World war 3....

The combined economic strength of the NATO counties utterly dwarfs that of Russia. The Russian economy is about the size of Holland and Belgium combined - around 10% of the EU's GDP; and then you add the US and the UK into the mix. The West can continue to support Ukraine for far longer than Russia can afford to keep draining its resources on this war.

Russia will never control Ukraine. Their only chance was a swift takeover of Kiev, at which they failed dismally. Taking territorial control of the second largest country in Europe and then subjugating a population of over 41 million, who will fight them all the way and never give up, is an impossible task. This is why Putin's war aims have changed from total control to creating a Black sea corridor from Donbas to Crimea.
Defending the Russian homeland in WWE was one thing. Fighting an offensive war to capture and subjugate the whole of Ukraine is a different order of thing entirely. It couldn't do it in Afghanistan and it won't do it in Ukraine.
Russia will be bogged down in fighting in Eastern Ukraine for years, all the while the West will have ended it's dependency on Russian oil & gas and maintained its damaging economic sanctions. It's a no win for Russia.

 

From the Telegraph:

"Financial contracts will be priced in the weaker offshore exchange rate after the local rate was artificially inflated by capital controls which were installed by the central bank to stop money rushing for the exit.
Capital controls, measures to stop money leaving the country, have helped the rouble rebound rapidly after it crashed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. After halving in value against the dollar in the first weeks of the war, the rouble has clawed back all of its losses.

Scope Ratings analyst Levon Kameryan said the rouble’s “fortunes are increasingly disconnected from the health of the Russian economy”.

He said the recovery in the currency can be explained by inflows of money for energy and the central bank’s capital controls and higher interest rates.

“Efforts of the Central Bank of Russia to prevent capital flight through capital controls and higher interest rates, while they are working for now, come at a cost of tighter financial conditions,” Mr Kameryan said.

“We project Russia’s economic output to contract by at least 10pc this year, the steepest decline since 1994, and stagnate in 2023, knocking the economy back to levels last seen on the eve of the global financial crisis of 2008.”

On Monday, the Russian finance ministry admitted the country is facing a 12pc plunge in GDP this year, the largest slump since 1994 when its economy was adjusting to capitalism following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

New figures from the Kremlin on Wednesday suggested that Russian inflation eased for a second consecutive week as household demand is squeezed.

Prices increased by just 0.1pc in the seven days to May 6, levels not seen since early January, according to the country’s statistician. However, Moscow said the inflation rate is at 18pc compared to a year earlier.

It came as economists warned that imports into the country almost halved in March and will collapse further as it heads into recession."

As I suspected, the Rouble is temporarily high due to being artificially propped up by the central bank. This bears no relationship to the health of the Russian economy, which is anything but 'thriving more than it ever has'.

 

The worry is that the more pressure we put on Russia the more desperate they will get and may resort to striking back at the west with nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, The new Russian Satan 2 ballistic hyper missile makes a first strike a feasible option that has previously not been available because of the time missiles would take to arrive but Satan 2 changes that hitting the USA in only 150 seconds from launch giving no time to launch back. The only deterrence would be the Nuclear missiles on submarines which could hit back if not hit, It will not happen but if you push a madman he will do mad things

 

They won't use nuclear weapons.

 

Agreed it would mean their certain demise, Putin maybe crazy enough but he doesn’t sit behind a big desk with a big red button. Actually other human beings would have to carry out the order and know the consequences of such actions more chance of someone putting a bullet through his head than that.

 

Why the wait?

 

Reminds me of the pre war statement peace in our time. That went well

 

I'll have a burns unit bet with you that they don't use nuclear weapons. if I lose we'll all be dead anyway.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61461805?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6283594a01eea2774308ee62&Retired colonel gives rare realistic analysis on Russian TV&2022-05-17T09:26:32.329Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:6364fc89-c73a-4566-91e3-3cd4b406a359&pinned_post_asset_id=6283594a01eea2774308ee62&pinned_post_type=share

A rare piece of realism on primetime Russian state TV. As the article asks, is this an 'off message' individual or start of preparing the population for increasingly bad news?

 

What bad news are you referring to?

The “Ukraine are winning” tripe that the western media are claiming?

Incase you haven’t realised, Ukraine surrendered Mariupol today. Of course our media aren’t reporting it like that though

 

Yes, I know that Mariupol has fallen. But it's about the only area where they are winning. They failed dismally around Kiev; they have been pushed back to the Russian border near Kharkiv and their offensive in Donbas has stalled, with reports of large casualties and loss of tanks and other ordnance.

Other than using nukes, which would have cataclysmic consequences, there's no way that Russia can win this war. Western military aid to Ukraine dwarfs Russian capability.

I'm guessing you didn't read the link I posted above. Here's another report of the Russian general talking realism on Russian state TV:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-state-tv-finally-admits-26988068

And here's the relevant part from the link I shared in my previous post:

Retired colonel gives rare realistic analysis on Russian TV

Steve Rosenberg

BBC Russia editor

It was an extraordinary piece of television.

60 Minutes is the flagship talk show on Russian state TV: studio discussion promoting the Kremlin line in everything, including President Putin’s so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine. The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan.

But studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture.

He warned that “the situation [for Russia] will clearly get worse” as Ukraine receives additional military assistance from the West and that “the Ukrainian army can arm a million people”.

Referring to Ukrainian soldiers, he noted that “the desire to defend their motherland very much exists".

"Ultimate victory on the battlefield is determined by the high morale of troops who are spilling blood for the ideas they are ready to fight for.”

“The biggest problem with [Russia’s] military and political situation”, he continued, “is that we are in total political isolation and the whole world is against us, even if we don’t want to admit it. We need to resolve this situation.”

“The situation cannot be considered normal when against us is a coalition of 42 countries and when our resources, military-political and military-technical, are limited.”

The other guests in the studio were silent; even the host, Olga Skabeyeva, normally fierce and vocal in her defence of the Kremlin, appeared unusually subdued.

It’s rare to hear such realistic analysis on Russian TV. The Kremlin has gone out its way to control the informational landscape here: shutting down independent Russian news sources, and ensuring that television – the principal tool in Russia for shaping public opinion - is on message.

So, what happened on 60 Minutes? Was this a spontaneous and unexpected wake-up call on Ukraine that slipped through the net? Was it pre-planned to prepare Russians for negative news on the "special military operation"?

It’s too early to say. Stay tuned to Russian TV for further signals.

 

Lol are you arguing for the sake of it, or do you feel you're in too deep with the 'Russia can't be losing' aspect of this conflict?

Either way, you could just reassess your interpretation of how 'well' Russia are doing in terms of the economy OR the war.

Nobody would think less of you, I'm sure.

 

To suggest Russia is losing is ridiculous and hilarious.

It's our economy that is struggling, British people that are as skint as ever due to the huge hike in energy costs as a direct result of this conflict, and our supermarkets that are suffering with shortages.

Despite earlier predictions on our biased media, Russian folk are better off and the Russian economy is thriving at present. All the while over here we're choosing between keeping warm or feeding our children.

It's almost comical that @Offcomedun and many others believe everything the western media tell him/her. To the (correct) suggestion that the Kremlin are dictating what the Russian people are seeing on the news - wake up - that is EXACTLY what is happening on our screens too! Literally the exact same, it's just contrasting viewpoints, how can you not see that?

In Ukraine it's starvation, living in bomb shelters, borderline famine, unable to play their Sports, yet they're winning the war are they? Zenit just won the Russian league title this weekend, in a country where everything is normal, by the way.

It's almost beyond belief how @JonButterfield et al cannot see the bigger picture. I feel sorry for you guys a bit, you must be gullible and susceptible to anything.

 

It's like you're talking about yourself. Living standards were lower in Russia even prior to the invasion

 

But here's the thing.

It's like you're railing against the narrative you're hearing around you, and even on here, and saying "that's not right, that's not what I'm seeing".

But what you're ACTUALLY doing is saying "The West is losing because prices in the supermarkets are going up and energy costs, etc", while ALL OF THOSE THINGS are true, and WORSE, in Russia right now. You're using the basis that things are bad here, to say that things must be better there.

You did it with the conflict when you spoke about the fall of Mariupol - how can Russia be losing, because they've claimed Mariupol. But Russia has withdrawn from Kyiv (ie, lost), they have withdrawn from Kharkiv (ie, lost), and they failed to encircle the entire East (ie, lost).

Are Russia absolutely, categorically 'losing' the war? No, of course they're not. Nobody is losing the war, but nobody is winning anything, either. It's a farce, a poorly conceived, badly executed farce.

The reason people talk about Ukraine as if they're 'winning' is because Russia continue to fail objectives and reduce their plans. Russia have pulled their spies, the FSB, out of Ukraine for fear that they were undermining their activities. Putin has continually been undermined by someone, somewhere, so often, to the point he couldn't even 'seal up Azovstal metalworks', and the very next day the plan was changed entirely without his say-so. Putin is now, according to 'sources' (I know, I know, bear with me) started getting involved hands-on at a very low, military-oriented level. The man is not a military genius, he is a former spy and an oligarch.

All of these are huge red flags to everyone in the world, forming this narrative of continual failure for Russia, which implies that Ukraine must be winning.

The facts are the facts, though, experts are now openly discussing FOR THE FIRST TIME, that Russia could lose this war. Losing this war would consist of being repelled back beyond the border with little or no territorial gain. Bear in mind they already supposedly had Crimea, and they already supposedly made the Donbas 'independent'.

You can sit there and say it's ridiculous, it's this, it's that, because you don't feel the same way, but the one thing that is absolutely silly is to pretend Russia's economy isn't tanking far worse than in any Western country just because Russia have propped up their currency with a serious of ludicrous measures that are completely crippling, cannot possibly last long term, and that you would consider ruinous if you think supermarket shelves and high energy prices are the disaster you're making out.

Get this: Russians can't even sell the Ruble for another currency. They can't trade their stocks, and that's because the vast majority of stocks in Russian assets are owned by people OUTSIDE of Russia (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-moex-idUSKBN2EZ1XU), and they're going to dump them the first chance they get, and THEN you'll see how strong the Russian economy is.

Because the answer is, the Russian economy is in the toilet, it's just that they've temporarily disabled the flush mechanism - but you can't have 17 % interest rates for long. Ours is on the way 1 %, by the way, and you're feeling the pinch....

 

The difference is that western media is multifaceted and independent. We have various newspapers of very different political persuasions and viewpoints, plus several TV stations, none of them state controlled. Some of them are usually very skeptical about our government's line on anything. Many of them have people on the ground in Ukraine witnessing what's happening. And that is repeated in various other countries. Unlike in Russia, where all the news is tightly controlled by government.

Yes, of course there are many deprivations in Ukraine at present. They've just been invaded by a hostile larger neighbour. But the military situation is going very badly for Russia, everywhere except the Black Sea and the continued military support from Western countries will eventually turn the tide even there.

You're in Dreamland if you think the Russian economy is thriving. The Rouble is being propped up artificially by the central bank. Numerous international forecasts expect the economy to contract significantly over the next year. These forecasters aren't influenced by government propaganda from East or West- they deal in hard nosed international financial realities.
Yes, there is a Russian balance of payments surplus at present, because many other countries have stopped exporting to Russia. But that will damage the economy in the medium term because Russia relies heavily on importing western technological components.
All the while the western countries are starting to wean themselves off Russian gas and oil. Once that gathers pace their main source of revenue will drastically diminish.

You sound as though you actually want Russia to win the war. To benefit from illegally invading another independent sovereign state, killing it's population, damaging it's economy, flattening it's cities and illegally annexing sections of its territory. Why do you want that?

 

Wait... didnt you think brexit was a good thing and now youre peddling russian propaganda? Suspicious.

 

Ive only just read some of the posts on here today for the first time.

Its interesting to see the leanings and views of people being almost symmetrical with the leanings on one of our other divisive threads.

Just goes to show how personality types impact politics. You get the paranoid, fact less lot like trevor and bantamlad who think russia are strong, they believe the kremlin propaganda and think the west is perpetrating a ruse. And then you get the pragmatic like ones who realise the threat russia poses but also can see the data at hand and make an analysis based on those facts.

The same people who are saying russia is winning and will nuke us are the ones who still to this day vehemently oppose any discourse on brexit. Its really interesting actually.

 

I think there's a contrarian mentality out there that's more focussed on being proved right than wanting Russia to win. I've seen identical arguments elsewhere that all is fine and dandy for Russia, when actually it's a nightmare.

But there are contrarians everywhere, addressing everything.

I saw a dude on Twitter, a real dude, under his real name, suggesting what happened to Billy Sharp last night wasn't that bad, and until he proves he's had stitches, he'll think it's a load of overblown nonsense.

Imagine that!

It's the same thing; until you see Russians crying because they can't buy sugar (which you'll NEVER see), then no amount of words on the internet will change a mindset that for some weird reason has already been set in stone. Same as that guy won't change his mind until he sees Sharp getting sewn up - WHY do they need to see that? To prove it's bad enough for them to give a toss about, I guess.

 

Further to your post @Offcomedun looks like the Russian people will get a watered down version of how well (not) the war in the Ukriane is not going.
Russia media preparing nation for ‘bad news' as Putin fails to make promised gains (msn.com)

Russian media has issued content revealing the weakened morale and low success of the Russian military in Ukraine. In a shocking shift of perspective, the usually propaganda-ridden Russian media has declared Putin may only be able to achieve "limited" success in Ukraine as the country's western allies rush to its defence. BBC's Russia Editor Steve Rosenburg reported a drastic shift in Russian media publication and broadcast as the failures of the Russian invasion begin to be exposed to the population.

Typical western propaganda