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COVID-19

Discussion in 'General Chat' started by king karl, Feb 15, 2020.

  1. Fordy117

    Fordy117 Just call me Mr Flip-Flop!
    Bubbles car wash

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  2. Keefly Bantam

    Keefly Bantam Important Player
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    I would wait a short while for that. Seriously hope that there are fines being dished out for non compliance of wearing face coverings.

    Top tip: go to Asda Keighley-could raise a million in no time at all.
     
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  3. Storck

    Storck Regular Starter

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  4. Frank Castle

    Frank Castle Captain
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    I don't take any notice of the 'cases' numbers. I don't think they should be used to determine anything. Hospital admissions and deaths are what actually matter.

    This virus hardly affects 85% of the people who get it, can you imagine how many people have actually had the virus. This is clearly illustrated by the number of footballers testing positive for the virus. I saw an article the other day that estimated that the actual mortality rate of Coronavirus is more like 0.05% rather than 0.5%.
     
  5. Keefly Bantam

    Keefly Bantam Important Player
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    Agree, Hospital admissions and deaths have increased substantially in the last 14 days or so. Also it is estimated that 92% of the population have not yet had the virus.
     
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  6. Aleman

    Aleman Fringe Player

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    Places that had it bad in April not getting it so bad this time and vice versa. (Click through image twice then right click "view". Then you can enlarge.)

     
    #6886 Aleman, Sep 22, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2020
  7. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    Would you not agree that there is some correlation between the number of people who get the virus and the number of people who get admitted to hospital? Even if there's a significant time difference between the two?

    There becomes a pretty obvious problem with the 0.05% figure if you consider that it's already killed 50,000 in the UK and 200,000 in the USA.
     
  8. Fordy117

    Fordy117 Just call me Mr Flip-Flop!
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    • COVID-secure guidelines will become a legal obligation for retail, leisure and tourism firms, with those who do not comply running the risk of fines of £10,000 or closure
    • The requirement to wear a face covering has been extended to staff in retail, people in taxis and everyone using hospitality services
    This basically means that staff in retail have to wear mask. They are then not going to allow people to come in not wearing mask hence the 1st bullet point about the Covid secure guidelines with become a legal obligation. Meaning masks will have to be worn by all.
     
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  9. Storck

    Storck Regular Starter

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    We shall wait and see but as legally they can not ask someone what their exemption is, covered by equality act, I’m not sure how staff will check
     
  10. Frank Castle

    Frank Castle Captain
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    Context is everything...

    Around 460 people die every day in the UK from heart disease. That's 122,000 this year so far.
    Around 450 people die every day in the UK from cancer. That's 120,000 this year so far.
     
  11. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    I know that but, I'm sorry, I'm not sure what relevance it has to either of the things I said.
     
  12. Salty

    Salty Impact Sub

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    50.000 killed by covid is a seriously flawed figure, we all know that surely by now
     
  13. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    Quite interesting but I'm nor sure what it actually shows. The guy who created it has said that he's ordered the data specifically to create this pattern and it is therefore artifactual - for example Rhonda and Blaenau Gwent have very similar phase 1 but find themselves at opposite ends of the scale for no real reason. Ordering by geography might be more useful?
     
  14. Aleman

    Aleman Fringe Player

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    It doesn't matter what order you put them in except it shows a timeline of which areas got hit hard first. I'd have put earliest at the top rather than the bottom but it doesn't matter. It shows that places that got hit hard in wave 1 have got it lightly this time and those that did not get hit so hard are getting it bad in wave 2. I'd like to see a some more data, though as it's up to Sept 20th and we know several of the later days might get more data added. They did similar graphics of US states that showed states hit hard in wave 1 missed wave 2. The takeaway is its unusual to get two bad waves, though there are odd exceptions. It's mostly one wave and done. (I can't vouch for sources or accuracy of data.)

    [​IMG]
     
    #6894 Aleman, Sep 22, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2020
  15. Frank Castle

    Frank Castle Captain
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    Sorry half my post was missing for some reason. The rest of my post read...

    These people have died FROM these diseases. Coronavirus has NOT killed 50,000 people in this country. 50,000 people have not died FROM Coronavirus 50,000 people have died WITH Coronavirus. There's a massive difference. The actual number of deaths from Coronavirus would pale into insignificance when compared to these numbers.
     
  16. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    It does a bit because if you're designing a graph to show that pattern then that's what you'll get. For numbers in phase 2 to be "redder" than phase 1 they need to be higher (obviously) but when you've gone through months of one and about 2 weeks of another it will look that way.

    Ordering it in that specific fashion draws your eyes to the pattern when ordering it in a different way may look more random.

    It is interesting though. I'd get rid of all the really tiny places - theres no point judging places that have gone from 2 cases to 4 alongside places that have gone from 100 to 200 and show them on the same colour scale - and randomise the sort but it is definitely worth consideration.
     
  17. Aaron Baker

    Aaron Baker Impact Sub

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    That may be true but and it's a fair distinction.

    Would those people have died if they hadn't contracted Covid though? The excess deaths suggest not.

    Just because it's not the only factor - I believe few death certificates only show 1 anyway - doesn't mean that it isn't a factor at all.
     
  18. Fordy117

    Fordy117 Just call me Mr Flip-Flop!
    Bubbles car wash

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  19. Fordy117

    Fordy117 Just call me Mr Flip-Flop!
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    Just won't let people in without masks.
     
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  20. Storck

    Storck Regular Starter

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    And get taken to court
     

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