Eoin Doyle

I am not so sure about that. The Mcburnie money counts as income so we should have no problems with FFP. Now whether Rupp is prepared to commit to covering the extra wages is a different debate.

 

Only if they get a 5 or above match rating, sadly Anderson always goes hungry.

 

We get it over a period not all in one go, not sure it’s as simple as you think. Also remember this is football, where the rules are ridiculous at the best of times.

 

Yes they are, however even paid over the period of the transfer which I believe is common practice it would still be enough to offset the FFP.. It won't count against last year's losses for FFP, even though Rupp is using it for that.

 

One thing for sure mate the omission of him again last night for Swindon won't be used again as they are out of the FA Cup after getting beat at home by Cheltenham.It would have been interesting to see if he'd played in the second round now we're out but we"ll never know.

 

Interesting to see if GB forces him back in January last nights substitutions makes me think he thinks there are enough goals in the team without him
If he did bring him back would he be happy and would GB completely change his style of play to accommodate him I think not on both counts

 

We spunked 4m quid up the wall last season. FFP didn't seem to be an issue then.

 

By the time Bowyer has to make that choice hopefully Donaldson wil be back and playing.
I think Donaldson & Vaughan were brought in with a view to one of our top earners leaving
Unfortunatly the debate has got to focous on Doyle because of his phenominal start to the season no one would have batted an eye lid if he'd contiuded his past goalscoring record at Valley Parade.
A difficult one, although many will disagree and say bring Doyle back, apart from him not scoring for a promotion chasing rival Im not sure he will continue anywhere near the ratio he has done at Swindon so far but then again unless webring him back we will never know.

 

A measure of how many goals a player or team can be expected to have scored.

If you imagine the pitch broken down into imaginary squares, analysts keep a log of how many goals are scored from each area. They factor in whether the shot or header was from a cross or not, or on the players weaker foot.

They have a database of hundreds of thousands of games, so know the probability of a player scoring from the position they shoot or head from.

You can use it to see which players are underperforming and which are performing better than expected.

Doyle would have been expected to score 8 for Swindon this year but has scored 16. He’s dispatching chances ruthlessly.

Both Donaldson and Vaughan have been wasteful for us.

City create more chances than Swindon do.

Would highly recommend a new book called The Expected Goals Philosophy by James Tippett for anyone interested in xG (£9.99 off Amazon).

xG has been used by professsional gamblers for years to win millions off the bookies (looking for teams who are underestimated by the bookies etc) and is a term gradually creeping into the media.

Some fascinating stuff in the aforementioned book about how Brentford used it to shape their recruitment and nurture talented players to sell on for big profit. Also some revealing stuff RE the Messi v Ronaldo debate. Well worth a read.

 

Don't need to purchase a book to see that Messi is by far the superior player. Ronaldo great goal scorer but when was the last time you saw him take on the whole team and slot it away or split the defence open with 50/60 yard ball. It's not even a close debate. Back on topic, Interesting to know we create more chances than Swindon do. My first thought is that we were solid/efficient in front of goal as I've not really seen us work the opposition keeper that much and taken the limited chances we've created and ground out a tight win. Donaldson has been wasteful but other than that I wouldn't describe us as a free flowing attacking side creating chance after chance. Still waiting for the game when we really turn someone over by 4/5 or 6 with a bit of luck.

 

We were talking about it at the game last night - what formation do Swindon play this season to get the most out of Doyle?

 

4231

 

It would be pretty simple for us to replicate that system to benefit Doyle. It would upset Vaughan and Donaldson but if it gets us goals then so be it.

 

It's not so much the formation that would need to change but the role the striker plays. For me, Vaughan is asked to contribute way too much in terms of general play, dropping deep, pulling out wide etc. I watched swindon on saturday and doyle was asked to do nothing except stay on the shoulder of the last defender, make intelligent runs and finish the chances he got. If Bowyer is prepared to let Doyle concentrate on scoring goals rather than do everything else then I think he'll succeed, but I'm not sure Bowyer will allow that.

 

So, Doyle didnt play in the fa cup for swindon or us.

Maybe they have something else in mind come january- with his current goalscoring feats sell him on for a nominal fee to a L1/L2 club that will pay for his services.
Wont be cup tied either.
City then can use that towards making one of our loans permanent.

 

Can't play for anyone else this season

 

Ahh, in short moneyball for football

 

It drives the whole game now. Not just gambling, but recruitment and analytics. The analytics side is massive and growing. Not surprising as such things been massive in other sports in the US for years. Even City employ a performance analyst don’t they?

City have access to Wyscout too - which is where the xG above came from.

Its a case of embrace it or get left behind for clubs and coaches. Won’t be possible to discuss match stats without referencing it in a few years.