COVID-19

By the government's own figures - and despite rising testing in September - the peak day for new infections was September 7th if you put the positive tests under the date of sample donation instead of when it made it through the backlog to get processed in the lab. New cases look like they have been falling for 11 days yet we now get new lockdowns every time you turn around. What a clustercluck. Either SAGE don't know their onions or the top turkeys need a stuffing.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

 

Isn't that just lag again though?

There's no real other reason why they'd just randomly start to go down

 

Keep your eye on Twitter.

 

Land of Dopes and Tories, mate.

 

Clearly you voted Corbyn-Labour. Those in glass houses.................

 

Is it better or worse than a clusterfuck?

 

Look how weak our leader is! Whitty giving it to him it seems. Just hope Boris knows he needs to lead the country and not Whitty. Picture does show all isn't well. Look at Handcock's face.

14m people made a massive mistake. I think his own party will soon be getting Boris out.

 

Not going to happen tho is it. They’d be a general election and the conservatives would have their arses handed to them.
We are stuck with the prick and his clingers.

 

Not much social distancing going on there and not a bottle of sanitizer/face mask in sight at least there is only 6 of them in the room you would hope
Must be arguing over who's turn it is to make the tea !!!!

 

If you think the Tories have handled things badly be fortunate the Labour party are not in power,

 

They’ll ditch him, Johnson will be toxic after all this, Sunak will lead the Tories in to the next election, in my opinion.

 

I thank my lucky stars every day, we are truly blessed.

 

Rubbish statement mate.

I can't judge Labour or any other leader as guess what? They're not in change.

Come on you're better than this. People can only judge the person in charge now and guess what the Tories do hence why if Boris continues to be this bad he will be replaced by his party.

 

No. It's not just a lag. Logging by date of specimen is the truer trend of the 2. With big backlogs that are being cleared, logging by date of report is a distorted version. They are both poor, though.

The Pillar 2 data is not suitable for trend tracking because it keeps changing cohorts so much, as the link below shows. As with airport testing (because quarantined countries have higher infection rates), prioritising those with clinical need will crete a step change in the positives ratio. Clearing the backlog will increase positives for both by date of specimen and by date of reporting. One increases the positives ratio and one increases new cases after depressing it as the back log built through the summer. How long before these work their way through the Pillar 2 system? I don't know. Will it settle after that? Probably not - they keep changing cohorts! It's worrying that people keep trying to use Pillar 2 data for short-term trend tracking and (evidently) decision making.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18725379.nicola-sturgeon-concerned-delays-uk-coronavirus-testing-labs/

The infection survey is much better, though not as up-to-date.

 

I genuinely wish everyone would stop with the party political stuff.

There's no good way to handle a pandemic.

 

If in a weeks time September the 9th is still the peak date then I think we can draw that conclusion. But while they keep adding on positive to the dates inbetween we just don't know.

Like everything that anybody has tried to be positive about throughout this I doubt it will play out. The trend is clear and where we previously could cling onto the lack of hospital admission before that is also going the way it would be expected as well.

 

Well that's true.

Being slow, not using all the labs available, not doing as you say, not ruining the economy, not having enough tests and basically not being sh&t.

 

Several countries that have shown lower mortality levels in wave 2 in Western Europe (possibly as low as flu levels for a few) are showing big rises in new cases and rises in hit rates on testing. Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Germany and Luxembourg and maybe one or two others, which includes the UK. I think we will soon find out a lot more about whether falling mortality rates were seasonal, health care, young people, viral weakening or something else. I do hope mortality remains at the reduced summer levels. Whilst it makes it very harder to track the complexities, I hope talk of false positives from ordinary coronaviruses turns out to have some truth in it. There is growing evidence of a large spread of common colds of late, despite spacing and masks. It seems to be one of the reasons for the surge in demand for Covid tests. I think the interaction of a high number of colds with Covid biology and testing will be a theme in coming weeks. I hope we can make sense of it.