The Voice - Match preview Bradford City vs Accrington Stanley Tuesday 11th February 2025 7:45pm

EFL League Two Fixture #30
Tuesday 11th February 2025 19:45
Bradford City (4th) vs Accrington Stanley (20th)
University of Bradford Stadium (AKA Valley Parade)

Record:
Games Won: 7
Games Drawn: 5
Games Lost: 8

Last 5:
13 Oct 2018: Accrington Stanley 3 – 1 Bradford City
01 Jan 2019: Bradford City 3 – 0 Accrington Stanley
08 Aug 2023: Accrington Stanley 1 – 1 Bradford City [EFL Cup]
25 Nov 2023: Bradford City 1 – 0 Accrington Stanley
09 Mar 2024: Accrington Stanley 0 – 3 Bradford City

Accrington Stanley:
Another struggling side prepare to visit Valley Parade, this time in the form of 20th placed Accrington Stanley. The Lancashire side have shown a recent improvement in form with just 1 defeat in their last 4 league outings, a run in which they have faced 3 sides in the top 8. A 0-0 draw at home on Saturday afternoon against AFC Wimbledon is creditable, but the tactics employed by Stanley on home soil did little to endear themselves to AFC Wimbledon associates with London News Online describing the home sides’ tactics as ‘infuriating’.

The real story of the game is more likely to revolve around the fact that, between them, the two sides managed just 1 shot on target – and while that went to AFC Wimbledon, both sides had to settle for a point in a tie that lacked real attacking quality. If anything, Accrington Stanley might have even managed a smash and grab at the Wham Stadium when a 76th minute penalty appeal for handball was summarily dismissed, much to the home team’s chagrin.

Indeed Accrington’s recent mini-revival has largely revolved around tightening things up at the back. After conceded 7 goals in 2 games against Liverpool [FA Cup] and Notts County, Stanley have conceded just 2 goals in their last 4 outings, both coming in a 2-1 defeat at Port Vale. A 1-0 win over Crewe Alexandra and another 0-0 against Cheltenham Town show that Stanley have worked diligently to improve a defence that has already conceded 45 goals this season – over 1.5 goals per game. While a focus on defence invariably draws criticism from fans, Bradford City fans can attest to the fact that a clean sheet is an excellent platform for success. It’s getting the balance right and providing a real threat up top that Stanley seem to be struggling with lately.

The club’s top scorer Shaun Whalley (7) was retained during the January transfer window, as was midfielder Ben Woods (4), forward Tyler Walton (4), though loanee forward and second-highest scorer Dara Costelloe (5) was recalled by parent club Burnley and sent back out on loan to League One Northampton Town.

Beyond that, Stanley’s goal threat has been somewhat muted this campaign, and while a tally of 34 goals scored across 28 league games is better than anyone else in the bottom 7, goals have been more difficult to come by lately.

The January transfer window did bring a flurry of activity, however, with forwards Charlie Brown [Morecambe] and Charlie Caton [Chester City] signing for undisclosed fees, along with centre backs Benn Ward [Burnley] and Devon Matthews [Curzon Ashton]. Southampton’s 19 year old Irish midfielder Joe O’Brien-Whitmarsh joined on loan to round out the incomings, though only new defenders Ward and Matthews started against AFC Wimbledon as John Doolan’s men manfully adapted to a change in personnel.

In terms of xG, Accrington Stanley are currently underachieving slightly; their league position of 20th is a little below their 18th place position in the ‘xG’ table, but it’s in xGA that Stanley are doing even worse than expected. Sat 8th in the ‘xGA’ table, Stanley are conceding many more goals than the statistics would predict. That perhaps ties in with recent improved defensive performances, and ultimately that might be the facet of Accrington’s game that keeps them in the EFL.

Accrington Stanley 0 – 0 AFC Wimbledon


Port Vale 2 – 1 Accrington Stanley


Bradford City:
The quality contained within Bradford City’s 2nd minute opener against Harrogate Town promised more than it delivered, as City ground out a 1-0 win that saw a particularly disappointing second half performance. Ultimately, the points on the board are all that will matter in a few weeks’ time, but while the more pragmatic fans appreciated yet another victory (and one against a bit of a bogey side), there were grumblings on the terraces about the overall performance.

Perhaps it is that Bradford City have mirrored that same scoreline quite a bit lately against all of Carlisle United, Morecambe, and even Rotherham United [EFL Trophy], while losing by the same margin against rivals AFC Wimbledon, that has sparked a little discontent. With 7 wins from their last 8 games in all competitions, however, any doubts seem to be more of the ‘nagging’ variety than all-out rage. While every football fan wants their side scoring freely and attacking with real vigour, that’s not always how games get won: and this was, ultimately, another game won.

Bring on Accrington Stanley, then, in another home game at fortress Valley Parade. Now the joint-best home side in the division, another win will be predicted by most ‘in the know’ fans, but again, this might not be such an easy fixture. While Antoni Sarcevic took his season’s tally to 3 with an excellent header, the search for a second goal never really looked likely to bear fruit as City’s performance ultimately petered out in a dull second half. With Stanley enjoying something of a defensive resurgence, something similar might be expected once again.

The question now might be, have City lost some of their attacking momentum that saw them smash 3 past Walsall and Grimsby Town? If Accrington were to take the lead, how likely would City be to respond with a two goal salvo, particularly as they attempt to integrate attacking options from the bench that don’t seem to have quite settled just yet?

This is the balancing act that Graham Alexander will have to grapple with, but with little turnaround time ahead of another Tuesday evening encounter, the chances are increased that City will need to rest tired legs and make changes that would otherwise be deemed less than ideal. Graham Alexander spoke about withdrawing Calum Kavanagh at half time as a precaution and stated Kavanagh himself wanted to go back out. If that means he can start against Accrington Stanley on Tuesday evening, all the better for it! But if it means one of Tommy Leigh, Michael Mellon or Jamie Walker stepping in up front, none of those options would seem quite right at this particular junction – though those players could still prove doubters wrong in time.

All in all, then, there is an undeniable and very logical optimism around Valley Parade at the moment – but just one or two doubts about City’s attacking might at the moment. Is the absence of Andy Cook finally coming to roost, or can the likes of Sarcevic, Pattison, Pointon, and Kavanagh continue to step up and keep the points rolling in? That might just depend on how many of that quartet are actually deemed fit to start on Tuesday night, with Kavanagh a doubt and Pattison and Sarcevic regularly managed in terms of fitness lately.

Bradford City 1 – 0 Harrogate Town


AFC Wimbledon 1 – 0 Bradford City


Prediction:
In the previous column, it was suggested City ‘might run out 1-0 winners in another ‘just enough’ performance’, and that is exactly what happened. Having looked at Accrington Stanley’s current improved defensive efforts, it’s hard to avoid repeating that assessment, but a lot will depend on who is fit enough to start on Tuesday night. Without wanting to sound overly negative, any disruption to the front four of Kavanagh, Sarcevic, Pointon and Pattison would be most unwelcome; the four have combined beautifully of late, with all four putting a shift in and working hard for the team. All have also posed a consistent threat throughout City’s excellent recent run, and the newly acquired competition (while perfectly promising long term) haven’t quite produced the same levels when they’ve been put on. Should Kavanagh be deemed unfit and either Sarcevic or Pattison rested in light of their fitness struggles this season, it’s perfectly possible that would be enough to derail City somewhat.

If that were the case, the prediction would be a 0-0 draw. If, however, all four of those players are available (or at a push, three of them), then the pick would be another 1-0 win. Second guessing Graham Alexander at this point seems like an effort in futility, but there has to be a pick, so with full credit going to John Doolan and his men for successfully slowing games down and grinding out clean sheets, the pick will be a 0-0 draw.

The most welcome outcome would be a coming out party of sorts for any one of Michael Mellon, Tommy Leigh or Brandon Khela, but there just can’t be enough confidence in that for now. An outcome that could draw the ire of the Valley Parade crowd quite unfairly in the context of recent results, a 0-0 at home with Accrington Stanley would mean that pressure on the new boys to step up their impact would grow very quickly indeed. If they aren’t already busting a gut to reinforce the Bantams’ promotion push, they will need to do so promptly as there simply isn’t enough time for them to ‘bed in’ as the club chases automatic promotion.

Final Score:
Bradford City 0 – 0 Accrington Stanley