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COVID-19

Discussion in 'General Chat' started by king karl, Feb 15, 2020.

  1. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    Maybe. But so would be not driving or not smoking.

    A tiny, tiny, tiny impact on the NHS.
     
  2. Faithful Bantam

    Faithful Bantam Squad Player

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    Exactly right. Tomorrow's supposed to be very warm and sunny - i'll be honest, I'm worried that a lot of people won't wear enough sunscreen and I'll end up getting sunburnt...
     
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  3. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    The way the media are reporting the current situation that's the way its looking, the decision will be pushed back 4 weeks.
     
  4. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    Complely agree they will. And it will be the wrong decision done for the wrong reasons.
     
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  5. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    Yes all because some people won't have a tiny tiny injection, with regards smoking it's not allowed inside because it has possible consequences for none smokers a positive move most would have thought, not sure about you driving comparison.
     
  6. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    No, it's because the government are petrified of the implications of that.

    But let's be absolutely clear, if people have been offered the jab now and haven't had it...then why would they have had it in 4 weeks time for the decision to be any different?

    As for smoking and driving it's still personal choices and impact on the NHS. If you as a person who is double jabbed get covid it's not because someone else hasn't had the jab.
     
  7. Bronco

    Bronco Star Player
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    But the majority will suffer for the minority, if they use the situation in Lancashire as a reason, the medical people are saying this strain is 64% more infectious that should IMO be more of a reason to protect yourself and those around you, lets hope it doesn't mutate into an even more deadlier strain as many may not accept its a personal choice.
     
  8. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    They don't need to if the government had some balls.
     
  9. Faithful Bantam

    Faithful Bantam Squad Player

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    For context.

    Number of COVID positive patients in UK hospitals 3 weeks ago = 900
    Number of COVID positive patients in UK hospitals today = 936
    Number of UK hospitals = 1257

    Less than one patient per hospital as an average

    Stay home. Save Lives. Protect the NHS from the disaster its clearly facing.
     
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  10. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Important Player
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    No it's not.
    Not wearing a seat belt isn't infectious. If you choose to take your life in your hands then it's purely your risk.
    Not having the vaccine makes you more likely to catch the virus and more likely to pass it to others. It's not the same thing at all.
    Of course we can't force people to get vaccinated. But personal choice and responsibility, that you're always banging on about, has consequences. If you decide to opt out from doing the socially responsible thing then some elements of society may decide to exclude you from their activities.
     
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  11. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    This is 100% true but the outlook on it can be different. I take it from your stance that if an unvaccinated person passes it on it is their "fault"......its the wrong word but I can't think of a better one so please don't get caught up in semantics on that.

    However, who can they actually pass it on to?

    a) unvaccinated people.....where it either circles back to personal responsibility if they are "vulnerable" or they are currently in such a low risk category that it is basically of small severe risk.

    Or

    b) vaccinated people. However the reason they they caught covid isn't solely because they have come into contact with an infected person...its because the vaccine hasn't worked for them but they just don't know it. In that scenario they are going to get it anyway since over time they will eventually come into contact with an infected person and behave like they're protected when they're actually not.

    So while previous to the vaccination of the at risk group you would be absolutely correct to go down the social responsibility line (and I would have agreed) at this stage that link is broken. Basically every severely infected person will currently only be affected because of their own personal choice or a vaccine that sadly hasn't worked on them....so what is 4 weeks going to change?
     
    #10671 Aaron Baker, Jun 12, 2021
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2021
  12. Stafford Bantam

    Stafford Bantam Captain
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    As I understand it, the main reason that the government wants to 'delay' step 4 is that the data indicates that it is the younger age groups that are the ones mainly spreading the virus, many of whom want the vaccine, but have not yet had the chance. And, of course, the more people are spreading the virus, the more people are catching the virus, especially the now dominant B.1.617.2 variant.

    The increased numbers of people with the virus are now being reflected in increased hospital numbers, which, in the UK, have increased by 25% over the last two weeks (869 on 27 May to 1,089 on 10 June). Whilst the numbers are currently low compared to previous peaks, they are rising steeply. It must also be recognised that the NHS resources per COVID patient are disproportionately high compared to an average hospital patient.

    There are currently well over 5 million people, in England alone, waiting for hospital treatment, whilst those waiting over 52 weeks has risen from around 11,000 in April 2020 to around 400,000 today. Every extra COVID patient impacts on that number.

    That, briefly, is the logic behind the expected announcement on Monday.
     
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  13. Storck

    Storck Regular Starter

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    Hancock has had a month and still not backed that claim up with any figures even though he was asked for details at the time
     
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  14. Storck

    Storck Regular Starter

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  15. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    So we seem to have 2 competing theories kicking around. 1 that they're not loosening up restrictions because of vulnerable people choosing not to get the jab and the other because people with low risk to the virus haven't had the opportunity to get jabbed yet. Neither of them make any sense to me and if Johnson is going to go down either of those routes he's going to need some serious science behind it because its not going to fly.

    You're going to have to excuse my scepticism that 1,000 Covid patients are having even the merest impact on 5m people waiting for treatment though.
     
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  16. Stafford Bantam

    Stafford Bantam Captain
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    Other than encouragement there is only one other very effective way to vaccinate those who choose not to have the vaccine and I don't think many people want to go down that route. So, I can't see why that group of people would delay step 4.

    Therefore, the government's current focus is very much on getting the vaccine out to those who want it. This should help drive down the numbers infected, even with this B.1.617.2 variant.

    As I stated above, it's all about stopping the rising number of hospital cases and allowing the NHS to get back to its routine pre-COVID work.

    On a positive note, the number of patients in hospital in Bolton (the initial B.1.617.2 hotspot) have long passed their peak and are declining steadily, albeit slowly.
     
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  17. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    I get that. But why would they reduce in the next 4 weeks.

    Infections are still going to keep going up. People who don't want the vaccine still won't have got it, people who haven't been fully protected by the vaccine still won't be protected.

    So I see what the aim is (even if the low current numbers means we have an enormous amount of headway) but I don't see why we'll be better off in 4 weeks.
     
  18. Stafford Bantam

    Stafford Bantam Captain
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    I don't expect hospital numbers to reduce in the next 4 weeks and I'm far from convinced that we'll turn the increase in infections around in that time either.

    However, regardless of what is announced on Monday, if the rest of the country follows Bolton, we'll see a rapid rise in cases (over a few weeks) followed by a slow decline. Some places are already into the rapid rise, others will follow. Four extra weeks will protect roughly 10 to 15 million more people, so the rises should be less severe in those areas that hold off the B.1.617.2 variant the longest.

    As I said many weeks ago (somewhere on this thread), I see the arrival of the B.1.617.2 variant, as causing more of a 3rd blip rather than a 3rd wave. What I do know is we need to get on and lift the restrictions well before we hit the autumn/winter period; the last thing we want is to be easing restrictions going into the winter, so it needs to happen sooner, rather than later.
     
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  19. Offcomedun

    Offcomedun Important Player
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    Unvaccinated people are more likely to pass on the virus to others. So the fewer unvaccinated people the better. If everyone is vaccinated then the chances of those for whom the vaccine doesn't work catching the disease goes down because there are few people likely to give it to them.
     
  20. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    I agree with that but I asked who they were passing it on to? For the purposes of it being personal/social responsibility.

    Of course the fewest number of unvaccinated people the better in general but I assume you're not advocating waiting until everyone is vaccinated before releasing restrictions?

    The people for whom the vaccination hasn't worked are getting the virus at some point. There's no logical way around that.
     
    #10680 Aaron Baker, Jun 12, 2021
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2021

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