COVID-19

I'm sure that the voting on the Coronavirus Emergency Act which is today isn't in anyway connected to this story just dropping.

Covid-19: New mutation of Delta variant under close watch in UK - BBC News

Expect more over the coming days to butter us up for Vaccine Passports.

 

wrong,
You are asked to start with the immediate, direct cause of death on line Ia, then to go back through the sequence of events or conditions that led to death on subsequent lines, until you reach the one that started the fatal sequence. If the certificate has been completed properly, the condition on the lowest completed line of part I will have caused all of the conditions on the lines above it. This initiating condition, on the lowest line of part I will usually be selected as the underlying cause of death, following the ICD coding rules. WHO defines the underlying cause of death as “a) the disease or injury which initiated the train of morbid events leading directly to death, or b) the circumstances of the accident or violence which produced the fatal injury”. From a public health point of view, preventing this first disease or injury will result in the greatest health gain.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877302/guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf

it also gives non-covid examples.


as a personal source, my grandfathers death cert (which i have seen with my own eyes) stated that his death was caused by a) liver failure which was helped on by b) cirrhosis which was caused by c) long term alcohol abuse.

in your example given smoking would be in sections b, c or even section 2.

 

Just seen a report of Washington State Head Coach being sacked due to his refusal to be vaccinated even after the state passed a law saying all state employees and healthcare workers had to be double jabbed. He was on about £45k a week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58955577

 

I completely agree we never got down to the low level of some of our neighbours. We chose to open up earlier and try to avoid doing so in winter while they will probably be doing just that. Will it make an impact? Who knows.

I'm not disputing your base figures by the way but there must be an element in there that is simply down to testing because some of the numbers look illogical.

Take the balance of cases/deaths.

So in the last 7 days the UK has had 306,000 cases and 866 deaths

• Germany had 65,535 cases (21%) but 424 deaths (48%)
• Italy had 17,670 cases (5%) but 250 deaths (28%)
• Spain had 11,430 cases (3.7%) but 203 deaths (23%)

The discrepancy in the mortality rate sets my spidey sences tingling that they not picking up as many asymptomatoic cases as we are.

Now that's not to say that our rates aren't actually higher but you'd expect that when one country has been living restriction free for 3 months and comparing it to countries that haven't yet loosened up but when an absolutely accurate figure such as deaths shows a smaller discrepancy than cases there is a bit of a question mark in my mind.

However what is the solution. I'm guessing that all of the European countries will open up properly at some point and then their cases will also go up. Are you thinking that they're going to be living under their current level of restriction for the foreseeable future?

 

I said majority. Of course there will be some people out there who have smoking on their death certificate but it won't be everyone that smoking kills.

Some evidence for you.

https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/40/Suppl_56/P3975#:~:text=In%20all%20cases%2C%20smoking%20was,part%20of%20the%20death%20certificate.&text=Smoking%20is%20not%20recorded%20appropriately,of%20epidemiological%20data%20on%20smoking.

"Conclusions

Smoking is not recorded appropriately on death certificates in patients who died from COPD and lung cancer. This limits death certificates as a potential useful source of epidemiological data on smoking."

 

"if you don't acknowledge things that go against or challenge your view though."

"They will use the symptom/disease that killed them and not guess at what caused that."
yes they do, that statement is plain wrong. what you have shown is doctors not doing their jobs properly but that's not what the 'majority' do. one study of one hospital from nine years ago. seeing as the text is highlighted im guessing you searched on google and sent me the first thing that 'backed' you up.

specifically i am not on about the smoking part, this "They will use the symptom/disease that killed them and not guess at what caused that."
is wrong

 

Not looked but could the difference be due to the vaccination rollout?

 

I searched "smoking on death certificates" and gave you the top result.

Show me that the number of people with smoking on death certificates is close to the number or people we know smoking kills and I'll admit I'm wrong.

Otherwise stop trying so hard.

 

But weirdly alcohol abuse is often listed, so maybe it is some stigma around smoking that Drs do not want to attach to someones death

 

Maybe. I can't quite put my finger on why though especially now they've caught us up or surpassed us on vaccinations in a number of countries.

it's probably a number of reasons which doesn't really help but the differences look immediately odd to me.

 

"if you don't acknowledge things that go against or challenge your view though."

oh dear the hypocrisy is laughable.

you asked me to prove you wrong.

And that goes back to the issue that I mentioned at the beginning. They will use the symptom/disease that killed them and not guess at what caused that. Its why it's a poor measure for the bet.

It's like smoking. For the majority of cases it will be "lung cancer" or equivalent that shows on the death certificate but the doctor won't guess what caused it.

you aren't just on about smoking you are on about all deaths. if you weren't you wouldn't be saying it would be a poor measure for the bet.
I have shown you evidence that the statements you have made here are wrong. all doctors are expected to find what killed them and the causes. The best evidence you can show me to counter that was in a single study, in one hospital from nine years ago.

I can admit when I am wrong why cant you?

"if you don't acknowledge things that go against or challenge your view though." stinks of hypocrisy that

 

Stop trying so hard. Yes if you want me to admit I'm wrong then show me.

I'm on about covid vaccines and smoking specifically. That why I mentioned those two things and nothing else. Here's another article. So that's 2 backing me up and none disproving what I said?

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/10/111024213403.htm

Doctors are expected to find it but my statement wasn't about the expectation - it was about what they do in relation to smoking.

Please stop trying so hard on a largely pointless argument that has nothing to do with the thread. I've said if you prove me wrong I'll admit it but I aren't going round in circles.

 

Smoking seems to be a distraction here which for some reason Drs don't seem to want to put on the death certificate for some reason of not wanting to upset family of the deceased whereas other substance abuse such as alcohol and other drugs they seem happy to put on the death certificate. I can not think of a reason why they wouldn't put the vaccine down if they believed it to be the cause. Surely it should be even more straight forward as it will be a short term investigation whereas smoking could be a cause spread over decades.

 

another study this time from ten years ago! getting closer
Yes if you want me to admit I'm wrong then show me.
i have.. did you read that PDF i sent you? if not here it is again. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877302/guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf

it was about what they do in relation to smoking.
so if they only did it for smoking why would they do it for covid?

genuinely though it is funny trying to see you get out of this hole

Please stop trying so hard on a largely pointless argument that has nothing to do with the thread. I've said if you prove me wrong I'll admit it but I aren't going round in circles.

so why is it okay for you to expect answers of me but you won't give me that in return.


just to remind you...
you ASKED ME to prove YOU wrong.

you haven't actually stated why my evidence wasn't good enough either, you immediately changed tactic to say this is a 'pointless discussion' I certainly don't see it as one?

 

God this is boring.

Yes I read the pdf. It's about the expectation not about what they actually do.

I don't know why they would do it for covid but with only 4 cases mentioned on the death certificate I thought there might be a correlation.

You haven't given me any evidence. You've shown me what doctors are supposed to do which is not at all what I was speaking about.

You should probably DM me if you want to carry on going round in circles. I doubt anybody else wants to read you misunderstanding the point I made.

 

am I supposed to go through every death cert and investigate?

just for clarity by 4 deaths you are referring to the vaccine.

so therefore why aren't you stating all the covid deaths are wrong? can you show me proof of mass incorrect death certs?

you originally sated
"And that goes back to the issue that I mentioned at the beginning. They will use the symptom/disease that killed them and not guess at what caused that. Its why it's a poor measure for the bet."
so now you changed your tune to say you were just on about smoking? so how is your comment relevant in any way? what did you mean then by "poor measure of the bet"?

as soon as I corrected you, you have consistently tried to defer, dismiss and even hide this conversation.

your behaviour is childish and it is embarrassing, but you were wrong.

 

God help me.

See if I can make this clear one last time.

Yes by 4 deaths I meant in relation to the vaccine as that is what we were discussing. I have no opinion about whether covid deaths are wrong.

The discussion was about yours and Ricky's proposed bet, Stork suggested using death certificates however I stated that would be an imperfect measurement to determine the winner of the bet as doctor's don't always record thing as they are supposed to, sometimes recording the actual disease but not the underlying cause and smoking as a prime example of that where it happened on a large scale.

Therefore using things mentioned on the death certificate would be a poor measure of who won or lost the bet as they are not always accurate - such as for smoking.

Nothing from that statement has been corrected. Death certificates are still an imperfect way of measuring cause of death, smoking is a prime example of that.

I hope to God that helps but as I say DM me if you need any further clarification.

 

no you originally said "They will use the symptom/disease that killed them and not guess at what caused that." that statement is wrong.

 

Smoking seems to be not be the norm looking at other causes such as alcohol and drug abuse