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Match Thread Away v Port Vale Sat 13th November @ 12.00pm

Discussion in 'City Talk' started by Ulysses S Grant, Nov 9, 2021.

  1. banbrotam

    banbrotam Impact Sub

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    Not necessarily. Players that miss pre-seasons for whatever reason, i.e. Robinson, Lavery rarely come back cooking on gas. Same thing happened with Garry Thompson, who was seen as rubbish in November 2012, 4 months into his VP career.

    Several England players have looked undercooked this season. That's clearly the results of continuous footie for 15 months of so, i.e. even they can't buck the trend of physical fitness leads to match fitness leads to mental fitness leads to better match execution.

    So you simply can't assume that the past dictates the future, in some linear pessimistic manner


    But it's not "based on the entire season". That is unless we're going to be playing Vale, Exeter, Swindon and Newport away from home again?? Incidentally, these are five clubs expected to be challenging and yet we're unbeaten away from home again them - yet you've written off the entire season, even though we're points within all of them.

    Explain, who who we've played and where and the increase in squad availability - means we'll definitely "NOT going up"


    That's like me saying we're not going down "even if it's still possible". i.e. it's irrelevant one-third of the way through the season
     
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  2. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    I believe it does a little more than that, doesn't it give detailed information if the players condition through out the game heat rate, distance covered etc, I believe they can get all that information from the divice they wear across their chest.
     
  3. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    And ironically still a couple of wins away from axplay off place.
     
  4. Botswana Bantam

    Botswana Bantam Regular Starter
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    Yes, but we need to win some otherwise everyone will keep moving away. Hence my post earlier on this months games.

    And even when we with, others will win!

    We're playing catch up now Broncs.
     
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  5. banbrotam

    banbrotam Impact Sub

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    Adams had a worse run (points ratio wise) with Morecambe this time last year, when he got just 10 points from 11 matches. Spookily, that included another no show at Crawley - when they lost 4-0.

    https://www.worldfootball.net/teams/morecambe-fc/2021/3/

    Nothing is decided in November, especially when you consider our tough opening away spell (i.e. we've played four out of the five games available, against the top seven away from home)

    I realise, there is a desperation to get out of this division, but the number of "we're doomed, we're doomed" comments are getting to be a par on the relegation season.

    We've got a manager who has a 100% promotion record, in terms of time served at clubs. If he's still confident, i.e. not even saying he needs to strengthen in January (which of course he will), the rest of us should be.
     
    #445 banbrotam, Nov 14, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2021
  6. Botswana Bantam

    Botswana Bantam Regular Starter
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    There's no desperation on my part. Our Chief Executive has said promotion is the aim.

    2 wins in the last 15 games is not promotion form.

    3 games in November. Let's see how those go. Feels like we need at least 6 points.
     
  7. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    We are playing catch up and although its not gone as most fans and the club would have wanted we're not out of it by any means, if we can keep the likes Angol, Eisa, and Cook fit add Robinson and Lavery to those players possibly adding a couple in January and IMO were far from out of it.
     
  8. Inspector

    Inspector Squad Player
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    The best cross into the box came from a left back playing right back. I hope Gilliead was taking note.
     
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  9. Ulysses S Grant

    Ulysses S Grant Squad Player
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    Jesus had a better cross on him than Gilliead
     
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    Budgie and JudgeMental like this.
  10. Tight1-0Victory

    Tight1-0Victory Fringe Player

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    The passion you lot have is great to see you obviously all want us to get promoted and think it's possible fair play but all the good will in the world isn't changing the fact that this squad doesn't have the cutting edge look at our attackers Vernam is awful at finishing Gilliead should have a TV show can't score won't score Cooke is the most creative player in the division but it counts for nothing when those chances go to our wingers and he himself is just another player who can't score goals

    Angol and Cook can score which itself makes a joke of the idea we are one striker away from scoring bucket loads no we're not because all the chances go to the attacking midfielders and wingers week after week I have seen it so many times this season that I'm sorry you just can't deny it

    I like our midfield with Watt and Sutton I think it's capable against anyone and I have said so time and again so don't call me defeatist I told you what I thought before the Vale game I said we won't get thrashed we have every chance of winning but we won't because we can't finish for toffee the players are just plain bad at it and all the training in the next few months won't change that I'm afraid these are players that are already developed and at their peak performance

    Sorry if I upset you but calls for one defender and one striker will not address the problem because the problem is outside of set pieces and the one or two chances an Angol or Cook (or Robinson I suppose) get, we are wasting double figures chances nearly every game with such consistency any idiot like me can see it AINT GONNA IMPROVE

    Pinning hopes on January is typical City fan behaviour yet when did it ever make a difference even last season we brought in 8 players or something silly and where did it get us nowhere is Cook the only player still around lol come on guys it's not negativity to admit our faults
     
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  11. NorthernMonkey

    NorthernMonkey Squad Player
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    Because if you have 50 attempts at goal every game you're absolutely going to win more games than having 1 attempt every game in the long run.
     
  12. NorthernMonkey

    NorthernMonkey Squad Player
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    The only place Gillead should be making notes from is the stand.

    The bloke is the single biggest fraud since Will Atkinson was a regular.
     
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  13. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    I say we will finish in a play off place do you fancy a £10 Burns Unit or Darby Rimmer MND Foundation, you chose which when you pay up, are you prepared to back you opinion/claim up with cash ?.
     
  14. Bigrod

    Bigrod Captain
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    Here you go.

    The most simplistic plain-English definition of xG is the chance any given shot had in becoming a goal, hence the name expected goals. To take it a step further, xG is the percentage value assigned to an attempt at goal adjusted for situational factors, and it ranges from 0 (unlikely to be a goal) to .99 (absolutely should be a goal).
    As example, let’s use an oversimplified situation — a tap in to an empty net from 2 yards out without any pressure has an xG value around .95. Conversely, a shot from outside the 18-yard box with a few defenders (and a goalkeeper) in the path of the shot has an xG somewhere around .01 and .05 depending on the exact positioning of the players involved in that attempt on goal.

    xG can be ascribed to an individual player or a whole team. By summing up to the total xG of each individual attempt on goal we get to the Team xG — the numerical value that indicates the total number of goals that a given team was expected to score.

    Assuming the two examples above make up the entirety of Team A’s attempts on goal for a given match we can expect their xG to be right around 1. An oversimplified way to interpret that number is to consider it “fair” if Team A actually do end up scoring 1 goal, whether as part of a win, loss or tie. If they fail to score at all, we can safely conclude that someone royally bungled up a goal on the platter and the result may be somewhat unjust. Conversely, if Team A ends up scoring 2 goals, well, good for them on this occasion, but they were “lucky” in a statistical sense and their performance could be difficult to sustain or replicate in the future.”


    Full article at, https://fansided.com/2020/03/03/stat-explainer-xg-what-is-expected-goals-why-does-it-matter/
     
  15. Bantam-in-Greece

    Bantam-in-Greece Squad Player
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    Ha ha, thanks for that Bigrod! - Wonder who the hell thought of all that :joy::joy:
     
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  16. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Regular Starter
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    Some good comments that are based on actual facts from this season as opposed to people quoting we could be doing this or that. As it currently stands we are not good enough for promotion, our current standing sees us 4 points from the playoffs. We can quote whatever stats we want or bang on about what Adams did at Morecambe but league position is the most important stat of all. And if we don't start winning, as Botswana alluded to, we ain't going up this season.
     
  17. Keefly Bantam

    Keefly Bantam Important Player
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    I share your frustration RT because we are capable of beating most teams in this league but due to poor individual errors in every game we sit mid table.

    It doesn't help that we haven't been able to field a settled side for a while now however that cannot be used as an excuse.

    I would say we are 3 decent players and a really short injury list off being auto promotion material.
     
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  18. JonButterfield

    JonButterfield Star Player
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    Is it my imagination or have we been doing better against the better sides?

    Perhaps it's because we're not a possession-based team, and those teams will give us space to break and attack at pace. They play with confidence, as we saw with Port Vale. The game was super open and either team could have won.

    But it doesn't help that so many games are finishing 1-1, whether it's a side at the bottom sitting back and not falling into our traps or decent teams playing us at our own game. 4 successive 1-1 draws, and 6 draws from the last 8 in all competitions.

    I can see why people are looking at that and thinking that we're close to going on a run of form, but the draws aren't uniform. While we drew with a top side yesterday, which is decent, we also drew with Exeter in the cup and they were not decent.

    It doesn't mean anything that teams are saying we look good and will be up there, all that matters is results, and if we keep drawing we will slide DOWN the table, not up.
     
  19. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Regular Starter
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    From what I've seen so far this season there isn't one standout side in the division. And that includes us. We do have a good shape to us and at times do look capable of mounting a decent run. But a defence that has 3 clean sheets on 21 simply will not get you promotion unless you have a front six that has goals in it, which we simply don't have based on what we've seen. The positive thing is we aren't far off from having that side but to balance that so do a lot of teams. I'd say we are minimum 2 players away from having that side but it depends which way Derek decides to go. Eisa coming back maybe one of them, we certainly lack goals from midfield, we're more likely to get a goal from the back four. I think if we fix the lack of chance conversions then the defence problem takes care of itself. We could do with another centre back but its not a priority. What is, is a replacement for Crankshaw which has to be an improvement on what we currently have. And someone who can convert the chances that the likes of Cooke keep creating.
     
  20. Dubois

    Dubois Squad Player
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    I'm trying to keep positive about our prospects for the season but if Gilliead's failure to play in Robinson yesterday doesn't get him dropped nothing ever will.
     
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