COVID-19

No, you can convince me, I just want to see detail to make my mind up. That seems fair and logical. On the face of it LAs are better but are there mitigating factors, are we comparing like for like?

I'm sure they were but in some respects life was simpler. You definitely come across as anti-private sector lets put it that way. I'm similar, I view the public sector as being perfect for the repeatable underlying work that needs doing but when nationwide infrastructure needs to be put in place quickly there is not enough flexibility or resource in there to be able to do it. Maybe long terms it could be funded differently but right now, not a hope.

And once again the fact that everyone struggles with T&T shows that it isn't a UK issue but i suppose that doesn't fit the narrative. Just like acknowledging who made the mess up with excel that you mentioned earlier.

 

Figure 6 of today's infection pilot survey does not seem so far off what I have been saying for England. It has new incidence of the virus nearly levelling off on October 10th and projects falls from there. (Note that Fig 1 is a modelled projection for positive test results. Remember, they need interpetation to find actual infections due to false positives, false negatives, and how many people were tested where (at how many universities!) and probably other stuff I do not know. I don't pretend to understand all the variables they adjust for and why the difference between figs 1 and 6 is so great but the positive tests data needs modelling to estimate actual true new infection rates. So am I still excessively optimistic in suggesting a levelling of English infections in early October if Fig 6 broadly agrees? I grant there is lots of conflicting data and it's difficult to know which to give more credence to. At the end of the day, I suppose it's the hospital activity that counts and that will depend on ages infected. There's some more data on that in here. It suggests age 70+ infections on the rise so that's not good news

Https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/23october2020

 

Number of Covid cases in Bradford hospitals has dropped again. I don't know if it has a bit of a weekly cycle or not now that it seems more stable. We'll have to see. It currently has 89 in hospital and 8 in ICUs. I've seen as high as 102 and 10 over recent days. The summer lows I saw a couple of months ago were 9 and 1 but I only look in occasionally.

https://www.bradfordhospitals.nhs.uk/2020/10/23/information-about-coronavirus/

 

This was in 2018

 

Colds down, flu quiet, Covid going in all sorts of directions depending which bit you look at. Which data does government use to decide what to do?

Https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928766/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w43_FINAL.pdf

 

So R is 0 for 69% of people infected with Covid and 1 for 20%. So 89% of Covid population has R of only 0.22. It's the rest that need to be stopped - ideally without destroying the economy.

 

Link? I'd like to see the statistical evidence of how they split that out from Universities and schools.



Just to add to the oddly conflicting trends and lumpy data of late:

Welsh hospital admissions last 3 days (to 22nd) 276. Same 3 days a week ago 323. That's DOWN 15%.

Northern Ireland hospital admissions last 3 day (to 21st) 74. Same 3 days a week ago 105. That's DOWN 18%.

Scotland hospital admissions last 3 days (to 20th) 232. Same 3 days a week ago 188. That's UP 23%.

England hospital admissions last 3 days (to 21st) 2783. Same 3 days a week ago 2134. That's UP 30%.

 

The 4 countries don't all collect the admission details in the same way.

 

Here's a very interesting interactive tool because you can get local hospital admissions. So you can see that Harrogate is down recently, York has a second peak slightly up on last month's, while Wakefield is rising strongly, as is Leeds. If we look at Bradford, it still seems to be rising a bit.

https://victimofmaths.shinyapps.io/COVID_LA_Plots/

 

What has that got to do with their individual trends?

 

I don't actually know because I haven't looked into how they differ but I seem to recall some were slower than others in collecting the data and some counted possible cases originally and then updated it when the test came back so a greater delay in it being accurate.

 

I know they collect at different rates that why my comparisons latest dates are slightly offset. There's some big differences in trends there - bit there are in the local hospital data I linked to after it, too. They're interesting.



Here's an interesting age breakdown in Greater Manchester regions. Universities look to have driven it up in the wider community but are falls in students bringing it down again?

 

TImeline heatmap of hospital admissions by local authority North to South. (Click though to photo and right click to magnify.)

 

T4 anyone:

https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/health/coronavirus/stricter-tier-4-lockdown-could-be-brought-if-covid-rate-doesnt-come-down-christmas-3014113

 

Well that was a depressing read.

 

Yes mate it is.

I don't see a clear plan on how a place gets a reduce tier.

 

12 minute covid tests available at Boots now which will certify you as being "clear"

£120 though!! Let's hope pubs and restaurants don't start making them compulsory!

 

Not yet.