Fans Back At VP - A Plan

Problem is there won’t be much of a pre season for the top flight and championship. Expected to restart mid September. Got to tie into player breaks. Can’t see it happening. Fair few rounds in the carabao to get through

 

It shouldn't be a problem for top flight teams they have massive squads.

 

I agree with you but the players and clubs won’t agree. Top teams target league cup nowadays. More than they used to. They will want to win it

 

So how many constitutes a bubble ?, my grandson sits next to me my brother sits directly behind me and his grandson and son in law sit 5 seats down from him on the same row.
So do we ask 3 fans next to us to move so we can all sit together and have a bigger double or are we asked to move.

 

Bubbles only currently work for those in the same household or one household plus a single adult. Not sure how many groups that go together that would totally include. I go with family and a friend, in total 4 households so we would all need to distance

 

Unless you all live together then you can not bubble so you would all have to sit separately

 

Is that the way it would be seen, that rules us out then, but if its November as @wetherbywhaler is suggesting things could have changed dramatically, even with cheap tickets there might not be the usual take up of 10,000+ due to recent situations.

 

I think your right until people are reassured they are safe they will be reticent to enter football grounds

 

Don't think people are bothered about safety now. You only need to see the queues for Nike, Primark yesterday.

So don't think it will been down to safety. Think it will be down to many not having a job! Not seen the news this morning? You will see come October how this Furlough scheme was a load of bollocks.

 

Attendances will be down next season. The virus infection rates are improving rapidly so might or might not be an issue by then but unemployment most definitely will be. It's looking like being worse than the early 80s recession for jobs. The health impications from this are likely to be much worse than the virus.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/outofworkbenefits/timeseries/bcjd/unem

I don't understand those scared of going out when you look at the actual numbers and ignore all the c**p in the media. Current rates of new virus infections would kill less than 4k per year of old and compromised people if it were maintained - but they are falling rapidly. Other causes kill 600k old and compromised people per year. The current level of virus risk increases your overall risk by less than 1% - and it's falling rapidly. Look at "Actual Death Date" here (4th chart - most recent days will see more added)):

http://covidtracker.uksouth.cloudapp.azure.com/

It's running about 50 people per day but that reflects tougher ones hanging on on from infections 6-8 weeks ago. Current new infection rates will likely kill no more than 10 per day, maybe only 5. On a normal day, about 1500 old and compromised people die from all the other risks they face. Why stay home and be miserable?

Risk is being extremely badly explained by our media.

 

Cinemas are reopening soon, Cineworld 10th July

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/cineworld-reopening-date-cinemas-england-scotland-mulan-tenet-a9568116.html

 

Good I want to be able to see tenet in a cinema

 

22 new cases in Yorkshire hospitals on Tuesday. The daily peak was estimated at 57,000 for the Yorkshire and the Northeast region on March 23rd so the virus is as good as gone (although we weren't really measuring back then so it's a guess.) Why are pubs shut and my kids can't play on a see-saw? Death rates have yet to exceed bad flu years within living memory. Did you know excess winter deaths averaged just over 40k in the 1970s and over 60k in the 1950s? The UK's population was a bit lower then, too. It's only in the last couple of decades we've got excess deaths down to 30k per year so a spike rather higher is not that big a deal. It still hit 50.1k in 2017/18. SARS-CoV-2 is bad but we can now see it's not as bad as feared and not much worse than many in the past. We're now seeing that we've probably done more damage to health shutting the economy down than keeping it open.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-46397891

Can we get on with our lives, please?

 

I said at the start of all this that you can't have a country ran by scientist and they seem to be still doing.

Boris urgently needs to reduce the 2m rule, businesses to reopen offices & get people back to work in them and stop the scientist saying nonsense like talk side by side or back to back.

I've said Boris is one of the worst leaders ever in the 6 months he's been in charge I stand by that as well. The man is utter useless. Shocking PM.

 

I think his experience with the virus has made him totally re-evaluate his beliefs and opinions. I think a pre-virus Boris would have gone for the options you are proposing.

 

Your optimism is to be admired but we locked the country down for 3 months nearly and we are at 60k excess deaths this year at best estimates fromFT. If we had not locked down I would say that would have tripled. Lockdown has worked. We don’t know why the damage would have been without it but I can imagine it would be a hell of a lot worse.

However now is the right time to return to more normality

 

We locked down too late. Peak deaths was April 8th. That means peak infection was likely around the first week in March as it takes 4 -6 weeks usually for disease progression in fatal cases.

Most highly infected countries have seen a similar progression of the virus regardless of actions. Ours is very similar to Sweden, for instance, even though they had no lockdown and have now virtually abolished social spacing. Why would ours be like an unlocked country unless we locked down too late? It's also much like Spain, Italy and France. It suggests these countries all missed the peak of infection with so many cases being asymptomatic - now estimated at nearly 80% and being really obvious when we get big outbreaks on military ships and in meat factories. They find a few cases and test, only to then find hundreds each time, with more than 50% asymptomatic - sometimes 90%.

On the other hand, countries (or US states) that locked down before the virus had taken hold seem to be having significant problems as they unlock. That is to be expected. Indeed, I predicted it. This is best seen in the USA where states with higher rates of infection, like the UK, are seeing no new problems develop yet while states like Texas and Florida are now just getting their first wave and seeing rising hospital admissions. Infection data is useless for comparisons as it's so incosutently collected but the line between those countries and states that are seeing increasing problems and not seems to be around 150-200 deaths per million as a rough indicator of accumulated infections. Below this and infections take off again as they unlock. Above this and nothing problematic seems to have happened yet. Countries/States above 500 deaths per million seem to so far be seeing all effects of the virus continue to fall away as they unlock. There looks to be strong signs of some herd immunity effects when you reach this level (lost most of the very vulnerable and very old already?). These countries might be able to fully unlock and allow crowds again without a new surge, perhaps.

Our media seem to be completely ignoring this clear difference in case reoccurrence between high and low infected countries in their reporting but it's obviously the key to how different places unlock and how some will struggle. Countries like New Zealand, China and India now look to have a problem that UK, Spain, Belgium, Italy and New York do not appear to be having. It's early days, though and this wants a bit more monitoring. There is hope for all, though. I keep turning up little bits of information that suggest the virus strains circulating now might have weakened slightly. The evidence is not yet convincing, though.