referred to as "dark matter" - and the Swedish T-cell study found it. Plus, I'm not forgetting this study which I linked to previously:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity

Both studies suggest solutions to the statisticians "dark matter" issue . It could be behavioural and government statistic-doctoring, too, but that would need some remarkable consistency across many countries so I think that is less likely. Responses across the globe have been anything but consistent. Do you think citizens of Arkansas' different regions would behave so differently that one region got a bad wave one and no wave two while the rest only got wave two? Would they behave so differently between neighbouring regions in the same state? I think not. I think herd immunity explains it better. I think it's far more likely that a coronavirus behaves like other coronaviruses and we have some inherent immunity in the population from previous similar cornaviruses. It might be wrong but it's not wishful thinking or a vague theory. There's two studies suggesting it and they solve a problem statisticians could not explain about virus behaviour.

 

This looks better news on a Bradford lockdown risk - infection rates fell 40% last week. However, they put Leicester into lockdown even though they fell slightly. I said previously Pillar 1 testing seemed to show Leicester hospitals had now slowed as much as many but still showed a slight fall. This just reinforces what I said. It seems harsh to push an entire city into lockdown after cases actually fell slightly. They actually admit in the weekly reports that Pillar 2 tests can jump around a bit as they can centre on different areas within a region from week to week. Anyway, hopefully this gives Bradford a breathing space.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53257835

 

Well, a hypothesis is very similar to a theory. There is no proof though and even the articles you link to don't prove or even suggest it, just ponder on whether it could be one of a multitude of different options.

I'm also remembering the the T-Cell study you referenced, the one that literally said "This doesn't necessarily get us any closer to herd immunity, though"

Yes, people in different parts of the location behave differently for a variety of socio-econimic reasons. Surely that isn't even a big leap of faith. People in York, Settle or Harrogate behave differently to those in Keighley, Manningham or Harehills. Why would Arkansas be any different to Yorkskire? That's much more likely than the virus behaving differently in different postcodes.

I have no wish to go round in circles citing different sources but there was a very recent peer-reviewed study which appeared in the Lancet and was reported on by Imperial Collage London. In terms of a source it couldn't be any more credible and unlike some of the previously cited articles it provides a cast iron conclusion.....

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/198238/declines-covid-19-cases-herd-immunity-says/

This specifically concludes "There is no evidence that declines in transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in some countries are the result of herd immunity" and "the decline in cases and deaths was a result of lockdowns, behavioural shifts, social distancing and other interventions"

If you think that the changes are due to herd immunity (which you have since April to be fair) then that's fine but the true science doesn't back it up and we probably shouldn't represent people throwing out a number of theories to explain things that don't understand such as the ones you referenced here - https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/declining-death-rate-from-covid-19-in-hospitals-in-england/ as anything approaching a true factual conclusion in light of the actual peer-reviewed experts who see the exact opposite.

 

We will find out in a couple of weeks. Because one thing is for sure the herd will be behaving badly on Saturday

 

R rate reported to be over 1 in London.

Not good news but not unexpected.

 

Here's a list of highest Tier 1+2 testing for the latest week:

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/10-parts-england-most-risk-18533388

1.Leicester 141.3
2. Bradford 45.8
3. Barnsley 35.1
4. Rochdale 35.0
5. Oldham 30.1
6. Kirklees 26.2
7. Rotherham 26.1
8. Sheffield 24.4
9. Bolton 23.5
10. Donacaster
11. Blackburn with Darwen 20.8
12. Knowsley 20.1
13. Peterborough 18.9
14. Bedford 18.1
15. Manchester 17.5
16. Leicestershire 17.3
17. Tameside 16.9
18. Luton 15.0
19. Calderdale 14.8
20. Stoke-on-Trent 14.1

You can see the numbers jump about a bit (below in figure 10 on page 7). Apart from Leicester, these problem areas all look to be declining gently over the weeks. Also, the map in figure 9 shows half of England has nearly wiped it out. Apart from the areas in the list above, everywhere else is pretty low now. Wakefield and York are low yet they were on a lockdown list just because they'd risen a bit the week before. They clearly bounce around a bit when they get low, as with London - why worry about London's R going above 1 if there is next to no virus left there? At such low levels. it is probably more a statistical quirk than a real increase.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/897199/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_report_-_week_27.pdf

 

Until everyone is allowed back in to offices and indoor places these figures are not fully correct as we are living at 50% normality.

The scientists have just said the virus is going to be with us for a very, very long time.

 

Found the next 5 in the YP since Leeds is in it. I'll list them all again in because it has the previous week's numbers in brackets. I wonder what Knowsley has been up to.

https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/health/coronavirus/leeds-has-one-highest-rates-new-coronavirus-cases-country-new-figures-show-2902473

1. Leicester 141.3 (140.2)
2. Bradford 45.8 (69.4)
3. Barnsley 35.1 (54.7)
4. Rochdale 35.0 (53.6)
5. Oldham 30.1 (38.6)
6. Kirklees 26.2 (30.3)
7. Rotherham 26.1 (33.6)
8. Sheffield 24.4 (20.6)
9. Bolton 23.5 (15.8)
10. Doncaster 21.3 (17.4)
11. Blackburn with Darwen 20.8 (32.9)
12. Knowsley 20.1 (6.0)
13. Peterborough 18.9 (27.9)
14. Bedford 18.1 (42.0)
15. Manchester 17.5 (21.6)
16. Leicestershire 17.3 (20.8)
17. Tameside 16.9 (33.3)
18. Luton 15.0 (26.6)
19. Calderdale 14.8 (12.4)
20. Stoke-on-Trent 14.1 (18.0)
21. Blackpool 13.6 (10.8)
22. Derby 12.8 (24.5)
23. Hammersmith & Fulham 12.4 (5.9)
24. Leeds 11.7 (19.8)
25. Cheshire East 11.3 (16.0)

 

Here's the full UK table for Tiers 1+2 at the bottom of link, with the previous week's numbers. They bounce all over the place so I'd take any individual week with a big pinch of salt. Merthyr Tidfil goes from 9.95 to top of the pile at 179.03. I presume that's the 2 Sisters food plant outbreak at work. Another big drop for England overall, though.

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

The food plant outbreaks seem to count against my suspicion of herd immunity but many food plants have large numbers of immigrants imported from lower infected countries. (Same for textile plants in Leicester?) The good news is no evidence of any of them spreading into the wider community yet. So why not? Are they completely self contained or is there some immunity in surrounding communities?

 

Wish our football league position was as good.

 

We're now getting Pillar 1+2 daily data presented together in local news reports so this is what they might lock locations down on. It's not new cases per week per 100k, though. It's just new cases per day. Based on Bradford's 45.8/100k for 22-28 June works out around 36 per day I think if the catchment is 550k (Tier 1 hospital catchment - same for Tier2?) so we want Bradford to remain under than and fall over time. There are a few regions around the UK now reporting zeroes.

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/local-news/locations-111-newly-confirmed-coronavirus-18543700

• Barnsley - was 1,868 now 1,876 - 9
• Bradford - was 4,108 now 4,140 - 32
• Calderdale - was 654 now 657 - 3
• Doncaster - was 1,956 now 1,960 - 4
• East Riding of Yorkshire - was 1,633, now 1,636 - 3
• Hull - was 1,533, now 1,535 - 2
• Kirklees - was 1,960, now 1,978 - 18
• Leeds - was 3,588, now 3,595 - 7
• North Yorkshire - was 2,509, now 2,513 - 4
• Rotherham - was 1,855, now 1,864 - 9
• Sheffield - was 3,931, now 3,945 - 14
• Wakefield - was 1,613, now 1,618 - 5
• York - was 898, now 899 - 1

Now let's see what pub reopenings do to that lot. Fingers crossed.

 

This was social distancing at the Lane ends Idle.

 

Looks like there was some sort of police incident by the positioning of the cars

 

Revelation. Incident at pub on Saturday night. Shock, horror.

 

The police apparently closed the Five Lane Ends pub as they weren't following guidelines.

I saw that on Facebook, it's perfectly possible another type of incident led to the pub getting closed?

 

I still don’t know where the Five Lane Ends pub is. The pub in the film is the Lane Ends and police attended after landlady called them