The Turnaround: In Numbers

One thing to note about that webpage is that they started their calculations with the 95/6 season, but the playoffs actually began with the 86/7 season. I'd argue you'd have to start from there to get a complete picture of the points and paces needed. Perhaps they didn't want to factor in the seasons immediately prior, in which there were fewer than 46 matches. Last season is also a problem that way.

I've done my calculations with all seasons at 46 matches, pro-rating where necessary, and from that come up with 71.1 points as the average for 7th place in the playoff era. It's not precise, but gives a good general idea of what's needed. As I mentioned earlier, I'd love to see us have that sort of second half that leads us to the playoffs, but I personally wouldn't bet chocolate buttons on that, let alone money!

RCB

 

Lots of ifs and buts going on but I look at it as win our next 2 games and then it's 1.8points per match average required, which isn't unrealistic.

 

Unfortunately like us Mansfield are motoring up the table

 

Surely this is a good thing though as they will take points from the teams we are chasing.

 

I guess the non-mathematical way of doing it is simply looking at the top seven and seeing which of those you think are going to drop away?

It is currently Cambridge, FGR, Morecambe, Cheltenham, Newport, Carlisle, Salford.

For me, I'd say Morecambe may drop out of the playoffs. I think FGR, Salford and Cheltenham will be top three and Cambs, Newport and Carlisle will make playoffs. I think there is, realistically, one more playoff spot up for grabs.

Then look at all of the team inbetween us and them. How many of those are going to keep us at bay.

Tranmere in 8th have 10 more points (having played a game more). I think they will finish in the playoffs (only out of it on GD at the moment) and take that last spot.

Mansfield are only 4 points ahead of us (having played a game more). I think us and them will come flying, but it might be tight as to who finishes higher.

Bolton are below us. They've played a game more. I don't think any of the sides below us will leap frog us now, it will be a case of how many above us can we grind down.

Exeter are 8 pts above us, having played the same no. of games. We will have a job on grinding them down, but it isn't impossible.

I dont rate Crawley, Port Vale, Orient, Colchester, Scunny or Oldham, personally. Walsall are 7 pts ahead of us but have played twice more. I think we can get to them.

So looking at it that way, I think we will face a mighty tough task to make the play offs, but, along with Exeter, Morecambe, Mansfield and, possible Walsall, I think we will be in the chasing pack and possibly make the top 10 to top 12.

 

Jesus this league is dreadful. I don’t rate anybody in this league and this season has been a massive missed opportunity.

 

Absolutely. We haven't come up against one genuinely decent side yet have we?

I've watched most of the games except Mansfield away and Oldham, as I'd just had enough of the efforts under McCall by then, but even teams like Cheltenham, Cambridge and Carlisle who have taken points off us, I haven't thought they were all that. Its an absolutely travesty that anyone in this league is going to be crowned champions. It is a total s**t fest of a league.

 

im not too sure about Newport. Their side was half full of loan signings who have being recalled

 

True. This is not an ordinary season. Squad restrictions flatten things out. Promotion and play offs could be very low points totals. Big sides cant just have big squads to cover

 

Strange season or not, this set of players will NOT reach the play offs.

Nonsensical hope. Blinkered vision

 

A fair opinion, but how long does this run need to go on for before it becomes a possibility? I mentioned in another thread, the next 7 games will define how it turns out, being as all of those games are against teams above us.

 

If we could replicate our last 7 games, we would have 48 points from 31 games, needing approx 24/25 points from our remaining 15 games.
That starts with a replication of our current form against opposition, whom sit higher. Form or not, such teams are their, as we stand, for a reason.
In February alone, we have 7 games alone. Actually those 7 games are in just 21 days... 21 days. (In the 4 weeks from the Exeter game we have 9 games in 28 days)....
Inevitably we will need a fair bit of rotation, injuries will occur (see Clarke yesterday), individual form will negate and over the last two games, you can see some signs that the fluidity of early weeks under T&S are being challenged especially from a defensive point of view, though brilliantly we won both games.
We lack pace, cover in midfield and IMO, this squad is an average league 2 team. Rowe has started well but can he manage the minutes?
So getting 17 points from 21 in February would still require approx 25 points from the last 15 games (7 wins, 4 draws?)
Context from our remaining 22 games we would need 12 wins, 6 draws and around 4 defeats. This with the same team that has shown its failings in previous times. Yes T&S have galvanised this squad, yes we have produced results but I just don't see this continuity over the remainder of the season.
To answer, we can consider now, we could consider at the end of February assuming a good return. But this squad, its depth, its strengths and limitations will need to find championship form under T&S. I'm happy to proved wrong, crikey you can set up a thread at the end of the season if you wish, taking the Michael if you do wish...

But it's nonsensical and blinkered hope. In my opinion.

 

You could be right there. I see they lost yesterday too

 

Nonsensical to me, means impossible. Unlikely yes. Factors lend me to believe points total wont be as high. No teams seem to be running away with it

 

Nonsensical means no sense.

 

Having avoided the league 2 highlights on Quest for about the whole year, I watched it last night. There is a chance we can go up this season. They teams and quality in this division is very poor, we shouldn't look at them as we do premier league quality sides. There was so much poor, sloppy and low quality play, even from sides near the top, this team and management have enough in them to go up. Continue with this level of consistency and wehave a chance.

 

But there is sense even if you disagree with it. Im lookinh forward to you replacing your dictionary at the end of season