Staying Up?

Posted from work though not still right address...

But thank you.

 

Ive chucked £20 quid on us to finish top half. 14/1 is a fair price. We are 11 points short at the moment but, Feb aside, we have a good run of games (particularly the last month of the season) where we have good opportunities to put together winning sequences.

Not lucky enough to have a Sky Bet account but would have backed us to stay up if I had (or if anyone else offered the market). Keeping the loan players will be important but at the price you take a chance.

 

It's listed your home address (?) on your post for some reason

 

18-1 for a top half finish sounds great!

Or am I just being an idiot because we beat one team quite handily...?

 

20/1 at BetVictor.

Not for me, it's a punt for sure but a little rich for my liking.

I think the best market value of 21/10 to stay up is a fair price.

 

Huge punt - but by the time it becomes clear we have a chance...

I think it's unlikely, but for a small stake I've seen worse bets.

 

Definitely. The only issue is getting a bet on as only Sky offer the market and are one of the worst out there are limiting stakes/closing accounts.

They also have markets for us to finish above Wimbledon in a match bet (11/8) or higher than Scunthorpe (7/4) or Bristol Rovers. All I could get was £1.13 so there just isn’t any point me bothering. I’d love to back all three match bets and us to stay up!

 

Have tried to lay us on Betfair for relegation at 1.54, which is sinilar to backing us to stay up at just under 2/1, but none of it is getting matched :-(

 

So far not too many issues with Skybet restricting my account. As for Betshit365 , laddies and betway....all restricted, thus I closed em.

Very interested in the match up with Wimbledon. 11/8 is a very fair price.

 

Hi mate who is the 14/1 price with?
Thanks

 

In 98/99 I had something daft like 25 or 50/1, I can’t remember, to make the playoffs when we were bottom. It was bitter sweet making the automatic spots.

 

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/to-finish-in-top-half

 

Thats with William Hill. It wasn't on the price finder in shop but I asked at the counter and the lady phoned up and it was 14/1 (as of 7 pm last night!).

 

Yeah, all it takes is a few wins with Sky Bet and then they'll soon have you cut. I applied for a job there a few years ago so read their annual report to shareholders. They said the average bet of their customers is around 8 quid IIRC, so they are very much there to serve the casual punters. I was staking more than that (on racing) so it makes little surprise they were swift to cut. Its a bit gutting because the range of markets they offer is wide and they do some very good price boosts. Enjoy it while you can!

 

RE finishing top half, just to put some numbers on it. In the last five League One seasons the team finishing 12th had 58, 62, 65, 61 then 60 points, respectively.

City are currently on 18 pts, after 22 games played, a PPG average of 0.82.

To hit, say, 62 points (median amount needed to hit 12th in the last five years), we need to improve that figure to 1.35 ish.

In other words, from our remaining 24 matches we need to somehow gain 44 points. It is a tall order, we'd probably have to win another 13 matches and get five draws or so, which means we can afford to lose about six more games between now and May.

Looking at our fixtures, although a big ask, I don't think it is impossible *IF* we beat Scunthorpe and can make up for lost time with a team carrying momentum forward.

Remaining homes which appear winnable:

Scunthorpe
Accrington (started season well but dropped away)
Southend
Fleetwood
Plymouth
Blackpool
Gillingham
Wimbledon

Winnable aways:

Rochdale
Wycombe
Walsall
Oxford
Bristol Rovers
Coventry
Scunthorpe

It isn't all black and white and we are asking a drastic transformation from a team who have, so far, been big disappointments, but in the next month, taking out the Sunderland away game, we have Scunny (H), Rochdale (A), Accrington (H) and Shrewsbury (H) and we need to be looking to clean up as much as possible there to gather that momentum. Plymouth finished like a train from a similar position to ourselves last season.

March looks tricky for us but we we do have Luton and Posh at home, rather than away, so might nick a few surprise draw here and there. We have an interesting last month to the season, Bristol R (A), Coventry (A), Gillingham (H), Scunny (A) and then Wimbledon (H) on the last day of the season!

 

Not cashing out

 

Best of luck. That'd be simply lovely if it came in!

 

Thank you mate