COVID-19

Just had a look at the monthly mortality reports. They have actually taken 2020 out of the five year averages used in the report. Not sure if that is the case with the figures you are quoting.

Looking at Jan-April reports, April was release 20 May, so far this year we are down by about 1500 on the years 2015-19 and about 5700 on 2016-19 & 21. So down slightly on pre covid 5 year average but that was created by January(3300 down), When Mays figures come out it could be that we are up on the 5 year average pre covid.

Again not sure where your 25k figure comes from.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/previousReleases

 

I looked on my phone so the excel is a bit dodgy to use but isn't the cumulative deaths up to week 22 about 224,000? And the cumulative 5 year average about 248,000?

I just tried to look at the old data sets but once again not on the laptop but it looked like the 5 year average for 2014-2019 was also around 245,000 which might make a bit of sense of they've removed 2020 completely?

 

As I said I'm using the complied monthly reports as the data is rechecked and collated rather than the weekly figures, see my link above.

 

So was I.

I think I may have looked at the English stats for this year and missed Wales off but struggling with the website downloads.

Whatever it is the point still remains - whatever the "covid" figures are we are basically getting less overall death than we would expect.

 

Just looked and I think you have misread the data . If you are quoting about 225k that is the total for 'Deaths not involving COVID', there is then a column for 'COVID-19' that totals about 20k. So total deaths upto week 22 is 245476,

 

Picky x 2

 

When looking at deaths I think it is better to look at death certificates rather than the total number that have died with Covid. Yes it might have been a secondary factor but to be listed it has to, in the professional opinion of the Dr, have had an impact of causing the death

 

It's not picky though. It's the actual difference between it being an issue that's causing death or simply a corresponding factor.

 

But in many cases it is a significant factor. Contracting Covid on top of a heart or lung condition can be the difference between dying or surviving. Its far more than just a coincidental issue.

 

So why don't the excess deaths reflect that there is a new way to die then? I would have expected a new disease to cause excess death - if cancer appeared out of nowhere today we would get more death next year than we had last year but that isn't the case and I expect the same with Covid over time to be fair.

It seems that a lot of the people who are sadly so compromised health wise are almost a ticking time bomb and it's just a case of what inevitable disease is involved at the end. But the people who are dying with/of covid now are basically people who would have died with Alzheimer's disease, Dementia, Cancer, Pneumonia, etc, etc, at basically the exact same time anyway. But we can no more stop Covid than we can stop any of these other diseases so why worry about it any more than we do those?

 

They still end up dead because of covid, Many older people who are the worst hit by covid have other conditions but most would live with them but covid means they often succumb and die where without contracting would live so the difference between OF or WITH is nonsense and picky because the people still die because of covid whether directly or indirectly and would be alive if they had not contracted it,

 

But the excess deaths don't reflect that at all.

The excess deaths seem to suggest that people are currently dying simply because "its their time" to a degree. If it hadn't been covid it would have been one of the other multitude of diseases that put the final nail in the coffin for want of a better phrase.

To say that the people would have been alive if they hadn't got covid is not backed up in the stats. There would have just been another inevitable disease that helped push those people sadly beyond the edge.

 

Not looked at the excess death figure but have they ignored 2020 like other comparisons? But still got the Covid deaths from 2021 in?

 

God knows officially!! I think they're all over the place!

Although I think you can pull data from here and basically make your own averages or datasets

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/monthlyfiguresondeathsregisteredbyareaofusualresidence

 

I see they are extending the covid booster to over 50s and also giving them a free flu jab at some point

 

I see people are still worried about Covid. Apparently there are 3.5m cases. If that is the cases and ICU beds are well under 300 then it truly is time to stop threating about it.

And that doesn't mean moving on to doomsday scenarios about the weather.

 

Theres no worry about it at all the government are offering people over 50 the choice of getting a booster, no one is forcing anyone to get it

 

People are still worried about Covid because it affects people very differently. I had it at Easter and it was no worse than a cold. But I've just got back from Italy to find that three of my neighbours' family have been totally wiped out for a week and all, including their teenage daughter, are still feeling pretty dreadful.
I also have a fellow band member who is stuck in France at the moment, feeling terrible with Covid. Two days ago he was actually hallucinating.

It may not be killing people in large numbers like in 2020 but for some people it's extremely unpleasant indeed. Not to mention the risk of getting long Covid, which you persistently underplay. Then there's the poor sods who are immunocompromised and are still at serious risk of hospitalisation or death if they catch it, whose lives have been shattered because they are forced into isolation every time there's a new wave/variant.