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Staying Up?

Discussion in 'City Talk' started by Nick_W_, Dec 15, 2018.

?

Staying Up or Going Down

  1. Staying Up

    165 vote(s)
    96.5%
  2. Going Down

    6 vote(s)
    3.5%
  1. Rudie

    Rudie Fringe Player
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    100% staying up, we've leaked a fair few goals over the last few games but we've shown that we know where the back of the opponents net is, so based on that I can't see us going down, performances have improved massively.
     
    Damo and Nick_W_ like this.
  2. bantamdave41

    bantamdave41 Regular Starter
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    It seems very easy this staying up malarkey.

    I just wonder if a curve ball of out of form for a team so committed to relegation form could be potential?
     
  3. Mike Hunt

    Mike Hunt Impact Sub

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    Ask again after the Accrington game on New Year’s Day. Two of the next three games are against fellow strugglers and Accrington’s wheels might have come off, they haven’t won in the league since October. Take 6-9 points from those four games and the great escape is on. Lose against Scunthorpe, Sunderland and Rochdale and heads might drop before the transfer window opens.
     
  4. bantamdave41

    bantamdave41 Regular Starter
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    Despite being better off in terms of points than Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers, the bookmakers still have us as favourites to be relegated.

    Interestingly, we are 2/1 to stay up. So you know what, I've had a play this morning... Screenshot_20181216-094303.jpg
     
    Inspector and JonButterfield like this.
  5. Bigrod

    Bigrod Captain
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    I think you are bing somewhat overly cautious with 54 points. From what I can see 51 points should be sufficient. The last time a club got relegated with 51 points was Torquay in 2005, MK Dons also had 51 points that season, but as they had a better goal difference, they avoided relegation. As far as I am aware no team has ever been relegated with 52 points. Many seasons 50 points will be sufficient to a void the drop.

    So lets aim for 52 points for assured safety.
     
  6. Bigrod

    Bigrod Captain
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    Balanced view!:thumbup:
     
  7. River_City_Bantam

    River_City_Bantam Squad Player
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    Ahem ahem ahem...you know that 54, or better 55, points for guaranteed safety is one of my hobby-horses, which I'll ride and ride til its legs fall off! Have a look back at the div. 3 (or equivalent after renamings) tables in the 80s and 90s to see why.

    But I agree with you about the points needed -- as I said in another thread, I think 52-53 will be enough. In the 2000s fewer points have been needed, in general, than in the 80s and 90s. Four going down makes it just that little bit harder, and I expect adds a few points to the total needed.

    RCB
     
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  8. Bigrod

    Bigrod Captain
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    I am referring to League 1 In its present incarnation. Given recent history, then the current pattern would strongly suggest 52 is absolutely safe and in practice as low as 50 points will usually suffice. Looking at this seasons table then the bottom four are

    21 Plymouth Argyle 22 -20
    22 Bradford City 22 -18
    23 Bristol Rovers 22 - 17
    24 AFC Wimbledon 22 - 15

    The first figure is the number of games played and the latter the number of points.

    Below is the comparable bottom four for last season on 15/12/2017

    21 Gillingham 21 - 20
    22 Plymouth Argyle 21 - 20
    23 Northampton Town 21 - 19
    24 Bury 20 - 17

    It should be noted that both Gillingham and Plymouth both avoided relegation.

    We can avoid the drop, based on history and I guess into the 50+ point should be enough to see us to safety. Ten wins and four draws out of the last twenty four matches.
     
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  9. Ollylondonbantam

    Ollylondonbantam Squad Player

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    Absolutely spot on. I’d even throw the Shrewsbury game into that. We have to look to take advantage of the home games and at very least look to avoid defeat at Rochdale. Then let’s see where we are.

    This confidence is exactly what we needed and it’s showing in performances. But let’s not get ahead ourselves, we’re still in the bottom four with a hell of a lot to do.

    I’m just thankful we brought Hopkin in and got rid of Edin Voldemort when we did. Waiting to do either post Christmas would have been a disaster.
     
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  10. Botswana Bantam

    Botswana Bantam Regular Starter
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    Epic. The stuff of Plato and Socrates. I have a tear in my eye.
     
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  11. JonButterfield

    JonButterfield Star Player
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    They may be able to stitch that up, or at least help you retain some vision.
     
  12. Aireboro Bantam

    Aireboro Bantam Impact Sub

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    Saturday was a fantastic win and vitally a brilliant performance across the pitch. But there is still a lot of work to be done to maintain it and get ourselves safe. Yes we have got ourselves off the bottom and now in striking distance of Scunthorpe but we still need to get in touch with the Rochdales, Shrewsburys, Gillinghams who always seem to have a knack of getting themselves safe.

    Saturday is yet another big, big match. But things are really looking up.
     
  13. Old city man

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    A test of our progress might well be defeating Accrington as they seem to of had the measure of us for a while.Why? Who knows,football is mystifying at times.
     
  14. Ricky

    Ricky Squad Player
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    Considering the bookmakers still have us as favourites to go down 2/1 to stay up is poor odds
     
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  15. bantamdave41

    bantamdave41 Regular Starter
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    With 25 years in the industry, with our relegation odds of 4/9, 2/1 to stay up when factoring in a profit for the bookmaker is very fair. Btw, BCFC to stay up is now shorter at 7/4.
     
  16. Ricky

    Ricky Squad Player
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    City are 1/3 at bet365 to be relegated
     
  17. bantamdave41

    bantamdave41 Regular Starter
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    But don't have a market on to stay up. Plus I've closed my bet365 account after having bets restricted.
     
  18. WilsdenBantam

    WilsdenBantam Squad Player
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    I'm sure we were 4 or 5-1 to stay up before the Plymouth game with Skybet, quite a change in only 2 league games.
     
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  19. Ricky

    Ricky Squad Player
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    Yeah bet365 are a pain with some of their markets I need to find a better bookmakers for more offers
     
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  20. bantamdave41

    bantamdave41 Regular Starter
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    Racing Post Keen on our prospects of survival. Actually fancy us to finish top half!!!
    Screenshot_20181219-193803.jpg
    Article attached.
     
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