COVID-19

Possibly but from the podcast and Talksport it seemed to suggest the players were overdue from when they were offered

 

And the build up to Christmas Project Fear starts now

 

We had the old save Christmas line last year, the old ones are the best as they say.

 

They said to start early this year

 

Number of people in Hospital as of the latest data (19th October 2021)

Wales 568
Scotland 869
England 6,099

Adjusted per 100k

Wales 1.8 per 100k
Scotland 1.6 per 100k
England 1.1 per 100k

Masks have always been mandatory and vaccine passports have been rolled out in Wales and Scotland, and yet the number of people per 100k in hospital are 63% & 45% higher than those in England.

 

Another day and another push for restrictions. The latest story is about plan C.

Minister denies there is a Covid ‘plan C’ to ban Christmas mixing in England | Coronavirus | The Guardian

I actually start to get the feeling that the government is reluctant to move to plan B because they know that in order to mandate something you need to take the public with you. And 10min walking round a supermarket or City Centre shows that if you mandate masks, people simply won't follow so it's easier not to mandate it than be totally embarassed.

We are in a different position to where we were last year where you had the goodwill of the people, that has gone and I think in the government, they know that.

This plan C story does seem to be made up via the media, the government would be absolutely crucified if they told people to stop household mixing, I for one don't believe the government to be stupid enough to consider it.

This push for restrictions is media driven, and from those whom it won't really effect. Your retired teacher for example or your person without children happily working from home.

I think any move to restrictions will not be greeted in the same manor as before once those who are forced into it realise the furlough and other safety nets which were in place, are not coming back.

 

When does Boris come back off holiday?

 

He's back isn't he? He did PMQs yesterday.

 

Wasn't he back Tuesday

 

For some reason I thought he had gone again. In that case maybe tomorrow for his announcement, is 2 days long enough for a u-turn

 

He won't implement any restrictions before COP26, otherwise he won't be able to get those photo ops in with the other leaders.

After the COP26 piss up is over he might change his tune.

 

Is that next weekend? He will not control what happens there anyway, wee Jimmy Krankie is in charge of restrictions there

 

Wee Jimmy Krankie only imposes restriction on the Scottish People. Those rocking up for COP26 will get free reign, just like the Uefa officials did in London.

Remember Covid goes away if you are important.

 

Just over 52k today. In at number 15 highest daily figure

 

What other leaders? No one’s fcking coming!

 

I've had a look at the same day last year. If you remember we were just days from having Boris coming on TV to lock us down for the whole month of November.

21/10/2020

Tests - 314,861
Cases - 26,688
People in Hospital - 8,132
Deaths - 221

21/10/2021

Tests - 1,106,306
Cases - 52,009
People in Hospital - 8,142
Deaths -115

It is worth noting it only went up from there in 2020, the vaccine seems be holding firm.

However outside the Under 18s, the rate and number of cases of people with Covid is now firmly weighted in to Vaccinated. I guess this is what happens when you send out a narrative about being double vaccinated and pushing for Vaccine Passports, it gives a sense of invincibility.



Large numbers of people who are in hospital are double vaccinated, however as a proportion of vaccinated and unvaccinated these figures are heavily weighted to the unvaccinated. However again in terms of thinking you are invincible if you are double jabbed, only 1 in every 11 over 80 in hospital and 1 in every 8 people aged 70 to 79 in hospital are unvaccinated. The people still suffering the worst with this virus are those who were most at risk from the very start.



The death figures pretty much mirror those of the hospital figures. 2 in every 100k 40 to 49 year olds are dying to covid if they are unvaccinated, this drops to 0.5 in every 100k if they are vaccinated. The figures in the under 39s are negligible. The death rate is still being driven by those in the high risk catergory, with it being double that of the group before from age 50 - 59 upwards. 8 in 9 deaths in the over 80s are from vaccinated people, it is 6 in 7 for the 70 - 79 year olds, however this is mainly because of the low numbers of unvaccinated in this group.



There are a few questions in this data. Is the vaccine waining? Those dying were those who were jabbed first or is it simply down to them still being high risk. Is the difference in case rate between 40 - 49s and 30 - 39s down to the AZ vaccine not really being used on those under 40?
With these figures laid out as they are, are vaccine passports worth the paper or phone they are written/scanned on?

It seems you are twice as likely to die as a fully vaccinated over 60 year old than you are as a under 49 year old who is unvaccinated. So really should full focus go on boosting the over 50s compared to trying to get the under 30s jabbed with the threat of a vaccine passport when the mortality and hospitalisation rate is still way below nearly every other group?

 

The focus should be on boosters if protection is waining like has been said. The issue is do they shorten the time frame to less than 6 months. Personally I would say if it is classed as safe surely it is better to get the booster done now rather than into the winter.

It is a good comparison to same date last year. Hopefully the vaccinations will stop the upward trend from last year.

I still think they will introduce some restrictions sooner rather than later

 

I'm not disagreeing with your figures, but there was a statistician on the radio this morning. I thought he was referring to October last year but he may have been referring to some other period. I thought he said that today we have about 50k new infections a day and about 8k in hospital, whereas previously we had 50k new infections a day but 34k in hospital. He was quoting these figures as evidence of the effectiveness of the vaccine. He also quoted the percentage of currently empty beds in hospitals

 

it was January

 

That will have been when we hit 50k cases which was late Dec/January.

There is no doubt the vaccine is preventing deaths. If you take the figures in my previous post for over 80s deaths. The vaccinated death rate is 45.7 per 100k. If you adjust those 1,175 vaccinated deaths to the 117 per 100k unvaccinated rate and you see deaths jump to 3,008 nearly a 3 fold increase. Adjust these figures across all age ranges and you can get an idea of the reduction in deaths.