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The Turnaround: In Numbers

Discussion in 'City Talk' started by JonButterfield, Jan 26, 2021.

  1. JonButterfield

    JonButterfield Star Player
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    Stuart's last seven games saw 1 draw and 6 losses.

    2-2 Exeter City (H) --- 13 (6) --- 16 (7)
    0-3 Salford City (A) --- 12 (2) --- 15 (9)
    0-1 Leyton Orient (A) --- 11 (3) --- 6 (1)
    1-2 Oldham Athletic (H) (cup) --- 7 (1) --- 16 (7)
    1-2 Cheltenham Town (H) --- 10 (3) --- 13 (6)
    0-1 Carlisle (H) --- 6 (0) --- 20 (9)
    1-3 Oldham (A) --- 21 (6) --- 14 (4)

    That's 5 scored, 14 conceded - 1 point.

    Total Shots for Bradford City: 80
    Total Shots on Target for Bradford City: 21 (26.25 %)
    Total Goals (compared to Total Shots on Target): 5 (23.8%)

    Total Shots for Opposition: 100
    Total Shots on Target for Opposition: 43 (43 %)
    Total Goals (compared to Total Shots on Target): 14 (32.5 %)

    Way behind the opponent's on all these major metrics.

    So what's happened since?

    Trueman & Sellars' first seven games have seen 4 wins and 3 draws.

    1-1 Crawley Town (A) --- 6 (4) --- 13 (0)
    1-0 Cambridge United (H) --- 11 (3) --- 9 (1)
    2-1 Grimsby Town (A) --- 5 (3) --- 11 (2)
    1-0 Tranmere (A) --- 9 (3) --- 13 (6)
    0-0 Port Vale (H) --- 12 (4) --- 5(1)
    0-0 Cambridge United (A) --- 13 (5) --- 13 (5)
    3-1 Southend United (A) --- 11 (8) --- 12 (3)

    That's 8 scored, 3 conceded - 15 points.

    Total Shots for Bradford City: 67
    Total Shots on Target for Bradford City: 30 (44.76 %)
    Total Goals (compared to Total Shots on Target): 8 (26.67 %)

    Total Shots for Opposition: 76
    Total Shots on Target for Opposition: 18 (23.67 %)
    Total Goals (compared to Total Shots on Target): 3 (16.67%)

    That represents almost a perfect role reversal between us and the opposition - the one statistic that we haven't reversed is the total shots on goal - we're still lagging behind our opponents, but we have drastically lowered the quality of the opponents chances according to the stats.

    Feel free to draw any conclusions you wish or point out any interesting data, but for me it shows we are being dragged up the table thanks to our new-found defensive competence - while going forward we're creating fewer, but better quality chances. The stats going forward wouldn't have been anywhere near as impressive had we not scored 3 tonight - so it's clear that's the area of highest focus.

    What's nice is, it seems to be the case. We are highlighting all the right areas for improvement. It's looking decent, hmm?
     
  2. Bantam Begins

    Bantam Begins Squad Player

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    Have you got a form table ? Dare we say we have the legs for a cheeky playoff push or maybe it’s about building momentum for next year and doing the auto route.
     
    vladimir and Lancashire Bantam like this.
  3. Idlebantam

    Idlebantam Squad Player
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    It's a remarkable turn around. As Trueman and Sellars took the reins, many fans were worried about the very really prospect of us losing our football league status as we plunged into the bottom 2.

    Whilst I think talk of the playoffs now is a bit premature, surely, the pair now deserve to be rewarded with an offer of permanent roles? What more can they do to impress.
     
  4. Wolfysmith

    Wolfysmith Impact Sub

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    Someone posted our stats on WOAP in the CUFC match report comments:
    The average points for a play off spot has been 73 points. We’d need to get 48 more points, an average of 2 points per game. That’s 2 wins in every 3 matches we play. To put that into context, the top team in the last 3.5 seasons has averaged 1.93 points game…so we’d need to play top of the table form for the remaining 24 games. Gulp.
     
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  5. JonButterfield

    JonButterfield Star Player
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    https://thefishy.co.uk/formtable.php?table=4
     
  6. Bantam Begins

    Bantam Begins Squad Player

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  7. Bantam Begins

    Bantam Begins Squad Player

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    So it’s about building momentum for next year then!! No way we are doing that.
     
    Wakefield Bantam likes this.
  8. XCIV_Bantam

    XCIV_Bantam Squad Player
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    borderlescott and Bantam Begins like this.
  9. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    I'm never one for turning any chance of progression down and if we could get into a possible play off place we have to go for it IMO.
     
    Stoneski likes this.
  10. XCIV_Bantam

    XCIV_Bantam Squad Player
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    saw this as a good time to show some graphs Ive been making over the past couple of years. The chart on the left is inspired by @River_City_Bantam@River_City_Bantam graphs. Shows where we are currently. The other graph shows our current progress with other seasons.
    upload_2021-1-26_22-13-27.png
     
  11. Dubois

    Dubois Squad Player
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    But maybe this isn't a normal year. An awful lot of teams are very close together and we've got half the season still to play. Fixture congestion will play a big part too, as will luck with injuries and suspensions. If we can keep up this form we could well be within touching distance of the playoffs in a month or so. Many a team has come from nowhere in the past so why not us?
     
  12. Bantam Begins

    Bantam Begins Squad Player

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    I think us and the Mansfield fans would have laughed at this form table in November/December
     
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  13. Bantam Begins

    Bantam Begins Squad Player

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    Yes but teams like Carlisle who are already in the playoffs have games in hands on us.
     
  14. JonButterfield

    JonButterfield Star Player
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    Well it's definitely not a normal year :joy:

    As for the season, it's telling that sides like Oldham are willing to sell their best players to their rivals while we're in a position to buy from ours.

    Hopefully the massive criticisms of last season's lazy and ambitionless wheelings and dealings have had an effect. It might turn out we've left it too late for a play off push, likely even, but this January window needs to be a sign of things to come. These next few years there are going to be very few clubs at this level unaffected by the last couple of seasons - we should be looking to make a serious impression by swimming past the driftwood of which there will be plenty. We should make it our aim to be in the Championship within five years.

    If Stefan is going to back this club then I don't see any reason why that's unrealistic. So many clubs capitulating or struggling on and/or off the field that it would be criminal for a well-funded, well-run club (even with a healthy balance sheet) to fail to progress.
     
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  15. JonButterfield

    JonButterfield Star Player
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    Carlisle aren't 'teams', they're 'one team', and I wouldn't worry too much about catching them in order to finish 7th.

    They're top by a country mile on points-per-game. They're the only team that has won more than half their games, and they haven't even scraped that stat either. They've got change from that deal.
     
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  16. Bantam@{Lancs}

    Bantam@{Lancs} Impact Sub

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    I'd say if we can get 7+ points from the next 3 games then it's on, otherwise we leave ourselves too much to catch up, it's amazing where even talking about this though tbf.
     
  17. Bradford End

    Bradford End Impact Sub

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    For me, it’s when the inevitable loss comes and how we react to it that will define our season.

    Long way to go, yet.
     
    #17 Bradford End, Jan 26, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2021
  18. River_City_Bantam

    River_City_Bantam Squad Player
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    And another gulp or two more... If one chooses to be very optimistic, one could point out that the fewest points a playoff team has won in the 3-points-for-a-win era has been 66, which would mean a 1.65 points-per-match pace for us from now on. Our present good run has got us up to 1.22... I'd love it if we did manage 7th or better, as that would mean a brilliant second-half of the season. But I think it more likely that this season will be about getting set up well for a promotion push next season.

    I'd like to see us finish in the top half, better still top-10; this current squad is certainly capable of that. Add some strengthening in the summer -- the famous "last pieces" of the jigsaw puzzle -- and we should be a lot happier in 21/2.

    RCB
     
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    Wolfysmith likes this.
  19. River_City_Bantam

    River_City_Bantam Squad Player
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    Yes, we've just got our noses above the guaranteed safety line, Finally! But the start of the season was bad enough that it will take a while yet to even get to the "Ronnie Brown" comfort line, let alone playoffs. Still, it's nice to be feeling optimistic again.

    RCB
     
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  20. Park bantam

    Park bantam Regular Starter
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    After Barrow we have some really tough fixtures away at Exeter improving Scunthorpe and Salford get a good points all out of those fixtures and it could be interesting. But I am just happy we have put a good distance between us and relegation
     
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