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Players under contract after 1/7/2020

Discussion in 'City Talk' started by Bigrod, May 20, 2020.

  1. JonButterfield

    JonButterfield Star Player
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    You don't need much time to identify players who aren't right for the club.

    In Brunker's case, 5 minutes was enough to identify that he was nowhere near Football League level. Some disagreed, but he was clearly an amateur level player and minimum data was required to see that.

    Guthrie strolling round without a care in the world during his very first outing tells you all you need to know about his character. If you can't motivate yourself for your debut for a club doing much better than your last, you're heart really isn't in football. Guthrie looks as under-motivated as anyone I have ever seen at City, and when that initial verdict is espoused by every Stevenage fan who I've seen commenting on Guthrie, I'm already happy that it wasn't just my imagination.

    His next move should be to non league.
     
    Lard Arse, Fordy117 and The Evidence like this.
  2. How

    How Knows Football
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    If we got the salary cap way and it is 1.25 million I would love the club to recruit and implement a serious analytics/recruitment team. We would have room in the budget if we can convince Rupp as we are currently running at nearly 3 million out on wages so we would still be saving him money.

    But the sort of moneyball way if anyone’s seen the book or film might be the only way some sides get the edge if they don’t have an academy and are all on a similar level. They can work with McCall and ask what he needs and give him some options within budget and he can make the final decision. Plus if we find some gems and they are sold, they would already be working in the background to get the replacements in and not leave us flapping about in the window and end up with Guthrie again.

    thoughts?
     
    CT Bantam, Bigrod, Hoochy-Min and 2 others like this.
  3. bantam2708

    bantam2708 Squad Player
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    It should be the first thing on the agenda this summer after years upon years of dreadful recruitment.
     
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  4. How

    How Knows Football
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    Exactly it would pay for itself. Probably would only cost what we are paying Akpan and Riley for example if not less.
     
    bantam2708 likes this.
  5. SimonW

    SimonW Administrator
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    Player activated ones are usually tied to a certain number of appearances to give the club some protection (so you aren’t stuck with a player who hasn't played all season and is unlikely to play the next). I would imagine he has played enough for it to be active though
     
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  6. SimonW

    SimonW Administrator
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    Moneyball has never really worked in Football when teams have tried it. It needs sports like Baseball where despite being a team sport is very individual based (it’s all about who is on the plate and the mound, the rest of the players have no or limited impact really) and has very few outside influences. The less a sport is about the individuals and the more outside influences you have the more unpredictable it is and modelling it statistically becomes way less accurate
     
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  7. Hoochy-Min

    Hoochy-Min Squad Player

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    Brentford have done it quite successfully.
     
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  8. How

    How Knows Football
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    It wasn’t a post to follow the moneyball idea religiously as such. More to give people an idea of what I meant who weren’t familiar with it.
    Barnsley use the model, Brentford do and I am sure they are others. All similar ideas to look at stats and not much else and it works and I feel it would work at league two level. The Peterborough chairman has employed someone recently to look at it for them
     
  9. hippo

    hippo Impact Sub
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    You're very possibly right of course but for every Brunker there's two or three players that are just as hastily dismissed that go on to prove the pundits wrong. It's been a tough start for Guthrie. He's the face that represents the disastrous Jan transfer window and many had made their minds up about him before he'd even laced his boots up. Nothing I've seen or read about him suggests he's going to be a success here but I'm not going to write him off before he's been given a fair chance.
     
  10. SimonW

    SimonW Administrator
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    Brentford’s is based more on the setup at FC Midtjylland though. And that is it has two prongs. First they don’t have a youth setup, that was scrapped to save money. This money is then used to fund a B team and they look to hoover up players released from other teams looking for those couple of players who were released for the 'wrong reasons' and will either do a job for Brentford’s A team long term or may be able to be sold for a decent profit. Brentford’s is a little odd in that they only play friendlies, there’s a handful of clubs who take a similar approach and actually enter the B teams in the lower leagues but then I suppose not having league games means they are more flexiable so if a PL or foreign top level club has space in their U23 schedule they are always free for a game.

    The second prong is where stats come in, it’s not used to identify and sign players without seeing them but to identify undervalued and undertapped leagues to scout for bargains. They still do proper scouting and pick players based on what the scouts see unlike moneyball where stats drive the decisions but it prevents scouting when you have a limited scouting team from just looking at the obvious but overpriced leagues. Midtjylland For example had a focus on the German 2nd division for a while and picked up some great priced talent but when that success pushed prices up they switched focus to other leagues

    The problem is this kind of setup does take some time so it’s not something that is going to benefit clubs for next season. Admittedly City are part of the way having scrapped the u23 setup already but those savings would appear to be being used for the 1st team directly rather than investing in the future so you would need to find more savings to go the Brentford route
     
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    #30 SimonW, May 21, 2020
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
  11. hippo

    hippo Impact Sub
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    You're very possibly right of course but for every Brunker there's two or three players that are just as hastily dismissed that go on to prove the pundits wrong. It's been a tough start for Guthrie. He's the face that represents the disastrous Jan transfer window and many had made their minds up about him before he'd even laced his boots up. Nothing I've seen or read about him suggests he's going to be a success here but I'm not going to write him off before he's been given a fair chance.
     
  12. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    He's appeared not sure he's played, to be fair he picked an injury up at Morecambe just as we were starting to get going but certainly not the Donaldson most were hoping for :(.
     
    #32 Bronco, May 21, 2020
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
  13. A64 Bantam

    A64 Bantam Emergency Backup

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    Another option for right back would be Tyler French , he played in that position when he went out on loan to Fylde. He showed promise in the limited appearances he made for us , hopefully he can make progress next year.
     
  14. River_City_Bantam

    River_City_Bantam Squad Player
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    Good to know, and yes, he did show some promise. Still, I wonder if he's ready to be a starter for what we hope will be a promotion-chasing side. Sub apps, spot starts and see how/if he develops further might be the way to go.

    RCB
     
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  15. River_City_Bantam

    River_City_Bantam Squad Player
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    Problem with the moneyball approach is though that despite all the hoopla, just how many titles -- division, American League, World Series -- did Oakland (who really started it all) win? There's a place for its concepts, but it remains another approach with no guarantees.

    RCB
     
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  16. Skp

    Skp Fringe Player

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    I very much doubt that Vaughan will be going anywhere, I can't see anyone else paying the wages we are paying him, its a lot easier for him just to stay put. To be fair I rate him, I think in a more attacking side he's a 20 goal striker.
     
  17. Rogered Tart

    Rogered Tart Regular Starter
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    £100 million worth of investment has a lot to do with it.
     
  18. Fordy117

    Fordy117 Just call me Mr Flip-Flop!
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    Donaldson, Doyle and Vaughan all season we wouldn't be 9th.

    Funny all 3 kind of cost Bowyer his job... Rhodes letting Doyle go on loan, Donaldson getting injured then Vaughan falling out with Bowyer because Bowyer was a negative bore that would struggle to get the best out of any forward.
     
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  19. SimonW

    SimonW Administrator
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    Yeah even in Baseball there is a point where having more money to throw around trumps stat-based recruitment. The bigger teams can get away with a dew of their expensive players flopping. It's more effective at taking smaller sides and making them 'competitive' rather than making them champions
     
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  20. Fordy117

    Fordy117 Just call me Mr Flip-Flop!
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    Momeyball in football doesn't work. Think Liverpool's current owners were all money ball when they first came in but scrapped in...

    1) Get a decent manager or one you want to back
    2) Make sure recruitment is spot on. It's not always about the cost. It's about the right fit.
    3) Have a few decent youth players.
    4) Have a plan
    5) Know how you want to play.

    When you look at the current best team in the world in Liverpool these 5 points they got perfectly. One of the reasons UTD might be back in the mix next season or season after is they have these points covered now.

    Bradford fail on all the points.
     
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