Match Thread Exeter (A) Tue 16/11/2021 & Tue 30/11/2021 19:45

I’ve used xG in my betting for years. I paid for my house deposit five years ago from betting using it, so I know it works!

The xG Philosophy by James Tippett (only a fiver or so) is a book Id recommend to any sceptic or person wanting to learn more - Brentford are a superb case in point of a football club using football data effectively.

in the situation you mention, the xG doesn’t get reset. It just means new players will be responsible for creating the chances in games, that get converted into an xG value and added to your cumulative totals.

New signings can obviously lead to big changes in the numbers though.

RE the predictions. Please see my earlier post - i think us, Sutton and Barrow will climb. Harrogate, Exeter, Swindon and Tranmere will lose ground from their playoff positions (last update of data was 30th Oct). Port Vale and FGR are strong teams on the numbers. If they keep their players, both will go up in auto spots IMO.

 

It's a lagging indicator.

It's based on the matches we've played, the players who played, the formations we used, where people had a shot from (with those closer to the goal having a higher weighting than long range efforts) and other factors but all in all it is calculating what happened in the past

It is a useful prediction of what could happen in the future IF - we use the same players, in the same formation with the same tactics.

When those things (and other factors) change for the match on Saturday then its much less relevant. Paradoxically, if we had more shots from outside the box that could actually see the xG drop because we're shooting from long range with a lower chance of scoring. So it's not just about how many shots but who has them and from where.

 

Yes, our Swindon win might not be as good as it really seemed if you trust xG data.

 

The rule I understand was that a MAXIMUM of 5 subs could be used and Exeter used 6. The bit I didn’t understand was the frequencies throughout the game they could be used.

 

What was used during Covid and I think it's been applied to the FA Cup is that sides can make a maximum of 5 subs but can only make the subs on three occasions. So they can't do them one at a time because this could be used to run down the clock I guess. They'd have to be 3+1+1 or 2+2+1 or something.

 

Your last point there is the key.

yes, it is using past analysis to predict the future, just as we would look at share prices and pension fund values to try make an educated prediction as to what might happen in the future. There’s no guarantee with any of it, but these data boffs that work out xG have analysed thousands and thousands of football matches. They know you are 0.7 or 70 % likely (i think its that anyway) to score a pen as they’ve worked out that probability from a meaningful data set.

they also know how often we are to score from any position on the pitch. I’ll stop going on now. Enjoying watching Crankshaw in this cup thriller v Bolton

 

Ok clear. I might get the book thanks for the tip. Out of interest, what sort of betting do you do with it? Cos I'm thinking that if a team has a decent xG...they "should" be near the top of the table, and therefore lower odds. But then again, look at us. I've just had a look at Bet365, and we're 3.75 to get promoted, which are pretty short odds considering our bad run. 101.00 to get relegated You might want to stick a few quid on Port Vale, who are 8/1 to win outright.

 

What xG tells us at this point in the season is as a squad we aren't good enough to go up. It's telling us our players aren't good enough to score enough goals to win games.

 

Ok thanks for explaining

 

I used to look for teams that had a high xG value for scoring and conceding and back them in ‘both teams to score’ accumulators. Back then the odds were close to evens and sometimes odds against for btts. Nowadays the bookies know how good the data is and use it to shape their markets more efficiently and the same bets are closer to 4/6 in many cases.

there was a day when i had seven or eight matches come in all in one day and I had them in with a horse I liked. I won a year’s salary from betting a third of a months salary. So I’ve always been a believer.

these days I use xG to pick my anteposts. I dont bet big now as Ive moved professions but i have usually made a profit most years. I look for teams who, at the end of the season, were top six for xG for or xG against and then have done summer transfer business to think they could improve the area of the two that was holding them back.

You can’t win everytime but its not a laborious task to look at the freely available content from stattos like the Experimental 3-6-1 blog.

 

Is this an Exeter thread or an xG, whatever that is, thread?

 

I would expect this to be sorted this week one way or another.

With Round 2 being two week on Friday the options are place one of us through to play Cambridge, or hold a replay on the day of R2.

We have a free date on the Tuesday before R2 but Exeter play Sat/Tues for the next two week.

If we are made to replay on R2 date it gives basically no room for a tie and a potential replay before R3 and the FA won't want that.

I think on that basis, a team will go through now without another game.

 

Its saying they haven’t been good enough at converting those chances, yes.

but the key thing, which fordy wouldn't acknowledge, is that we’ve gone from a team who xG data said should have been 22nd under Trueman and Sellers last year, to a side who rank top of the division.

we have made progress.

yes, we still need more quality.

do you trust our strikers will up their conversion rates? (None are historically prolific other than a few of Cook’s seasons).

I don’t think so personally, not enough to go up automatically, anyway. I think with chance levelling out we can press for playoffs.

But agree we need signings in Jan to properly increase our output and be fully serious about promotion.

 

Its city related following on from ott criticism after last nights result. Posters asked why i have faith in adams after losing 3-0 so invited the responses

 

Distance between the two teams will also sway the FA against a replay.

 

My opinion is they will not throw their officials under the bus and they will remove Exeter from the competition.

 

We have made progress under Adams although I'm not sure as much as what some think. Although xG tells us we are creating chances and not finishing them it doesnt tell us that our defence has kept 3 clean sheets in 21. That won't get you playoffs, never mind autos. Truth is we are a bang average side across the park with very little in terms of quality, something which Adams alludes to. We could finish 3rd or 4th or just as likely to finish 14th or 15th.

 

With 28 years in the industry, I can agree with @borderlescott here. Now I've not won a year's salary (well done sir) but I've paid off a good 4 figure of my mortgage this year alone (I pay off 50% of winnings from my mortgage).

Certainly not guaranteed to win but a very useful tool to use.

A site I use is...
https://footystats.org/england/efl-league-two/xg

 

We have a top six defence on the xG numbers. I think that’s a fair representation. We badly missed Canavan when he was missing and its only since he moved Songoo back into a back three we seemed to stop the rot from when Kelleher played etc.

We never seem to score more than one at the moment but suddenly if we start taking our chances clean sheets wont be the be all and end all.

 

Crankshaw puts the game beyond Bolton 5 - 3.