Covid & Face Masks at VP

Schools are back in Scotland or Masks don't work...

 

Not a surprise that it's worse than last year is it? Weren't we just coming out of a partial lockdown last August?

 

Didn't realise that about the schools. Should probably expect a similar pattern down here in a few weeks I suppose.

 

they are rising. There was a dip a few weeks ago but they are rising again. Graph below shows percentage change in 7 day period

 

Schools are only just back so probably too soon for that to be the cause. More likely it is the bounce from their last relaxation of rules

 

Scottish schools have been back since last Wednesday, so just 5 days.

 

The schools bring back a boost in testing. More tests, more cases.
So for the last week plus school children and teachers have been testing far more than they have for the last 6 weeks, that creates a swell in numbers.

England is nearly at the bottom of the cases per 100k list for the 4 nations, it is also the only one of the 4 to drop masks.

 

Has there been a rise in tests? The total
Number in the uk has dropped

 

The week before and week after schools go back show a massive rise in tests.

Clearly more tests = more cases. These cases however probably exist anyhow it's just they weren't picked up.

So this rise is only for reporting as it existed anyhow. Its not caused by the schools, its the testing because of the schools.

 

On 13th about 5% tested positive but a week later it was running at about 10%. So yes more tested but also a higher proportion were positive, so not just down to more tests

 

Positivity rate is a waste of time. In Keighley they had a tent outside Asda doing tests. The more people they get in there to test the lower the positivity rate is because the majority of people going to Asda are doing so because they feel well and need some shopping.

Compare that to a normal testing centre where people only tend to go if they suspect they have Covid.

If people are going because they are showing signs of Covid then the positivity rate is going to be higher.

There is a large number of people who also go for tests because a LFT came back positive, so they are testing to confirm a positive which makes the positivity rate shoot up. There is nothing you can really read into the positivity rate if you can manipulate the people who are going for a test. If their LFT comes back negative they are unlikely to register the test as negative or go get a swab test to confirm that negative.

I could help being the rate down by testing daily, but it's pointless so I don't.

 

yea the positive rate would be higher if it was just symptomatic people testing but you are saying the increase in cases is due to the increase in testing due to schools returning. Those extra tests are asymptomatic people so if anything the positive rate should drop, not rise like it has.

 

Thousands of LFT which are coming back as negative are not being recorded, people are only recording them or following them up in the most part of they come back positive.

This drives up the positivity rate.

 

Good point Storck. Only this week some media reporting a new variant and stronger is on its way.
Not a surprise as a friend of mine in the NHS sector told me several weeks ago before the media broke it so I kept it to myself until it broke. Apparently some areas of the Medical world are suggesting Lockdown by end November and Jimmy Krankie was sowing seeds in her Press call yesterday. Great just great.

 

Krankie is on a power trip, thats why they had daft rules like you have to wear a mask at a wedding ceremony but not at a reception, and you can't drink standing up.

I think the return to normal makes it almost impossible to go back now. Unless something catastrophic happens people won't comply.

The people happy with lockdowns and constantly being scared by figures aren't the ones you need to convince as they will comply regardless. You tell someone who is currently travelling the country to every game their team plays they can't go when they see the risk is minimal and they will this time push back as they don't see the risk to themselves as High enough to justify it.

 

I’m sure you’re right, I know I feel a bit like that. Was just stating a few facts.

 

It’ll be awful if cases get out of control again and further restrictions are made, we’re as protected against this as we’re going to be certainly in this country anyway as most are now vaccinated and everyone who wants one will have done by late September. So where does that leave us going forward if we had another lockdown? For me it ends the hope of ever having normality back as the vaccine has proven it doesn’t actually destroy the virus and cut transmission 100%. It’s not going away so we have two choices, live with it or live with permanent restrictions of some sort and a new normal. It’s pointless just going in and out of lockdowns forever.

 

Spot on !

 

and there in lies the issue. Change will only be accepted if something catastrophic happens by which time it is too late