Today ....... WOAP

You simply don't understand how odds are compiled.

It isn't based on likelihood of an outcome, it's based on likelihood of bets being placed.

"Odds compiling was more about knowing the punters and their habits than the actual percentage probability of outcomes. Even now this particular area is the difference between bookmaking and punting. Bookmakers have to anticipate money flow whereas the punter has to determine the probability of outcomes and find value."

https://medium.com/@TrademateSports/how-bookmakers-create-their-odds-from-a-former-odds-compiler-5b36b4937439

 

We'll can't be like you. Achieving the walk of shame every weekend.

 

Oh I do.

The odds are complied like that during a season.

 

They're compiled like that before the season starts. That's a fact, not an opinion.

 

If it's based on fan base then Man Utd would of been favs for the PL before a ball was kicked.

It's not a fact. During the season I agree.

 

To be honest ever since McCall was sacked, the club has been crying out for a bit of positivity. Not long after Bowyer's appointment, you could tell we had instilled some proffesionalism, structure and also a bit of warmth back . The club was in a right mess before this, so you've got to give him some credit for that.

I know it's not been great at times football wise, but the guy has a track record and we just need to be patient. He's taken a good look at the team and seen what areas need focussing on and aside from being a bit short in midfield, I think he's done a good job recruitment wise.

He wasnt kidding when he said it was going to take time. We're not going to smash up this league and we've got to be patient. If he gets it right with us, then who knows where we can go. I really believe the potential is there once we get on a roll and we have the right man at the helm.

 

Why? Did many Man Utd fans think they would win the Premier League this season?

Fans don't just mindlessly back their own team to win. Again, it's about predicting what fans will actually be willing to bet on. Man Utd fans would never back their side to win the PL if the odds were short. They might if the odds are much longer, just on the off-chance.

Again, the odds are based on the likelihood of people placing bets. It should never be mistaken as the overall likelihood of an outcome.

 

Spot on for me, this.

Morecambe is the first time this season I've seriously thought we might smash a few past a side - and I hope that happens, to add a little more positivity to the team and fanbase. Most games have been hard-fought and fairly close affairs - and I expect that will continue for some time.

The criticism until recently was we had got some results without performing 'well' - I have a sneaking suspicion that criticism might reoccur throughout the season, but what matters is that we're in the top seven at the business end of the season.

 

£1 bids etc.

Look, we were favourites for a number of reasons:

Fan base
League 1 team coming down
Players we had
Bowyer
Owners wealth
Been there and done it
Players attraction to the club.
Stadium
Ex PL club
Club that's failing and shouldn't be in this position.

 

Last season we were the worst team in the league.
Had last seasons team played in this division we would now be the Conference
If you want to benchmark this, watch our performance against Aldershot (relegated from the conference)
The top half of L2 is not much worse then L1 despite noise around it being a “dog & duck league” - look at how promoted teams do in L1 V relegated teams to L2.
Compare our start to the other relegated teams
When you look at statistics, GB is doing a great job of rebuilding a Brocken club.......
A message to @Fordy117, happy clap and enjoy the ride!!
I honestly believe we will be promoted this season, To quote the Jungle book, accentuate the positives, forget about the negatives

 

I've forgot the negatives it's @JonButterfield and others bashing on about last season. last season is done. It's up to Bowyer and Rupp to prove their worth now.

 

@Meltham Massive nailed it.

The reason we were favourites is because of our fan base, a relegated club, the perceived wealth of the club, and a bunch of assumptions about the squad we might assemble.

What I'm saying is, those assumptions don't amount to a prediction of likely outcomes by the bookmakers - just a prediction that bettors would be attracted to us for those reasons.

Trying to use the betting odds as an indication of where we're likely to finish is simple herd mentality - because you're just following the predicted opinion of the majority. Might I add, Scunthorpe were third favourites to win the title this season for many of those reasons.

 

Correct.

But don't get all hung up on Bowyer and Rupp, mate, there are a few other important people who might have an impact on our season.

You know, the players?

Anyway, I think we'll definitely be top seven, I think we've a good shot at top three, and that's outstanding considering where we were last season. Well done Bowyer and Rupp (and the players) [so far].

 

My aim and the clubs aim should be top 3.

Name 3 better sides or sides that should be in the automatic places?

Not wanting the risk of the play offs. Automatic is the aim anything less is failure.

 

I can't name three 'better' sides as I haven't seen them all, but people looking for value mentioned Crewe a long time ago. They don't have name players, but they do have good players. I'm surprised by Forest Green succeeding based on their defence and spoiler tactics, but you can earn promotion on a defence. I think they'll drop, but credit where it's due. People were peeing their pants about Swindon, but they looked very average, and I think they'll be midtable come the end of the season. Exeter, like Crewe, look to have a real chance, I'm not 100 % sure about Cheltenham, Newport have been a good League Two team for some time, arguably distracted by cup runs in recent seasons, so perhaps Flynn will get them promoted, Colchester will definitely be up there in my opinion (though they had a mediocre start), and there's a few others that should improve.

Plymouth, Scunthorpe, Walsall and Salford should all be doing better than they currently are, whether that's enough to put them in the higher echelons is another matter - almost certainly not for Scunthorpe, but I wouldn't be surprise if they troubled the top half at the end of the season.

It's not about 'better sides', it's about competition - and while people decry this division, actually, in terms of competitiveness it blows the others out of the water.

There really aren't any easy games, everyone is pretty even give or take a couple, and the way to get promoted is consistency - which ultimately, is not in the hands of Bowyer or Rupp. It's in the hands of the players.

Anyway, really enjoyed chatting with you tonight, Fordy.

 

I always enjoy chatting to you mate and this is a great post.

Look of course i feel our club is great and maybe I need to lower my expectations but honestly I do believe we need to set the target high for the good of the club.

Ross sacked by Sunderland and if Lambert & Ipswich were in Sunderland position he would of gone as well.

We're a big club in this division and as soon as you make excuses or lower expectations then you just become a middle of the road club that stands for nothing. Look at Man Utd now! You have the free ticket ex players making excuses for Ole and the club. It's embarrassing! Ole has gone from talking about top 4 now to top 6 when in truth he should be talking about top spot of at least being the better than Man City! Utd fans need a better manager and should be aiming higher. Not facing a relegation battle.

I think the league is weak. I think we will be top 3. I think the club are confident of it also. You don't let a player like Doyle go to a div 2 club if you're not confident of going up yourself.

Crewe, Forrest Green etc are no different to Swindon and these clubs are average.

I see no reason mate for us not being top 3 and I am known as Mr Negative on here!

 

This is just weird mate. Why bother dragging your ass to VP if you aren’t going to smile when we win? Even in games you expect us to win, surely the fact that we did should put a smile on your face? To suggest you didn’t have a smile after that win is just strange.

I know you seem to have a rep on here for being negative, but even this is a new level for you.

 

I know i read them. You're not the only one that does it, there are a large number of fans that do the same, myself included to some degree. i think Saturday may turn out to be a turning point for Bowyer, first time i can remember for a long time we actually looked dominant and it was Bowyers preferred formation. The crowds reaction tells you all you need to know.

 

We did our job which I fully expected us too.

Come May if we're in the top 3 then you will see the biggest smile on my face.

Beating Swindon is great but we haven't achieved anything as yet and until we're firmly placed in the top 3 then I won't be happy.

 

That's out of order.