Brexit

Sorry, I meant to quote this on the bottom of the previous post but replied before I got to it.

I think this is the crux of the point. A bad deal for us is what they are pushing for, that is their target. No deal is what they actually fear.

So our position is completely opposite. No deal is better than what they're pushing for. If that what happens then that's what happens.

 

Because they are governed by far right, racist authoritarians who refuse to follow the progressive principles upon which the EU is based. The EU (or EEC) came into being as a response to fascist dictators in Germany, Italy and Spain plunging Europe into a second horrendous world war. It has always been primarily an organisation designed to keep the peace in Western Europe. In sharp contrast to the previous thousand years, it has been spectacularly successful in that aim for over 60 years. If Eastern European nations with regressive attitudes wish to continue to receive the benefits of EU membership then they need to learn to abide by modern civilised standards, not mimic the fascist attitudes that the EU was designed to replace.

 

I don't think so, and nor do most economists. We are massively dependent on EU imports for food and 'just in time' supply chain components for car manufacture etc. The increased costs and huge increase in bureaucracy from tariffs under no deal would be economically and socially disastrous for us. Not to mention shortages of drugs, food etc in the short term due to logjams at the lorry ports.

 

And that situation was always a possibility with Easter bloc countries, countries like France, Germany, Italy, Spain even Greece have their right wing political parties who could go down the same route, the EU will have a problem if Turkey is allowed to join, but that wont happen were told.

 

I'm not sure any economists have reacted to today's revelations of what the EU is pushing for unless I've missed it?

What you're talking about is the general outlook on brexit I believe?

So you truly believe that signing up long term to be held to unknown rules, which we have no say over, and which could be detrimental to us and beneficial to our nearest competitor is better than no deal?

 

Not a chance that Turkey will be allowed to join the EU while they have Erdogan in charge.

 

Alright Ayn Rand.

 

This supply chain stuff makes me laugh, it just isn't true.

 

Yes, fair comment, I was more talking about the general choice between deal and no deal.
I think we're in a totally shit situation. Between a rock and a hard place. I believe no deal will be a disaster, both short and long term. But, as you say, signing up to unknown rules that we have no say over is also highly unpalatable. It still might be better than no deal - depending on just how bad no deal turns out to be. But I don't have that crystal ball.

 

Oh right. All the supermarket firms and car manufacturers are lying, are they?

 

Indeed. In what parallel universe (outside of Trevor's head) has the kind of low tax economy he proposes led to high wages? We've been hearing about the 'trickle down' effect for decades now and all it's led to is falling living standards, massive job insecurity, greater inequality and more people on the breadline or homeless. The rich have got richer, squirrelled their money away in tax havens and utterly failed to invest in our economy. Expect more of the same if no deal happens.

 

I think that's a fair outlook. I do think there has to be certain lines in a deal that we don't cross - and not just the symbolic ones like fishing.

What has come out today is a complete no go in my eyes and for it to pop up at the 11th hour after basic non-regression seems to have been agreed indicates to me that the EU aren't being truly straightforward at the end of the process.

 

Believe it or not there are other supply methods other than JIT that can work. If you think everything will just run dry while food manufacturers/farmers suffer huge dents in their turnover because they can't get invoices out you are totally mad. The way you are talking makes it sound like we are heading for armageddon, business will talk louder than anything else.

Do you think we struggle to import goods from outside of the EU? I can tell you we don't, even under the extreme pressures of COVID supply has been limited but hasn't reached the sort of levels that you are trying to say that will happen without a deal.

 

I mean it just fundamentally combusts on contact with oxygen. If it’s a good idea to reject trade with your closest economic superpower, in order to make yourself an economic superpower, then why has nobody else done it? I’m not saying the trade deal is perfect, but let’s get real, not having one is quite definitely worse, economically, than having one.

Why would any organisation want to suddenly move their HQ here? We don’t make anything that anyone wants.

 

Are you sure we don't make anything that anybody wants?

• MINI – MINI, MINI Clubman and MINI Countryman, in Cowley, Oxford
• Honda – Civic and CR-V in Swindon
• Toyota – Auris, Auris hybrid and Avensis in Burnaston, Derbyshire
• Nissan – Juke, Qashqai, Note and Leaf and Infiniti Q30 in Sunderland, Tyne and Wear
• Lotus – Elise, Evora and Exige in Norfolk
• Aston Martin – DB9, Vantage, Rapide, Vanquish, and DB11 in Gaydon, Warwickshire
• Bentley Motors – Continental, Flying Spur and Mulsanne in Crewe, Cheshire
• Rolls Royce – Ghost and Wraith in Goodwood, West Sussex
• Jaguar – F-Pace and XE in Solihull, and F-type, XJ, XF and XE in Castle Bromwich, Birmingham
• Land Rover – Discovery Sport and Range Rover Evoque in Halewood, Merseyside, and Range Rover, Range Rover Sport and Land Rover Defender in Solihull, West Midlands
• Vauxhall – Astra at Ellesmere Port and Vivaro van in Luton

 

Yup. And most of those things rely significantly on 'just in time' supply chains of components imported from the EU and assembled here. All the major car manufacturers have stated that the addition of tariff charges and increased bureaucracy would be disastrous.

 

Business up and down the country has been prepping for Brexit for at least 2 years now, supply chain teams know what is happening and what to expect. Every retailer, distributor and manufacturer I have spoken to has plans in place to deal with what us coming so if you think multi billion pound companies don't have a strategy in place to deal with TEMPORARY delays then you are probably wrong or I'd certainly hope you are!

 

Of course we import goods from outside the EU. But 52% of our imports and 43% of exports are with the EU, which dwarfs our trade with any other nation. And our manufacturers (what's left of them) don't rely on non-EU countries for just in time supply chains. So any increase in the cost of that trade is massively significant.
I'm not saying we won't be able to get goods from the EU, except perhaps in the short term when there will be logjams at the ports until they eventually sort out the paperwork. Of course we will. But the tariffs and extra paperwork will make those imports more expensive to manufacturers and retailers working on small margins and our exports less competitive. Our manufacturers and retailers have been stressing the huge impact this will have, for the last four years. Do you think they are all lying?

 

Business moves head offices to countries with the lowest tax that is a fact, The EU allowed the Irish republic to lower corporation tax to around 12% against an average of around 22% in the EU to help its struggling economy, The result is that major operators have moved the head office to Ireland even though they do little business there, Business hates paying tax and will go where it is the lowest if politically acceptable to the shareholders, As an example Amazon has a huge sales turnover in the UK but has moved its European headquarters to Ireland because it pays around 12% tax on profits where in the UK it was paying 19%, Many many companies have done the same and made the Republic a prosperous country it would not have been without the help from the EU,

 

Singapore, Low taxes, High wages, Free education at good standards and free good healthcare for everyone, It is a fact that where taxes are reduced the economy will expand providing more employment and better wages,
One example was the reduction in tax for the wealthy, When it was reduced it actually increased the countries tax take, The more money you allow companies to keep of the profits they make the more they will invest and the economy grow,
The reduction in the USA of business taxes produced a huge jump in the economy and a huge jump in employment
The rich try and avoid taxes yes which is a good reason to lower them, You seem to believe the fallacy that money sits in tax havens or squirreled away, This is nonsense as it goes in to banks and investment or bonds to produce more wealth which betters the economy, Money never sleeps or rests for long in accounts