Match Thread Bradford City V Salford - Tue 23 January 2024 7.45pm

EFL LEAGUE TWO FIXTURE #21

Saturday 9th December 2023
Bradford City (14th) vs Salford City (18th)
University of Bradford Stadium (AKA Valley Parade)


22/23 Results:

22 Nov 2022: Salford City 1 – 0 Bradford City
01 Jan 2023: Bradford City 3 – 2 Salford City

Head-to-Head Form: WLWWL (most recent result first)

Won: 3
Drawn: 1
Lost: 5

Current League Form:

Bradford City: WWLLL
Salford City: DLLLD

SALFORD CITY

The former ‘glamour’ side of non-league thanks to their association with the Class of ’92 and a billionaire co-owner in Peter Lim (who is also the owner of Valencia CF), Salford City have fallen on harder times this season. Replaced by Wrexham as League Two’s media darlings, Salford City’s arbitrary loss of prestige has coincided with a loss of league form.

After 4 consecutive top half finishes in League Two, the only 4 seasons of league football in the club’s history, Salford City now find themselves sat in 18th place as we approach the midway point of the season. No wins in any of their last 6 league and cup games paints a picture of a side who are getting worse rather than better, although there is a caveat in that Salford have played sides in the top half in 8 of their last 9 league fixtures, including 4 of the current top 5 sides.

To say they’ve had a tough run of games would be an understatement.

The last time Salford City played a side sat outside the top half, they plundered all 3 points with a fine 3-0 win away at Doncaster Rovers, while they have also gained results at Crewe Alexandra (4-2 win), Swindon Town (2-2), Barrow (0-0), and Stockport County (0-0). While Salford City have been poor overall against the better sides, they haven’t been completely useless either. Indeed Tuesday’s nights’ goalless stalemate at Stockport County will be food for thought for Graham Alexander and a seemingly resurgent Bradford City.

At home, goals have hardly been in short supply for Salford City, and fans have been treated to at least 3 goals a game in their last 9 fixtures at Moor Lane. Away from home, it has been only slightly leaner. 0-0 draws at Stockport County and Barrow stand out as anomalous rather the norm, as a leaky Salford back line has conceded 18 goals in the 5 games sandwiched in between those fixtures. Gillingham rattled in 3 against the Ammies, while Peterborough United were held to a 2-2 draw in the FA Cup – with Salford City then drawing the reverse fixture 4-4, only to lose on penalties!

There is the potential here, then, for plenty of goals. With Bradford City coming into scoring form under their new manager, and with Salford City boasting one of the top attackers in the division this season in the form of 14-goal front man Matt Smith, there is a chance Salford City’s visit to Valley Parade is a fruitful one in terms of entertainment.

Smith, though, is far and away Salford’s biggest threat, the 34 year old 6’6 target man finding himself in similar form to that enjoyed by Andy Cook last year. Only back up striker Callum Hendry (3), midfielders Ryan Watson (3), Conor McAleny (2) and Kelly N’Mai (2) have scored more than 1 league goal – though Matty Lund, Curtis Tilt and Conor McLennan have both weighed in with multiple cup goals.

Matty Lund and Elliot Watt represent the two ex-Bradford contingent in the Salford City line up, though Watt, tracked by Ipswich Town prior to the Summer, is having a much quieter season this time around, having been one of the top assisters last season. In 11 league games, Watt is credited with just 1 assist. Compare that to a full 15 assists from 44 league appearances last term.

Having missed the last 2 games, it’s possible Elliot Watt will also be unavailable for selection at the weekend, with Salford City having named just 6 substitutes against MK Dons, then only 5 against Stockport County – certainly not a situation manager Neil Wood would hope to be in at such a crucial time ahead of a packed Christmas run in. That Salford City’s squad is so small is part of the explanation: quality over quantity may have been the aim of the game, but life in the EFL is also about strength in depth – something Salford City seem to lack.

BRADFORD CITY

It’s 4 wins in a row now for new manager Graham Alexander, though 2 of those fixtures took place in the EFL Trophy and another was against second bottom Forest Green Rovers. Still, results breed confidence, and winning games you should win isn’t something that always comes easily – as long-suffering Bantams fans will be the first to let you know!

It all began at Barnsley, who fell to a stunning 5-1 defeat at Valley Parade, before the Bantams followed up with a very credible 1-0 win over play off-chasing Accrington Stanley. The aforementioned Forest Green Rovers were dealt a 3-0 defeat on their own turf, before Liverpool U21’s turned up and were beaten soundly by 4-0. Tyler Smith in particular has enjoyed his time in the starting XI, netting 4 goals in those 4 games, while Andy Cook has helped himself to 3. That’s a great sign for a side that haven’t had a truly productive centre forward pairing since Nahki Wells and James Hanson fired them to promotion through the play offs a full 10 years ago.

Even better news for Bradford City came in the form of a goal from Vadaine Oliver following a lengthy spell in the treatment room, while Matty Platt has also (perhaps surprisingly) helped himself to a couple of goals lately.

But even for the most pessimistic fan who doesn’t want to take the games against Barnsley and Liverpool U21’s into account (and both had the feel of preseason friendlies about them), then how about this for a stat: 3 clean sheets in a row, including 2 in their last couple of league games. Not only are things starting to come together in terms of attacking prowess, but there’s also been an improvement at the back – at least statistically speaking.

That defensive record will be tested on Saturday afternoon, though, against one of the division’s best strikers. Matt Smith hasn’t helped himself to 14 league goals by accident, the 6’6 giant has used a combination of size and power to overwhelm centre backs. Matt Smith put on a masterclass in a 3-0 away win over Doncaster Rovers, scoring a hat trick consisting of 2 headers and a close-range finish. The City centre backs, as well as Harry Lewis, will have to be on top form to contain the big man.

With all that said, there is still the lingering possibility of a 0-0 draw, such as Salford City achieved at Stockport County and Barrow – but with City fans expecting more and more from their centre forwards as the weeks go by, all eyes will be on Andy Cook, Tyler Smith, and even Vadaine Oliver to prevent that from happening!

 

THE BREAKDOWN

17/20: Bradford City
5/2: Draw
3/1: Salford City

While Salford City’s form is hampered by an unusually tough run of fixtures, Bradford City have benefitted from an easier spell – at least on paper. That appears to have led to odds that significantly favour the home side, whereas the game to come may be closer than the oddsmakers expect.

Bradford City have yet to put down a true marker in terms of quality wins, but the improvement in results remains undeniable. Victory over Salford City, despite their lowly league position, would be yet another step in the right direction and a huge morale boost for both the manager and his players.

By taking the EFL trophy seriously, Graham Alexander has seen his side net 9 goals in 2 cup games and win the pair of league fixtures sandwiched in between. Not only that, but Alexander has managed to rekindle a sense of positivity among the Bradford City fan base, as the anger directed at the running of the club seems to have been tempered ever-so-slightly. Of course, disenchantment is often only a defeat away in football, but for now, City are riding the crest of a wave the fans must hope will see them clawing themselves ever closer to the play-off picture.

While Salford won’t make for an easy game, there’s little to suggest that Salford City themselves are about to break out the champagne football. Graham Alexander’s old side, headed by the same Gary Neville who was previously forced to admit his regret at letting their former gaffer go, will look to be a side Bradford City are playing at just the right time.

On the other hand, Neil Wood will be looking at Bradford City – quite rightly – in the same vein. After struggling to beat many of the teams in the top half, they now find themselves toe-to-toe with a side in the bottom half – and last time that happened, Salford ran out 3-0 winners courtesy of the aforementioned Matt Smith masterclass.

Expect crosses to come in fast and often and expect Smith to look to get his head on as many of them as possible. While Ciaran Kelly, Ash Taylor, Sam Stubbs and Matty Platt have all looked increasingly confident in a succession of back 3 configurations with vastly simplified tactics (no more Hughes-ball relying on City playing out from the back), Smith has proven head and shoulders above the next-best striker they’ve played against in their 4-game run of wins. He will be their biggest test since at least the 4-2 defeat at Notts County.

But without Smith, there really hasn’t been too much on display for Salford City in an attacking sense. Yes, eyes will be on Matty Lund should he make an appearance, and Bantams fans will likely be happier if Elliot Watt is unavailable for selection, but there’s no question who Salford’s main goal-getter is. That’s a story that was all-too-familiar for Bradford City last season, but less so this campaign.

While Andy Cook has helped himself to another 9 goals across all competitions this season, his form hasn’t been quite as hot as it was last year; but with Tyler Smith having already netted 9 goals himself (mostly in the EFL Trophy, mind), and Jamie Walker (5) and Alex Gilliead (3) chipping in, City are starting to show signs of finding their rhythm. On that basis, I will look for the basic form guide to continue weaving familiar patterns, until one side or the other finally breaks the mould. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen this Saturday at Valley Parade.

PREDICTION:

Bradford City 3 – 1 Salford City