COVID-19

I may have my wires crossed here, but have I just been reading on the other site that you’ve recently got back from Spain?

 

It's thrived in hot weather in Eastern Europe, the Americas and Indian subcontinent so that makes hot weather here unlikely to have made any difference. It must have calmed down for other reasons.

All the more recent waves of virus seem to be producing more asymptomatics and significantly less illness and death. UK hospital admissions have fallen from about 160 per day to about 80 per day in the last month. English hospital deaths are down from around 12 per day to around 5 per day in the last month and that should continue to follow the admissions trend lower in weeks ahead. The G614 strains of the virus that predominate now are clearly less severe (and probably spread more quickly because of that) than the D614 strains that were dominant in February.

 

Looks like the R rate is on the rise...back shortly, off to pick up some Strepsils just in case.

 

Don't forget the dettol as well.

 

Genuinely interested to know where did you get that info from?

If we can keep that trend going until we get a decent vaccine then we are doing really well.

I have seen a chart on the ONS website for England and Wales for June 2020 that had total deaths for Covid 19 at 2525 (line 1 on the spreadsheet-table 1 tab) and Influenza and pneumonia (line 62) at 909
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales

Total deaths due to Influenza alone in 2019 was in England and Wales 1,223.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/influenzaandcovid19deathdata

 

Well I am not sure those figures are correct because on the ONS website the combined deaths for Flu and Pneumonia in England and Wales for June was 909 -I know its not July but the trend was a downward one from March-and Covid deaths were 2525. So by my reckoning Scotland and NI had a significantly large number (eg 5000+) of flu and pneumonia deaths and virtually no Covid deaths. Doesn't add up to me at all.

See what you think? Open up the June spreadsheet and go to table 1 lines 1 and 62.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales

 

Talk on local TV that in the future rather putting a whole City in lock down they will look at it in areas ie BD5 may have no new cases whereas BD8 may have several so just BD8 and other areas of the City would be in lock down.

 

They were right to do a major lockdown to quell the spread, though it should have been done a lot sooner.

Selective lockdowns should have been implemented around mid May when more data was held and some places were completely covid free.

 

Another week of a district wide lockdown, whilst Blackburn have moved to a localised approach.

The postcode map shows the same areas week after week with high cases and no sign of them coming down.

Large parts of West Yorkshire have been thrown under the bus when rates in many of those areas are constantly 0-2 and a large resentment is growing in these areas. The goodwill of these places is disappearing and when it maybe called upon in the future it won't be there when it is needed.

The governement and council have really screwed up with this one size fits all approach which is like holding a school class back to the slowest pupil rather than focusing on that pupil and bringing them to the level of the rest of the class.

A focused proactive approach was required long before lockdown was implemented but a blind eye was turned.

When lockdown was imposed the high level areas weren't focused, a message of we are all in it together was reeled out which was patronising to the areas where the rates were constantly 0-2 but were made to feel like part of the problem.

When the virus was hospitalising and killing people in large numbers people took notice, now with Bradford declared a hotspot but with only 1 death in two weeks fatigue has hit in.

The lockdown restrictions make no sense, how can it be against the rules to sit in your parents back yard from a safe distance but ok to wonder round a few pubs, go out for a meal and navigate large shopping centres whilst also expected to send your children to school in a few weeks and turn up to work everyday.

It's also contradictory, they speak of it being an issue that multi generations live in one household, if that is an issue why is it an issue to see your parents when the issue is of those already living in the same house.

The long term social and mental damage being inflicted is probably out weighing the few hundred cases we are seeing a week as it stands.

 

I agree with pretty much all the rest of your post, especially about the fatigue people are feeling.

But I've heard this several times and I don't particularly feel like it makes no sense.

Of course it would be "safe" to go see your parents from a safe distance but they obviously don't trust people to behave sensibly around friends and family, especially outside of public spaces.

To me they're saying that you're safer being amongst a lot of people who you are willing to distance from rather than a few people who you are very likely to want to get close to for prolonged periods, hug, etc, etc. To me that makes perfect sense.

 

Bottom table: flulike deaths week ending August - 789. Covid deaths - 152.

http://covidtracker.uksouth.cloudapp.azure.com/

It's worth noting that the low for flulike deaths usually occurs in August and then they start slowly rising again into the autumn, before taking off sharply at some point depending on weather and prevailing flu strain and immunity to it. Flu tends to circulate all year in care homes thorugh the summer and then spread to hospitals, nurseries/schools (a new year of kids with little immunity) and general public in the autumn. With care homes being ultracautious about visiting and the like at the moment, it might be different this year.

 

I agree I was just wondering where the Daily Fail got their data from-cos on the ONS website it is nothing like what is contained in the article. Unless I am missing something obvious?

 

Just seen they are now saying they are hoping a vaccine will be available for NEXT winter.

I thought the upbeat updates from all the vaccine manufacturers seemed to have gone quiet

 

I wonder if the trials aren't going as well as hoped?

 

It was the English Chief Medical Officer that said they hoped to have one for next winter, 21/22. And then only a reasonable chance