Fans Back At VP - A Plan

Decent article in fairness, to which I can resonate with much of it.

 

We'll all be going when the season restarts.

Outdoor stadiums should and will be open come September-October or whenever the season starts - anything else is a catastrophic failure of government.

 

All Read, click on link as this seems the closest yet and from Independent. Yes I know it's mainly about the PL but lets be honest it's them that are going to get fans back into grounds. What the plans are and what clubs will need to do to allow this to happen.

Miguel Delaney saying the football authorities are aiming for up to 40% capacity at PL grounds beginning in mid-September

This would also include:

- Mandatory face masks
- The implementation of an electronic ticketing system to aid track and trace
- The current plan calls for at least one seat between each fan, however there are logistical issues to resolve there given the age, size and seating arrangements at some grounds
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/premier-league-crowds-capacity-coronavirus-pandemic-latest-a9614751.html

 

Not peer reviewed yet but it's from Kings Colege London so a reputable source. Interesting study to keep an eye on.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests

Suggests that immunity following having the disease could be very short lived in a similar fashion to a cold. Just another little unknown when we're considering people congregating more.

 

Not being political but your comment about government is total rubbish. Any approach to the virus would have resulted in closed public arena's until at least a vaccine is ready in 2021 ish. I dont expect stadium attendance until 2021 with the resultant loss of income to the club. That's the issue ....

 

But falling antibodies over several weeks is normal. It does not mean no immunity. According to this article, antibody levels fall because the liver removes them when no longer needed, and it's not the level of antibodies that grant immunity. It's the increased rate that memory cells can manufacture them on a reinfection that provides the immunity. Plus a few studies are saying the virus is being fought off with T-cells in many cases, without resorting to antibodies which are the second line of defence. Measuring antibodies could underestimate immunity.

(Just scroll down to graph if pressed for time.)

https://pmgbiology.com/2014/04/07/immunity-a-understanding-for-biology-igcse/

 

With all due respect, I'm going to lean towards the accuracy of the study by the team at Kings College about Covid-19 rather than that particular link which is helpfully written by Mr Gillam, a biology teacher from Cambridgeshire, specifically to assist 14/15 year olds prepare for their GCSEs in 2014.

While I'm sure that the "article" is sufficient to allow somebody to get a full 4 marks if that particular question pops up in their O Level paper I'm not quite so sure I'd want to be citing it as a source in this scenario.

 

Antibody levels fall normally and are manufactured again on reinfection. This paper just says they've been falling. I don't see what's new in the paper. It just confirms what was already expected.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429v1

 

I aren't going to pretend to be anywhere even close to an expert but I'm going to guess that the guys doing the analysis had done pretty well in their Biology GCSEs so already knew that and so were expecting some drop off.

It must therefore follow on that one of the conclusions drawn already take this into account - “One thing we know about these coronaviruses is that people can get reinfected fairly often. What that must mean is that the protective immunity people generate doesn’t last very long. It looks like Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, might be falling into that pattern as well.” Prof Stuart Neil, co-author on the study.

in all honesty it probably to be expected that it's behaving in a similar way to the other viruses in the same family although it indicates that it's towards the shorter end of the spectrum towards a simple cold rather than MERS or SARS. It would probably be more of a surprise if it didn't behave that way but it's the first study that's demonstrated it. Same caveat as before though, not yet peer reviewed so hopefully subject to change.

 

But this one behaves more like a blood infection than a respiratory virus and they hope for a vaccine, which they've not had with other coronaviruses because they mutate too much. So maybe it's comparable and maybe not. Anyway, it seems to be getting a little off-topic for this thread so I'll post these.

PFL aim for 40% crowds

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/premier-league-crowds-capacity-coronavirus-pandemic-latest-a9614751.html

EFL and lower aiming for 1/3rd capacity?

https://www.lythamstannesexpress.co.uk/sport/football/afc-fylde-chief-supports-rumoured-crowd-restrictions-footballs-return-2911335

Perhaps, the PFL can aim for a slightly higher figure if they can afford stricter policing? Or maybe they'll settle on the same number.

So, how would we prioritise tickets to get 8k in?

 

Try and sell as many as 8k first....!!

 

It's entirely down to politics and the government.

It has been made clear by the WHO that being outside alone presents a significantly lower risk of virus spread. Wind dispersal, the fact sunlight is believed to kill the virus, that current outbreaks are centred around gatherings INDOORS - ie, factories, meat processing plants, hospitals, etc.

There is a document on the WHO website that calls for factoring in things like access to control measures - sanitising stations everywhere there is a surface likely to be touched (ie, hand rails, top and bottom), limited interactions (close the concourse, no refreshments on sale, limit movement as much as possible, enforce the wearing of masks), be aware of virus spread (you'd probably avoid Leicester right now, but in two-three months it might be fine), have a response plan in place (do hospitals have capacity? If not, don't host sporting events) - if necessary, football fans could provide a recent test result before entering the stadium, and if you want to be super extreme, require another test ahead of the next game they will attend.

I can't think of many, if any, safer scenarios than sitting at a football game facing the pitch wearing a mask if it's managed right.

Here are some examples of far less safe environments: supermarkets, shops, workplaces where the workforce is in regular contact with others, pubs, bars, restaurants - anything with four walls and a roof locking in any potential virus.

There are measures that can be easily and affordably put in place to ensure football can safely return with crowds by September-October - but there has to be the political will to lead the way and not simply wait for another nation to try it first.

It's very important that sports and events in indoor arenas remain behind closed doors - but let's not confuse the phrase 'behind closed doors' with an out-of-doors, open-to-the-air venue because it's a misnomer.

There's only one reason we wouldn't be planning to open our outdoor stadiums, and it's political posturing in my mind. Feel free to disagree, but that's exactly as I see it. Let's face it, if pubs are open, everything is on the table.

 

Up to you as you are entitlement to your opinion. I read risk differently (through work and NHS relatives) and whilst I agree with most of what you say I wont be sitting in close proximity to many shouty strangers (who may have lacked social distancing in pubs on a regular basis) indoors or out any time soon no matter what the government say. I think spectator sport is months away.

 

I agree it's months away - but is it 2-3 months away, or 6-7.

And what's realistically the difference?

Waiting until mid winter or, flu season, makes ways less sense to me.

 

I'm not sure I can see any season ticket sales. (I'd presume 25 yrs get suspended a season.) Many will be nervous and would not buy and the club does not like selling mid-season if people might start to feel more comfortable (hopefully). I suspect we are going to see day-ticket sales at normal prices. If they do that, I don't think they'd get 8k. My guess is around 4-5k. Some won't like a price rise. Some will find it hard to sit with friends. Some will dislike the reduced atmosphere. That would see ticket revenue down maybe 30% and commercial revenue will be down even more.

 

Those that paid 20 years ago don’t have a current contract with the company/club. So they shouldn’t be priority. Whereas those that have already bought their ticket for next season have already entered a contract with the club which I’m not sure the club could just unilaterally cancel and then resell the same thing.

 

Exactly
After over 50 years on the terraces and last years unmitigated disaster a lot like myself won't be renewing I missed quite a few games last season following performances like Carlisle away on Boxing Day and Morecambe home on New Year's Day and didn't regret it so why torment myself with the possibly of a paid seat
Some games we got as far as the pub then nobody wanted to leave and brave the embarrassment anyone thinking that 8k will not be enough should think again
Covid will be quoted as a reason for the drop (again) in ticket sales but how much longer can the club make excuses for the complete lack of drive and ambition coming from the top
Signings of the ilk of Billy Clarke and the uncertainty on Vaughan ain't going to put bums on seats that's for sure

 

it used to about Bradford city on here , now every one is a political and biological expert .

 

Shouldn't be much of a problem

 

It will be easy for me to make my decision on whether to attend when we can - dead easy.
Players give the knee and that's me not going until it stops.